All Activity

His yard will maximize whatever moisture that area gets. The elevation and a couple degrees colder does it most of the time.

Agree although if it sets up in Catskills HV may get subsidence/shafted but that is a reality of these storms sometimes .

How long ago did D.C. get added to the Winter Storm Watch?

GFS and NAM are likely overdoing totals. I think the accumulations put out by the NWS are a good range. Maybe a slight adjustment upward, but those goofy totals put out by those two models aren’t likely to verify. 12-18, maybe 2 feet in Eastern sections with some jackpots

sorry why are we using the GFS 18 hours before a storm? I dont remember us doing that before.

Probably time to start concentrating on the mesos. The globals aren't going to add much at this point.

And we still may not know until tomorrow morning

How long did it take ya to get freed, if someone was hypothetically considering it

My snow map, went to low in the mountains but i like the general idea of it, tell me what yall thinl

Philly probably won’t get 20, just 16 or so lol. Psu could definitely get 3 as a floor, but i like 6 there.

the nina is throwing us a farewell party

I'm guessing Outkast? But could be wrong

@AlexD1990 I want to see some videos. Boardwalk and beach, and Rehoboth Ave. I have some epic photos/vids from my 2 chases down there.

It’s very hard to forecast banding but there should be multiple bands that pivot in. Just look at this beautiful mid level lift.

Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts.

No, this isn’t what would cause that here…

That's exactly what's going to happen. I thought we were clear from the beginning.

Given the positive adjustments of Ukie and GGEM I’d say 12-18 for NYC likely. GFS/NAM likely too extreme but Euro is not the model it once was where I think it beats out everything.

Some of those January 2005 AFDs by Walt Drag are on this page of the 2005 reminiscing thread:

Impressive little cold tuck offsetting late Feb insolation. BOS has dropped a few degrees down to 28F. Same temp here with some weenie flakes falling.

Hold me and squeeze me

Classic. Shadow and energy transfer issues.

Is that a song? Honest question I’ve never heard of it.

Although its clear its going to be a beast, the big item too iron out is the diff. Between the US models which have the low further north than the rest of the field. The RAP/NAM/GFS/HRRR are north and 20 plus potential The remaining are a bit further south and 12 plus.