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I have seen him do that, but I think he is guilty to what a lot of us are...when a situation sucks, or goes to shit...we tend to disappear like that Homer Simpson GIF into the bushes lol We have all done it.

Short Pump bullseye...

Looking ahead through end of Jan, all ensembles bring a southern/SE ridge after jan 22… but gefs/geps retrogrades the ridge west toward the end of their runs. If they’re correct, that thaw will only last a few days before it gets colder again. Euro wants to keep the SE ridge all the way through, but with mjo going into 7 I think its wrong and will catch up to gefs/geps.

Then its not a miller b. Its a whiff. Miller bs are more reliable IMO - but they can whiff kicker and miss of course

Much better

2 runs in a row of 4"+ snowfall on any model this year has been hard to come by. I'll call this a victory and hope it's a sign of better things to come.

Low end warning event on a weekend. Where do I sign?

Yea, I believe him....like I said, I didn't see it.

I am responding to your post because I respect you as a poster. I want to limit commentary of a personal nature. I was very clear what I was critiquing with Brooklyn. It only gets murky when multiple people pile on with comments on other comments, and the original context gets lost. Brooklyn made a sarcastic response to someone else's post asking rhetorically if he should "not analyze models." I responded based on his well known propensity to post positive-trend animations that it would be helpful if his "analysis" included both positive and negative trends for a "more balanced" assessment. His response was again sarcastic and insulting. My critique of Brooklyn's style is that his always positive "analysis" regarding long-range charts is not well correlated to sensible weather outcomes. It is not difficult to recognize a favorable "look" on an long-range ensemble chart. ChatGPT does that quite well. There is little value in pointing out these features on 240hr charts. I think he should still be in LEARNING mode more than TEACHING mode. And eventually I think he could offer a lot more than one-sided cheerleading. I am entitled to this opinion, and people can agree or disagree with me if they like. Considering the prolific nature of his posts, Brooklyn should be able to handle legitimate critique. Maybe I'm misjudging him. If he proves me wrong and demonstrates a deeper repertoire, I will happily acknowledge it.

@brooklynwx99 I have all the respect in the world for you guys that are bright enough to earn that degree because I am not. I could not ever do it. I am truly obsessed with certain aspects of meteorology and I have good writing skills, that's it.

As I suspected 3 hours ago!

i simply would not want to live in such a place. there's such a thing as too much of a good thing. 4-8 is about right.

Because I think he got defensive, and it really was all uncalled for. I can understand being really hurt and pissed off and him just trying to defend himself. That’s why I said don’t engage. That must be the parent in me when my 8 1/2 year-old diva daughter tries to piss me off lol. Sometimes you’re better off not engaging and let them look like fools.

MJO is interesting again after being inactive for a while. It's firing off starting in the west pacific and might make another attempt at a phase 8 run. If it lines up with these arrows, you are there. Especially if you can push that suppressed phase fully onto 120E. That did not happen last time. It attenuated and fell short. Therefore I do not believe we ever truly achieved phase 8 the first time. It'll be interesting to see what happens now, with the warm pool leaning slightly east. Thinking maybe we can get a better attempt this time but we'll see.

but so are miller b's....we can miss the phase....right?

Yea it is 8 days to 12 days out on the 18z GFS guarantee it will be a different solution ride at 0z.

You're definite seeing a pattern change since we've seen this since fall in the upcoming days

I didn't see the interaction....I'm just using your comment as a launching pad to make that comment. Nothing personal at all.

went fishing there a couple times back in 90 and 91. i've heard the epic man made salmon runs are largely a thing of the past in most of the lakes, as the invasive alewives themselves could not survive the lakes. efforts are underway to restore natural fisheries, though iirc ontario did have salmon at one time, unlike the other lakes. the fishing i saw there did not make me want to go back, i'll say that. but i was fishing with a bunch of amateurs.....i had read a recent book on the lakes and there is a documentary out there i saw, i've always been fascinated by these huge freshwater seas.....even this photo does not impart the sheer vastness of the lake....

it was mentioned because my qualifications were questioned, as if the degree or title I earned was not deserved. it absolutely was

18z GFS is a long duration Warning level event this run for next Sunday into Monday.

He likes to point out the avenues to a successful solution...it's not wrong, per se...it's easy for people to project frustration onto that type of poster after 8 consecutive dud seasons. I think he knows his stuff....but I did roll my eyes when he mentioned his college accolades....no one cares about your GPA in any field...it's all about how practically skilled you are, and can other human begins stand you. There are plenty of degreed mets that I would forecast the pants off of with respect to winter weather in this region....synoptically, or seasonally. At the end of the day, how passionate are you and how obsessively do you seek to hone your craft. Those are the two most important boxes to check emphatically. This can't just be a job or hobby....weather needs to be a clinical affliction to excel.

Absolutely, 18z GFS is a long duration Warning level event this run.

Agree, best look in weeks... Lots of chefs in kitchen in a more favorable longwave pattern = potential, even if there is interference. At moment (and will obviously evolve this far out), EPS and EPS-AI hinting at a SNE grazer 16th followed by at least CNE/NNE hit 18th, but tons of scatter around those focal points with huge range in ceiling as we're seeing seeing on OP runs. I too am hoping to at least get the 6" monkey off our back, nearing 4 years now... and in the shorter term, let's get <32F by kickoff Sunday.