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Moon dimly visible?

@WesternFringe & @ravensrule, I'm watching you boys and those weenie reactions on my last post. Let's watch and see how this one evolves before we start calling anyone a weenie. Ravens has 3" geared up for us all.

Yeah we gotta toss the GFS solution out...I mean aside from the fact the model has been absolutely terrible...it doesn't have a ton of support on modeling nor with how things have gone with this kind of a wave this month.

I mean we all knew that lol. It happened like 3 days ago. Same story? Same result. I sincerely mean this, we can’t get to spring fast enough. I’m tired of this

Yes! Fixed

I think some sort of compromise is in store.

Can include here.

GFS is on crack. Back to your regularly scheduled winter cancel.

I discovered them in college, my first show was in the old stadium in Foxboro in the late 80s, saw them play a couple dozen times more over then next several years, and would go to any show that was driveable, saw a couple of shows in Washington DC during one of those summers, friends and shows I will never forget. first Phish show was 92 in Amherst, they played a set during one of the spring UMass pond concerts, have seen them many many times since. Some truly amazing shows I will never forget.

Someone fire up a pond ice thread.

Wasn't drunk part of it too?

GSP just issued a WWA up here and almost doubled their forecast totals for tonight. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1253 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 NCZ048>050-150600- /O.EXA.KGSP.WW.Y.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1700Z/ Madison-Yancey-Mitchell- Including the cities of Faust 1253 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations mainly of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated ridges seeing up to 6 inches. Winds gusting 50 to 55 mph with higher gusts possible on the highest peaks. * WHERE...High elevations of Madison, Mitchell, and Yancey Counties, above 3500 feet. * WHEN...Until noon EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will create snow covered roads and produce scattered power outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and power lines. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

I dont generally post about LR windows often. Was never a huge fan of the 24th/25th. As I noted to Cape, the pattern at that time points to the boundary to our North. The wave that slides east at that time helps drag the boundary back south of us in addition to better ridging up top pressing the pv south. The best chance that I have circled on the calendar, and that ensembles are starting to warm up to, is Jan 27-29. Too far out to get into specifics but the bigger worry with this window would be too much pressing S of the PV, too cold, and congrats Southern zones. Plenty of minor chances ahead, but I do like what we are seeing wrt pattern progression around Jan 27-29.

Guess we need to see what happens later on today and tonight. Nothing seems to be consistent lately

so NAM should be in range in the next run, we'll look for that wave to be west hopefully it trends west from here on out so we can get that actual coastal, nobody wants a dusting! we want KU !

A lot of flying energy until we get some established blocking. Model chaos will continue

12z GFS AIFS and GFS ensembles for the 19th storm... Interesting to say the least

At least we can track the diamond dust at 30,000ft.

I think so, When that one has been further west, The 19th has been as well

W

I think at this point we would need to see some sizable adjustments from the Euro (which I don't see happening) with the 0z run tonight if we want to talk about potential for widespread warning criteria. I guess we wait on the EPS now

A couple of weeks of deep winter in the heart of winter would be awesome.

Baby steps in the right direction calls for patience grasshoppers. Here’s another friendly reminder to practice your breathing skills, take your meds, drink plenty of water and sleep well when you can

Step backwards from 6z on euro, no sugar coating it. Quite a bit more positive tilt and weaker. Given the base state towards positive tilt/dry systems it’s certainly a concern.

Why didn’t we start a thread to track Saturday’s interior coating? Kevin is all about it.