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Will be the new replacement for Nam and hrrr. Sometime in 2026 but it still needs work.

I never really saw the appeal...I kept looking for something to write about, but never found anything.

Taking over for the nam when they shut it down.

lol some things never change around here

WTF is the RRFS?

The RRFS has the snow line just N and W of BOS for what it’s worth. Still shows a latitude issue in CT.

Saturday looking like crap now

Loving the end of the EPS run. You can see the ridging in the eastern PAC moving east towards the west coast.

Someone named snowcrazed disagrees with me. Lol. The Nam is not in its range and is way to zonked with QPF. Gfs is still warm aloft. Better for Kevin but not great S and W. CT is a big state. I don’t even know where you are. I said Kevin’s area is still the highest area of uncertainty and so did Will.

With ratios looking to be up to 20:1, my call is 4.5" here.

I will be there...Funky Murphy's @ 3pm Saturday.

Cold ENSO Winter: PNA Dec to Jan -1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97 -1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63 -1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63 -1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16 -2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61 -2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29 -2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55 -2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97 -2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28 -2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01 -2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22 -So, ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans -Moreover, the 3 strongest -PNA Decs were followed by the 3 strongest +PNA Jans: Dec 2021: -2.56; Jan 2022: +1.01 Dec 2010: -1.78; Jan 2011: +1.29 Dec 1984: -1.60; Jan 1985: +1.63 Euro Weeklies and ext-GEFS PNA forecast are both going for a solid -PNA in Dec: Based on the likelihood of a -PNA this month, January per the pattern of the last 40 years is likely to have a +PNA.

Kidding aside…consensus would’ve worked well when you start blending in the extremes like the euro/nam. It was just really stubborn until the end.

Completely agree. I posted earlier this has a similar track as December 5/6 2009 with rain and white rain on the coast and snow inland. Unfortunately I had to witness this over and over again growing up in the 80s and 90s lol. Warm wet/cold dry. Good setup for the Middle Atlantic and great lakes though!

Ping ping ping...

Rule #3 You guys are dumb

Top ten candidate for post of the year!!!!

Euro is prob gonna win the compromise on the track closer to the BM…we’ll see. But it def was decently too cold in thermal profiles. But it’s had that issue for a few seasons now.

...and the surprise is????

I get that other guidance has got better, But you use to be able to lock the Euro inside 84hrs, Those days are gone.

Ride it

I would just stress in the headline the model guidance is not reliable especially past a certain number of hours - if that is the case - so folks won't get false hope - some storms there is no doubt we will end up with snowstorm region wide but these borderline situations have high bust potential regarding precip type especially- I still think there will be busts in the forecast for tomorrow one way or the other in certain areas yet to be determined. AI overview Meteorology is called an "inexact science" because the Earth's atmosphere is a massive, complex system that is impossible to measure with complete accuracy, and is governed by principles of chaos theory, making long-term, precise prediction impossible. While the underlying physics and math are precise, the application to predicting weather is limited by factors like incomplete initial data, the sheer scale of the atmosphere, and the amplification of tiny errors over time, a concept known as the "Butterfly Effect".

Is there one model that has done a good job so far with this event. I would say definitely not. The GFS had most of the snow way north of Southern New England ( well it did have it into into western Mass ). Now that's shifted down quite a bit south and has it down into Connecticut. So you could say they're all a shell of themselves. The new Norm?

The EPS has been handling this pattern pretty well over the last week or so. It has been fairly steady with the MJO 6 500 mb pattern dominating. Longer duration MJO 6 patterns tend to show a poleward shift with more ridging returning to Plains and East after the first 10 days. This matches the moderation the EPS has been showing in the pattern for mid month. So the first 10 days or so will probably be the coldest part of December relative to the means.

I think that not only is there more data, but other guidance has closed the gap....so like I said, I don't think the EURO has gotten worse... but it runs more often and other guidance is better. JMO....I don't want to incur the wrath of Wolfie.