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that was an easier forecast because the arctic air was already established in place...........

NAMs will around through at least the rest of this winter.

The collapse south of the GFS begins .Save a horse

Doesn't it feel like we haven't had a classic "N & W Special" in awhile? I mean the last several years have been more S & E specials!

GFS again with the Dec 6-7 event

Good thing round 1 panned out.. 1-2 more just based on radar

clump of snowflakes, plus a couple of really good ones

8” max now . Most should end up 3-6” which is perfect . December is winter and always used to snowball start to finish . It’s back

Well overdue for you! How much?

Looks like @Voyager would be near the bullseye if this verifies.

Snow will certainly be sticking to all surfaces if the rates on the 18z GFS end up close to reality. Great run for most of CTP.

Chicago has had 13 straight hours of snow and moderate snow for the last 5, with more to come and temperatures in the 20s. Jealous. For reference, Chicago averages about as much snow annually as the interior Lower Hudson valley.

Is this winter storm Brutus?

outside my back door. It’s legit right now folks

So far, 5"-7" of snow has fallen in the greater Chicago area. Daily snowfall records for November 29th have fallen in both Rockford and Chicago. The snowstorm will continue to blanket parts of the Great Lakes Region tonight into early tomorrow. Chicago and Milwaukee will likey see 6"-12" of snow. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Detroit could pick up 4"-8". Toronto could see 3"-6". In the New York City area, tomorrow and Monday will be somewhat milder. Showers are possible on Monday as a cold front moves across the region. Generally colder than normal conditions could then continue into or through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Nevertheless, December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. Moreover, a storm could affect the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing 0.50"-1.50" precipitation to the region. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall of the season. Interior sections have the highest probability of seeing accumulations of snow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -3.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

We do spring in winter well.

what if the Canadian shifts back to its OZ accumulating snow solution ? And Euro shifts south ? there has been a wide range of differing model solutions in the last 24 hours from the amped GFS and Nam brings liquid all the way up to Albany and the Canadians 2 - 4 inches North Jersey

What are your thoughts here ? ( bolded part ) Tomer Burg @burgwx With the addition of the AIFS ensemble, I've also added plots comparing the EPS to the AIFS ensemble: https://polarwx.com/models/?model=comparison Some major differences emerge between them heading into the 2nd week of December, with the EPS colder than the AIFS in the eastern US: Differences between the EPS & AIFS ensembles are largest over Alaska, with the EPS showing a deep cutoff low over AK reinforcing western US ridging. The AIFS ensemble does not explicitly show such a strong cutoff low, but also has larger spread in 500mb heights than the EPS.

In @canderson Heat Island of downtown Harrisburg, I’ve heard him claim snow is not sticking, even though 99% of roads in the area have caved, lol!

I think the coast stays all rain but maybe some flakes.

When the forecast low is 27 ?

Lol no but warm ass asphalt is

Previous hour... METAR KORD 292051Z 13013G21KT 1/4SM R10L/2200V2600FT +SN FZFG VV006 M02/M03 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP190 SNINCR 1/6 P0008 60020 T10221033 56049 $

Models are confused right now to say the least - expect further changes in future runs ...........

I think you are looking good for at least a light-moderate event in the city within the next 2 weeks.