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@ORH_wxman @CoastalWx Any thoughts on this one? Brockton, MA snow total from 4/1/97?

VDDay coming up..no better time to fully exorcise those Kristine demons.

The rising NAO has some modest positive correlation to enhancing precip over the eastern mid latitude continent... but the falling PNA, not so much. The combination of that might be better, because you have cold in place... With that falling PNA that implies rising heights into/over an initially cold lower troposphere. It's an overrunning signal ( just wrote about this above...). Which, we don't really see that right now in the guidance that show anything at all; they are indicating coastal stuff. It's all sketchy to me at best.

We crushed our prior record.

To be clear, I wasn't doubting you. I was surprised by the amount of difference in temp though. And I'm even more surprised by the discrepancy in your forecast high for today compared to mine. 8 degrees is a lot.

Either way, this weekend is going to suck.

I was told there would be better winter weather opportunities ahead. Are we banking on an April surprise? .

6z GFS

The Costco mushroom yard lights look great in the snow!

The sun did some damage on my south-facing yard yesterday, especially at the bottom of the pack. Almost like it was melting "bottom-up".

when i left office yesterday at 330 my normal route back to Akron, saw 28 in etown and got to 30 in lititz and akron. just checked for verification for you data weenies. Heres Akrons numbers. Weather observations for the past three days for Lancaster, Lancaster Airport Imperial (Metric) Date Time (est) Wind (mph) Vis. (mi.) Weather Sky Cond. Temperature (ºF) Relative Humidity Wind Chill (°F) Heat Index (°F) Pressure Precipitation (in) Air Dwpt 6 hour altimeter (in) sea level (mb) 1 hr 3 hr 6 hr Max. Min. 03 07:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21.9 12 66% 30.18 1022.7 03 06:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC045 19 12 21 16 74% 30.17 1022.2 03 05:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast BKN050 OVC055 18 12 77% 30.16 1021.8 03 04:53 Calm 10.00 Overcast OVC050 18 10.9 74% 30.16 1021.7 03 03:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC050 21 10 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 02:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC055 19.9 9 62% 30.16 1021.8 03 01:53 W 3 10.00 Overcast OVC065 19.9 8.1 60% 30.16 1021.8 03 00:53 W 7 10.00 A Few Clouds FEW075 19 8.1 26.1 17.1 62% 11 30.15 1021.6 02 23:53 W 3 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT090 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 22:53 W 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN120 19 8.1 62% 30.15 1021.6 02 20:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 30.14 1021.2 02 19:53 Calm 10.00 Fair CLR 25 7 46% 30.13 1020.9 02 18:53 W 7 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 8.1 30 24.1 50% 17 30.13 1021.1 02 17:53 NW 6 10.00 Fair CLR 28 7 41% 22 30.12 1020.4 02 16:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.1 1019.8 02 15:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 8.1 41% 20 30.09 1019.5 02 14:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 28.9 9 43% 20 30.09 1019.4 02 13:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 28 10.9 49% 18 30.09 1019.7 02 12:53 NW 14 10.00 Fair CLR 26.1 10 26.1 12.9 51% 15 30.11 1020.3 02 11:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 25 9 50% 14 30.14 1021.3 02 10:53 NW 18 10.00 Fair CLR 21.9 8.1 55% 8 30.15 1021.5 02 09:53 W 17 10.00 Fair CLR 19 7 59% 5 30.15 1021.6 02 08:53 W 14 10.00 Fair CLR 16 5 62% 3 30.14 1021.1 02 07:53 NW 17 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 1.9 56% -0 30.13 1020.8 02 06:53 W 16 10.00 Fair CLR 14 -0 19 12.9 53% -1 30.11 1020.4 02 05:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0 51% 3 30.1 1019.9 02 04:53 W 12 10.00 Fair CLR 15.1 -0.9 49% 3 30.1 1019.8 02 03:53 NW 15 10.00 Fair CLR 17.1 -0.9 45% 3 30.08 1019.3 02 02:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 18 -0.9 43% 6 30.07 1018.7 02 01:53 NW 13 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 41% 7 30.05 1018.1 02 00:53 N 14 10.00 Fair CLR 19 -0.9 24.1 19 41% 6 30.03 1017.6 01 23:53 N 10 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -2.9 34% 11 30.01 1016.9 01 22:53 NW 9 10.00 Fair CLR 21 -0.9 38% 11 29.98 1016.0 01 21:53 NW 14 G 21 10.00 Fair CLR 23 -2 33% 11 29.96 1015.3 01 20:53 NW 10 10.00 Fair CLR 24.1 -2 32%

hmmm I thought opposite when looking at the teleconnections. Rise in the NAO with a declining PNA All of this during a period which looked to be active with shortwaves progressing within the flow across the country. I know the OP shows a storm but not necessarily basing my thoughts on the OP...but seeing the OP with a storm kind of backs up the potential?

I just recalled this.. the stricter interpretation of the H.A. thesis, which really applies everywhere in nature ... whenever going from one state of a system, to a new state, requires events. That really all that is. Anyway, the -NAO differentiating ( or rising) to a +NAO did have a minoring statistic correlation with precipitation over eastern N/A. So technicall ... that +d(NAO) out there ... it's a little bit of a stretch though, because that particular correlation is really more overrunning related, whereas the current signals by the Can ens appears to be a vague early detection of Miller B

Bus stop this morning it felt warmer than what the temp was and my AccuWeather confirmed it. Temp was 21° but real feel was 31°. It was cloudy as well. What's the reasoning for that? Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

9 & 6 this morning for my stations.

Few flurries!!!

I just getting a feel for them too, but overall I’ve been fairly impressed with them sniffing signals out, or like this recent Carolina snow event, selling stuff here.

Our best chance upcoming is going to be that mid February time frame. I don't have much confidence moving into the second half of the month...there's been increasing signals with a flip on the PAC side and introducing more trough amplification into the West and we know what that mans for us. A bit of vitality showing up with respect to pattern evolution second half of the month...that look makes me nervous because it could be signaling the hemisphere is making strides towards the seasonal transition. Not saying winter is over or snow threats are done because slight tweaks in the evolution opens a window. So for now I don't have much in the way of expectations and proceeding with lower confidence moving forward.

Some spots today have their first chance at seeing above freezing temperatures. If we fail to reach freezing today it will mark our 11th straight day. This would tie for the 5th longest sub-freezing streak in County history. If we do not top freezing today we have an increasing chance at setting an all-time county record. If we get through next Monday we would set just such a record at 17 days. There were a couple of flurries out there this morning, but we should see some sun this afternoon. Some additional flurries are possible tonight especially across southern areas. A little better shot at some light snow on Friday before yet another strong arctic front sends us back into the freezer for the weekend.

That follow up wave is trying. The 6z AI euro gets precip to almost ezf if looks like

Some spots today have their first chance at seeing above freezing temperatures. If we fail to reach freezing today it will mark our 11th straight day. This would tie for the 5th longest sub-freezing streak in County history. If we do not top freezing today we have an increasing chance at setting an all-time county record. If we get through next Monday we would set just such a record at 17 days. There were a couple of flurries out there this morning, but we should see some sun this afternoon. Some additional flurries are possible tonight especially across southern areas. A little better shot at some light snow on Friday before yet another strong arctic front sends us back into the freezer for the weekend.

Yes made it to 35.2 yesterday. Even though it got above freezing the amount of snow melting really occurred on roofs and elevated surfaces. With the ground that cold and frozen before this last snowfall, I guess it will take awhile to melt there.

southern tier has been close enough on many runs to keep some mood flakes in the offing tonight/tom morning. Friday clipper still seems to be holding some promise for a winter landscape refresher for much of the state. Still think SE of mtns mood flakes to a coating at best w/ typical clipper fashion favoring nother westers. and while the 7-10 look quiet outside of above mentioned chances, I'm not gonna waste a week of winter, searching for another week of winter. Gonna enjoy what we have and see how things look next week at this time. Ens guidance 2m's look warmish, but tellies beyond 2/15 seem to be zonal/neutral, and with expansive snow pack, It may mute warm signals back towards normal or slightly above. In peak climo, thats not horrible IMO. MJO is concerning, but lets see what it looks like a week from now. SSW event also happening, and downwelling and lag time of it, will likely have an affect on tellies as we look longer range.

Snowy and damaging CAA wind gusts. Check Bufkit

Opposite ... the teleconnectors are NOT showing a signal at this time. That's what I just covered. It's not blood in the cloth or anything and things can change... but right now, the only indicators on the side of Venereal Disease are the Can ens, one runs of the GFS operational, and the fact that if I ever get laid again it's going to have to be paid for... neither prospect is very thrilling to me at this time - but, in deference to hopes and dreams of being kissed by a sexy snow goddess at least you guys got the Can ens and one solitary run of the GFS (06z) leaving you messages on the date site. Otherwise, the current indices are not impressive for that period of time. -d(PNA)/+EPO/neutral NAO. wait there might be something else to NAO hmm