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That tpv in Quebec needs to lift out if it has any chance, and that's assuming our slp wouldn't just slide out to sea.

Exactly! Lol

Temperatures are better.... if precip gets up here then it'll be snow.

same - DCA hit 63

Icon? Looks it would be suppressed, but idk.

Winter is two weeks old Ken..no matter how you slice it. The season doesn’t care about MET winter.

100%. The longterm average snowfall is around 42" (the current averages are a few inches higher due to the snowy 2000s-10s). Using official Detroit data for the 42 winters since I was born, the least snowy was 23.4" (1997-98) and the snowiest 94.9" (2013-14). The largest snowstorm 16.7" (Feb 1-2, 2015). A huge majority of winters will fall in the 30-60" range. Not in my lifetime has there been a winter with snowfall worse than 50% of average. You can always count on snow. You'll also see tons of days of "mood flakes" that dont add to the total (lakes influence). Its just wild from my perspective to see areas of the Mid-Atlantic have had snowstorms that dropped FEET of snow and entire winters where the ground was never covered once.

Only when they show me what I want to see!

Heavier rates dragging cold air from aloft do temps are marginal in those cases but most likely a product of the model not seeing dynamics or smoothing things out.

Obviously none of us put a lot of stock in the individual ensemble snow panels.....but they sure are fun to look at when they start lighting up. P17 gives me the same 9.3" as p28 but in three separate events. Think that answers the above question for me. I'll take multiple events.

Classic holding energy back out west. As we know models are horrible at getting these right. Is it pieces coming east or the whole bundle of energy the effects here are quite different.

0z HRRR has basically nothing falling in the watch area. 0Z NAM lost a lot of moisture, too.

kinda not sure about this tbh. Another dad at school wasn't a fan.

Early winter? Divide 38 by 90 and multiply by 100.

More wind Sunday. Advisories probably I’d think.

We should have a thread either way given the importance of the day lol

some consistent winning would probably help some. Guess we'll see since they let DQ clean house a bit (we'll see if he's actually the issue lol).

one of the final "fuck you"s from Snyder

Hopefully what is being shown is going to have staying power. This warmup is well needed if the models are right on the pattern that is now underway. I say bring it….winter!!

Interesting changes and this 0ZNAM Unfortunately, it’s in that 72+ hour range …NAM is not very good but it’s definitely a colder solution

Holy crap!!! Damn .. don't get any more direct than that!!

You seem to have a lower ceiling by higher floor than I do...my seasons are more variable.

The answer to that would be a resounding …NO.

Trae young to Wizards

Weeks of literally nothing