All Activity

That one section of New Jersey can be such an outlier with warm days.

I love fall and being in the Goldilocks zone for wx this time of year, so I’m with you on decent warmth—I just don’t like the upper level look. I want to see step downs. We keep saying these warm falls are fine and then I’m looking at +2 DJF and 30% of snow climo on March 15. I guess you could say I’m spooked

On vacation, luckily remembered to do this today on wife's computer (didn't bring mine). Bad thing is 1-took a while to remember the website log-in and 2-couldn't remember my password. FINALLY got in, lol. OK numbers for October DCA: +0.6 NYC: +0.7 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -0.2 ATL: +0.8 IAH: +0.5 DEN: -0.4 PHX: -0.2 SEA: +0.7

My feeling is that it isn't going to snow anyway, and it's getting darker earlier, so I enjoy the nice weather being outside as much as possible. My energy bill appreciates it with no AC or Heat. By early to mid November, I'm game for sustained normal to below weather for snowmaking. Have a full month+ though before it starts to matter. 48F and rain doesn't do much for me.

81 the high here today

I really don’t like this but if there’s a saving grace hopefully we snap back to troughing as we get closer to November.

That sounds about right as we head into the lower sun angle time of year. Mother Nature loves prolonging the sweet spot of temperatures in the 60-80F range as long as possible.

Just found this guy. Seems reasonable

Oh well, it's a dud and out to sea.

big 'uns

September 16-30, 2025 is on track to finish with 0.47" rainfall for Central Park. Since 1869, there have been 25 cases with 0.50" or less rainfall during the second half of September. Among those cases, 60% went on to have a drier than normal October while 40% went on to have a wetter than normal October. The latest CFSv2 monthly forecast shows a drier to much drier than normal October: The latest ECMWF weeklies also show a drier than normal start to October: CPC's 6-10-day precipitation forecast also favors drier than normal conditions: However, its monthly forecast from September 18th indicates equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. Finally, of the 8 years with mean temperatures of 70° or above during the second half of September coupled with < 1.00" rainfall, 75% were followed by a drier than normal October. The two exceptions were 2005 and 2019. All said, the odds lean toward a drier than normal October, but that isn't cast in stone.

The Euro weeklies control today flat out drops the hammer to begin November. There is some support from the ensemble. Yes, I know...waayy out there and huge grains of salt. Just wanted to share that winter is beginning to show up on some model runs at very long range as it should.

Shame they couldn't be there during the peak, but it's good to have data.

Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October.

Couple of wildlife pictures. The first one was from a friend’s trail camera a few miles away from where we live and the second one was at the golf course today.

You can explain it to him but you can't make him understand. I've given up.

Highs TEB: 91 EWR: 89 New Brnswck: 87 LGA: 85 TTN: 85 PHL: 86 ISP: 84 BLM: 83 NYC: 83 ACY: 82 JFK: 79

81.7 in Syosset & 81.2 in Muttontown. Baseball field was scorching today.

Put up or shut up time for the gulf

Recon is finally into Humberto. The pressure is 929 mb. There are a couple wind maxima and the max wind on the first pass was only 120 kts flight level.

No there isn't, but that's not how the Ravens operate. They have fired a coordinator during the season(like once), but not a HC. Harbaugh isn't going anywhere until after the season, and I doubt it happens then either. IMO Pagano should be promoted to DC like NOW. I really doubt that happens either though because Orr has the excuse of a bunch of key injuries to save his ass. We are stuck with the status quo.

It appears Imelda is fighting some dry air getting pulled in from the west.

Keep in mind… We’re getting towards the time of the year where above normal may not necessarily be “warm” in the sensible weather. This relativity is especially true when you get towards Halloween. As an aside, the first week of October may have some exceptionally anomalies, but we’ll see… Also +.01 is above normal That chart doesn’t mean you’re gonna roast because it’s extra dark red

83 today. Hot on the golf course