All Activity

Some further commentary in the wake of the ECMWF-AIFS now consistently outperforming the ECMWF and Google DeepMind's rapid improvement in hurricane track forecasting on how I expect AI to transform the meteorological space over the next decade or two. Prompt libraries executed by agentic AI would interpret/translate modeled outcomes at a local and even hyper-local street-by-street level, generate maps/visualizations by tapping into Python and other programming libraries, disseminate a wide range of personalized information through Apps, etc. This will radically change existing value propositions. It would shift substantial value to the public and consumers/users of weather information. It would also upend business models based on charging for maps and graphics that are often based on freely available raw data simply due to the public's lack of access to the ability to generate such graphics on their own (programming knowledge to software). The evolution of AI would also dramatically change the nature of the meteorology profession from routine forecasting to communication of risk/uncertainty, mesoscale/microscale specialist, emergency response consulting, etc. , I suspect that fairly routine things like 7-day forecasts, marine forecasts, hourly forecasts will be largely automated in a decade or two. Humans will focus more on communicating risk, identifying rare outcomes that could lie outside the AIs' training, advising proactive responses (evacuations, school closures/delays, etc.), and providing judgment in complex situations. AI would largely devalue the hype-based business models that have proliferated on social media to the detriment of professional credibility and public well-being, as the AI-driven outcomes available at little or no cost would be vastly superior to the hypecasters' products, services, and click-bait. Moreover, the AIs will allow users to verify the accuracy of the AI-driven forecasts enhancing credibility for the AI products/services. AI will also integrate large amounts of additional information to provide impacts assessments. AI will translate weather data into supply chain disruptions, energy demand, insurance exposure, traffic patterns, effects on crops, etc. These AI-driven impact models will likely be offered by major AI companies (Google, etc.) at much lower cost than under today's business models. That will also shift value to the AI companies who will be providing the service and the users of such information who will benefit from discounted pricing. Second order effects could also be unlocked for consumers of products/services (grocery prices, energy prices, etc.). In the end, this won't be the first time that technological change led to broad transformation. Almost certainly, it won't be the last time, either.

Kevin is right...there could be some snow showers (even some squalls tomorrow night) but a dry boundary layer might be an issue. That's a pretty potent shortwave diving southeast with very steep mid-level lapse rates

I think through the third week of March would work for me, but once we hit the last week of March climo nosedives and 95% of threats are elevation dependent.

Do you two need a cig?

I couldn’t agree More. And let’s throw all our chips on the table and gamble with riding the line. If it fails…so be it, and let’s get spring in here by late March(although that’s probably a pipe dream lol). But you know what I mean.

I'm not a pro, but thanks. I can hold my own, but there are certain aspects where Will and Scoot really distinguish themselves in terms of avenues to success with respect to phasing potential and overall pattern progression. Sounding interpretation is one area that I am really deficient relative to them.

From what I heard, a shift towards colder weather in March I guess mid March is the target… It’s gonna be more MJO driven. So we’ll see how that goes. Maybe in the meantime, we can ride the lightning until then. Personally I hope it’s earlier.

I think we're gonna see some more teases before it's eventually over. It just won't die completely on ensembles. Even the 6Z GEFS has a couple big hits on it when 00Z had zero. EPS and AIEPS have several. I'd give it a <10% chance but it's worth keeping one eye half opened. lmao, i saw that, MJOs favorite model now that the NAVGEM is gone

Will ORD get above 0.9” this month? .

It’s all good. Just remember too, that most of us are hobbyists, and are not pros. We do things that are gonna probably annoy folks like you and Will at times…I think we all get that. And I think I speak for a lot of guys in here(along with myself), when I say that we’ve learned a ton from professionals such as yourself, Will, FXWX, and Ray, and Steve too, that we can’t put a price on. Sometimes we get excited, and may post or say things that may be laughable…but it’s mostly only because of enthusiasm. Anyway, I agree with what you laid out a few posts back about the long wave pattern that may be coming later in the month, and early March. Thanks for the explanation and insight too.

To be fair, looping precip like that really doesn’t give you a feel for the pattern. I know what you’re trying to do and I’ve looked at that too, but it doesn’t really tell a story.

I love Snow more than anyone, but one of the worst things you can do is try to pull for it, even in the face of uncertainty. I just try to give my insight and try not to be biased.

Months of work to get a normal to below normal winter and we're could lose it in the last two weeks of winter.

Icon EPS!

If we're talking geo-engineering for more snow then I think we should mandate people replacing furnaces with heat-pumps. Make it hot inside by extracting outdoor heat. Imagine every house in DC and Baltimore running one of those in winter. Big office buildings too. We'd get an urban cool island, it'd be snowing in downtown Baltimore rain in Towson

Even with the big warm up across North America the next few weeks, the Northeast is still only getting back closer to average.

Now we’re getting big picturesque dendrites. Fantastic

Current 25-year average for March is currently 5.9":

Those are exactly my thoughts for the rest of the month, though I'm not sure if it rains 2/19-20. It does turn warm to begin March (with us entering MJO Phase 6), and we should get our first 60+ during the first week of March.

Yes I never look at 5H just a kid weenie.

With colder than normal Atlantic waters it could be especially bad this year...pray for a west wind.

Dep through the 11th EWR: -9.2 (0.02) NYC: -10 (0.08) LGA: -9.8 (0.03) JFK: -9.8 (0.01)

Fair enough. Thanks for the insight. I m sure we play with fire, but it’s worth it now as we head towards the last quarter of the season.

Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1999) NYC: 62 (2018) LGA: 63 (2018) JFK: 61 (2022) Lows: EWR: -1 (1979) NYC: -2 (1914) LGA: 4 (1979) JFK: 4 (1979) Historical: 1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784. 1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. 1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel) 1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across Alaska. Morning lows of 29 degrees at Anchorage and 31 degrees at Fairbanks were actually warmer than those in northern Florida. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of an arctic cold front pushed temperatures into the 70s as far north as Iowa and Nebraska. Twenty-one cities in the central U.S., seven in Iowa, reported record high temperatures for the date. Lincoln NE reported a record high of 73 degrees, and the afternoon high of 59 degrees at Minneapolis MN smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Springfield IL reported a record forty-eight consecutive days with above normal temperatures. (The National Weather Summary) 2006 - An intense snow squall off of Lake Michigan cuts visibility to zero along a section of US 31. The resulting whiteout causes 96 cars to pile up. 25 were injured. 2017: There was an imminent failure of the auxiliary spillway on the Oroville Dam in California.

I think so!!