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I probably rushed the PV recovery, which I can live with...the bigger deal is getting the Pacific trough transition correct.

Around the 5th is the next opportunity.

Euro is keeping that southern vort independent of the northern stream for quite a bit longer. These more amped models are trying to phase earlier so you get a big WAA surge out ahead of it.

No mention in the AFD’s from either in regards to the shortwave.

Yes indeed! This would make most of us get off to a great start to Winter if it comes close to verifying. I like the timing as well with the onset & thump in the early am.

Tech Attachment from 1989 attached> references an older set of models but the pattern still applies. See the checklist. https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta88-17b.pdf

10.8 this morning. Coldest so far this year by 6 degrees.

GGEM was even slower than the GFS to turn the low and midlevels out of the east. And it’s because of how it handles the vort. It keeps a strong vort tracking through western NY. You aren’t getting big snowstorms for a good chunk of New England like that.

Just based it off of the track, I don't generally dive very deep into the GGEM.

Unless I missed something, only VT has has a warning this month. Unless GYX/BOX hoists anything tomorrow, we'll have question 1 resolved.

Similar but def warmer.

Of course I change jobs and the snow possibilities plummet for my new work location vs old

In it right now. Its the real deal! Looks like a snow globe out here!

It was similar to the 12z GFS.

It’s really warm. Good snow confined to NW of Worcester to SNH

Last hour received 0.4” at ORD, with heavier returns moving in now & vis down to 1/2SM, should be north of 0.5/hr rate going forward for awhile.

If he cant get snow, nobody can Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

The temperature dropped to 16.7° in my backyard just west of Eden. The coldest temperature I could find in Rockingham County was near Madison where a station recorded a low of 15.8°. KSIF dropped to 17.6°.

12Z GFS colder on the front end and overall better for us southerners. True central smoked. Noticeable move to the Euro.

For what this is worth... has anyone checked BOX, OKX and discussions... I dont quite have time... but I'm thinking this rapid transition of an end moving- strengthening shortwave across our area with strong LFQ and even stronger RRQ of 250-300MB jets may fit the bombogenesis profile. Let us know if anyone has mentioned this? PPP drops at least 24 MB in 24 hrs 12z Tue-12zWED. I'm believing rapid intensification and now it's a matter of thermal profiles. Going to be an interesting day in these parts with R+ LI and a "period "of S+ wet snow inland. mPing of value Tuesday including the possibility of a northernly jet 40kt plus on the backside over LI as the storm rushes east northeast.

24 for a low watching when the cloud cover comes in and the dews. If we can drop back to about 32 when cloud cover takes over the dews should be about 22 and that would make an interesting precip onset later on

Things are on track here. It’s been snowing for a couple of hours and we have about a half inch so far. Consistently snowing with flake size and rate gradually improving. The radar looks great.

I agree, I think that's where we'll end up, enough to whiten the ground with a few inche, hopefully not enough to insulate it though. Think I'll sneak maybe an inch or two Sunday night and then it'll wash away.

This looks like 1-2” max but should be a nice refresher and a very rare snow on snow for early December

12z GGEM goes over SE MA/Cape