All Activity

Taste it

For what feels like the 300th time since Christmas we had a non-diurnal temp event here overnight. Temp was 33.0 at 10 pm, then slowly climbed to the current 36.4/25.8 at 7 am. In and out of clouds overnight, windy/gusty SW winds after midnight (28 mph gust).

Should be a fun one tonight especially North of I-40. Models show a more real shot for Saturday into Sunday. Might be our best shot this season but I don't want to jinx it. Seems like every time I make a post about a storm in here it disappears lol. Looking at the 6z GFS and a phase 6 hours before would give a big time snowstorm to us on Saturday and into Sunday. Euro is also showing it. We just need that trough to steepen up just a bit and the moisture will flow into WNC. Anyways, stoked to see how some of you folks do tonight, hoping for a dusting -1" at my house while 2 miles away Craggy gets 4"-6".

I would say the atmospheric coupling with the La Nina event has been uneven. The AAM has averaged near neutral since Nov, with a notable spike from late Nov to the first few days of Dec. I agree with your last three sentences about La Nina's continued influence in the next month or two. Also, in my experience, the CFS is known to be highly +AAM biased.

The eps ensembles took a severe snow map Hit last night

Improvement with the sharpness and orientation of the UL energy and surface low development location over the last few runs on the GFS. EURO trending the same way but surface low development is a bit further offshore

Go find other things to do for christ sakes.

Hang in there....I don't think it will stay boring. Sunday night will probably be mainly east of you, admittedly, but it's going to get active.

I have never seen this degree of uncertainty with the models. Big changes can happen, even within 72 hours. No way to know what late January will be like at this point.

I just hate when there’s nothing to track or get me weather excited and look forward to

After reviewing the overnight models, there is still a lot of uncertainty for the period from late tonight through Monday am. There are a few northern stream systems dropping down into our region, but impacts appear to just be minor to possibly nothing at this time. We will need to keep tracking to see if any of these minor systems over the next few days can get their act together to produce a widespread light snow event. If not, the period from later next week & beyond looks more active with Winter storm chances through the end of January.

We know you do........

Extended looks good to me. To varying degrees, op runs have shown an overrunning type set up somewhere in the region. Obviously the biblical 18z GFS isn't happening, but the EPS and GEFS have been flagging that period (around Jan 23-?) for something to move through. One piece, two pieces...who knows at this point. I mean its our best shot at something other than northern stream dusters. First shot all winter really. And it certainly looks cold in the medium/extended range as well. Seems like it may be a bookend winter. Fast start, then zzzzz, and top it off with a good finish.

6z GEFS and EPS look very similar

Absolutely not . That will be very wrong front comes thru early/ mid morning

Nope. You’ll be 45-50 through noon.

55 in reach today.

Tomorrow ? It drops all day with snow showers . Your area front drags

Tomorrow is mild until mid aftn

50 for high

I hate the cold without snow, but I do long for one of those days when I was kid...temp would be dropping through the single digits during the afternoon and be zero by nightfall. We used to get those more in the 80s...

Sorry if that was a lot, but what I was trying to say was that there is a very outside chance of an extra wave on Sunday. Also, to John's point about : If I saw this satellite without any other context, I would think someone in TN of the MA was about to get a decent snow: The dry slot from central MS and AL to the Cumberland Plateau is a little concerning, but still those are some colder cloud tops in the baroclinic leaf.

Bet the streak till it’s over. .

Tomorrow drops into the 20’s

Euro with another coastal hit. NW trend apparent, though. Energy continues to back more SW. If this turns into a rain event, ugh.