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You have obviously been going to the wrong clubs.

Congrats terpeast. My daughters were born on 12/7 and 12/8 lol

What? Zwyts got banned? He is a legend. Bring him back

Congrats! The stoke is high over the arrival of our latest snow weenie!

I added to that... some for amusement some of thoughts

Nickle and dimes are fine if we keep pumping them in, and manage a few decent size events as in 1995-'96. Is that too much to ask for...

If anyone want to join the discord https://discord.gg/wZRHd8rTwN

Yeah I agree the early part of this winter likely won't be representative of the trends documented.

You had me at frontogenesis. We don’t get enough of it around here. Also hot and heavy has been a rare sight over the last decade.

Good luck tomorrow, everyone.

This is all likely true in this paper ... but it certainly isn't true this year - for now.. I mean, a persistent snow pack, squalls in the air ... and possible refit event 108 or so hours out in models that have others through the 20th ... to mention, a -20 something anomaly plume here on the doorstep, these are all hallmarks of an above normal winter expression. As an aside, I'm reminded ... I thought back in early September this has a shot at a front loaded winter. Not sure this quite yet qualifies... but at the time I said either that, or a quasi one anyway. I just get the feel that it's done in January this year, though. Flower February? I'm sure I just triggered a salvo of responses, either why that's not true posts, are a bunch of truly intellectually inspiring shit emojis ... but we'll let all that and see what happens in due time.

So ready for our first Accumulating Snow of the season in the morning!

Updated: 0 to 2" seems reasonable.

Lol…don’t tell that to the snow stake at Mansfield this year.

If it really maxes out then could he be named Fifth or Finch?

shield your eyes, it's hideous https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/13/12/246

Congratulations!! The birth of a future weather weenie

interesting. the 12z EPS has as far as I can tell, completely evacuated the mid month Rosby rollout/warm up. This mean centered on the 17th ( for ex) bears no signature of that any longer

Yes it's 50 now Iol

Dewpoints actual vs HRRR at 3 pm: GSO -10 CLT -1 RAH -9 ROA -0 This tells me the warm front to the south has not advanced as far north as modeled. If this continues I would expect the rain/snow line as well as the heavier rates to shift south, although too early too have any confidence in this scenario based on OBS

I was about to say...this looks like cold and dry to me since it may be harder for anything to amplify and ya get more interference.

Had a brief dusting with the first round of snow showers about 45 minutes ago. Enough to log a "trace" for the day but not measurable. But it did lower the temp from 40F to 31F very quickly. Sun is back out now but perhaps a more legitimate squall appears to be approaching from the west.

For posterity heres all of that condensed into a snowfall map for my friends (sorry MD crew).

You're in a good spot - I seriously hope you overperform. My Dad (Midlothian outside of Richmond) is too. I doubt I'll see much more than conversation flakes, but boy it's been cold here. Parts of Broadford Lake (poor man's Deep Creek near my house) are starting to ice over even. Hi of 26 yesterday and currently sitting at 23 with a thick overcast.

I myself would be happy to see my children go berserk over snow TV this early in the season. Win/Win. I just hope it doesn't end until evening.