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I would think it would be tough to get too many major lows plowing through the lakes with a vortex INVO of Hudson's Bay....these charts scream SWFE/Miller B to me. Also trying to think of what would bias the models towards higher heights over AK in a cool ENSO. They would have to be underestimating La Nina and/or developing it too far east. I am confident this isn't going to be a robust Nina, so I buy the -EPO, which aligns with all of my early seasonal work. Now, maybe they are underdoing CC and it will be generally somewhat warmer...okay. Maybe they are also underplaying the +WPO influence given how stout that West warm pool is, but it may be tough to get the +WPO to exotic levels with stout EPO blocking. Interesting-

were you able to see any sunspots? zero sun here today

1999: Governors of four Mid-Atlantic States imposed mandatory water restrictions as the worst drought in the history of the region continued. The period April through July ranked as the second driest ever for the Northeast, second only to 1965. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) One of my favorite summers of all time !!! Highs: EWR: 102 (1944) NYC: 101 (1944) LGA: 100 (1955) JFK: 96 (2010) a list of record highs from some of our BEST summers!!!

We won't have a full day of sunshine again until Friday. When I saw the forecasts on Sunday I knew that Monday would be our last good day until Friday. I also knew that Monday would be our warmest day and Tuesday would be nowhere close to that. Fortunately, the sunny weather is timed well for the weekend. Forget about the clouds, the smoke is MUCH worse. I had some breathing issues this morning and a headache when I woke up and I knew exactly where it came from-- the smoke causing the air pollution.

The White Mountains area really isn’t all that far away. Head up towards Fryeburg then west from there to Conway. At that point you are fairly close to the Kanc, which has some great swimming spots along side it.

Models love spitting out stuff that happens once every 500 years. They do it all winter, but we're use to that lol

1.13" here since Sunday (.25" so far today).

Just in - he's concerned about mixing issues southeast of interstate 81 that might hold down accumulations.

Our annual up the bay run!

I’d rather see that on guidance ten days out or whatever than some big trough signal over my head—that all of the guidance tries to pull something into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic is really all I need to see at this stage. Though it’s obviously clown range early. You’re absolutely right. That ended up becoming a named storm eventually but that easily did hurricane damage.

Yup. I will say that the bias is often towards stock ENSO, which was true last season.

Just wondering were the seasonal model error will actually be during the winter since we seldom see perfect forecasts from any of the models from this range.

Absolutely agree with this, but I would take the under on the degree of latitude and elevation needed relative to recent seasons. Like I said, you aren't getting all of that energy to consolidate as far west without a trough to Baja.

GFS fell off a cliff after DOGE

Realistically, when there’s been as much haze as the past two days, how much does that affect the high temperatures? 2-3 degrees?

I like Lobstermans Wharf on East Boothbay. Nice boat ride and good lobster feast.

If something resembling that pattern verifies, then elevation and higher latitude will be your friend in the Northeast like we have seen during recent seasons.

Bingo- Not everything needs to have a KU chapter dedicated to it to produce appreciable snowfall in the NE.

Nice map.

No one mentioned how the GFS drives a major cane right up through the region next week?

We're staying at a house on Sebago Lake from 8/9 to 8/14. Almost 50 y/o parents, 20 and 18 y/o kids. We'll do the usual Portland trip for lobstah one day, lean toward nature stuff the other days. Any must see or must do's in the area? Don't mind driving a bit.

Nina-ish precip pattern, but the longwave pattern is workable for some cold air availability. Could be much worse.

Agreed...not a KU pattern, however, with ample cold in SE Canada, that is conducive to SWFE and Miller B redevemopment depending on how much and how quickly energy consolidates west-which may not be much given a more neutral PNA. This is why I have been saying give me 2022-2023 with a bit less of a neg PNA, which was into the Baja that year. There is more than one way to skin a weenie-

The axis of heaviest rainfall continues to be to the south and east of Hickory, essentially along I-85, this morning. The axis may be drifting ever so slightly north and west, but the point-and-click forecasts seem to be misplaced based on the observed conditions.

Today is the last day that the normal high at PIT is at its maximum of 83. Tomorrow it drops to 82. Of course, we’ll be well above that for much of the next week or two.