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Euro the last couple runs has been showing signs of the Subtropical ridge moving out west,maybe its seeing something the other models arent seeing right now,dunno.But right now it dont seem to have much if any support

Now model forecasting is not in this mechanical vein although models in general do not make predictions nor forecasts but rather examples. They “guide” us. Where they guide us to is unknown. Whether it’s mechanical or poor information distribution, all those paying for models should be up in arms and in stern contact with the providers

Sat snow seems more north on runs today but guessing that will shift south like today's clipper did

Ok you want someone to chime in so I will. First let me say, I believe our climate is becoming more mild. What you are claiming may become fact, I have no crystal ball to predict what will happen in the future. Maybe in 50 years we will have a climate like North Carolina, maybe not. If we do, out side this weather board, a lot of people will be happy about that. The thing that bothers me is sometimes people show stats that support their point but they may be misleading. I am not going to check all the cities you mention but I did check Syracuse NY. I was surprised you have your graph line starting at 150 inches because I don't think they ever averaged that high over an extended period. I did check what they averaged from 1951-2 thru 1981-2 seasons. For that 30 year period they averaged 109.6 inches of snow per year. Looking forward, they had a very snowy period from 2002-3 to 2010-11 seasons. Similar to us, the last 6 seasons have not been good at all by their standards. Last year they had 115 inches of snow which is their average since 1951.

No actually steady. Huge Marchs skew the data like the 40s in 1956 and 1993 but as a whole negligible

Not that I can recall.

Posted this discussion after the 12z runs in case anyone is interested. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ps6sgVtw0nA

Climate data on snowfall is absolutely horrible. The real reliable sites are COOPs like Jeff in Staffordville CT and Stacey in North Foster RI, also Revere Mass and Blue Hill

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down

Just a little south nudge needed for the Monmouth jackpot zone.

For this type of event 60 hours might as well be 300. We’re talking about nailing down a very localized meso band. That’s like expecting the morels to get a line of thunderstorms correct from 60 hours. Juts getting typical Nina chaotic northern stream waves right outside 48 hours is hard enough. This is almost impossible. This isn’t a split flow Nino pattern where nailing STJ systems at long leads is a legit thing. The best analog in anyone’s set was 2014 and remember in that season almost none of the snows were depicted well outside 48 hours. The times it looked like snow from day 5 typically busted and almost all the snows that winter looked ambiguous at best from 72 hours out and trended into something inside that range. edit: best analog meaning the snowiest and one we hope ends up correct I’m not saying this is a 2014 clone coming. But I did incorporate some ideas from that winter into my expectations for this season. So far we’ve just been a bit unlucky. But every year is different. That year we got lucky and a lot of those waves hit us. A similar pattern won’t necessarily produce as good of results.

Dr No(GFS) Coating on Ralphs Christmas decorations 1.3" south Philly

I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is).

I've made plenty of good and bad decisions in my life. This move has been the best good decision by many miles. On top of cost of living, things like never sitting in traffic and beautiful scenery are quite valuable. People are genuine, honest, and helpful. Go to any store (even big box like lowes/wally) and employees are genuinely happy to help. Neighbors will help out for any reason and never be rude or intrusive. After 25 years in Rockville I never knew this world existed lol. Rural living has drawbacks of course and I can totally understand why this type of life isn't for everyone but for us personally, our mental health has never been better and we've never been happier on a daily basis.

Euro 1" Blue mountain to 3" south Philly

Will has it. Dec is actually a very prolific month and up there on highest monthly average.

Love the tiny 4" jackpot for Annapolis

Me and Tequila Barry there around then as well. I heard Ray is using his boys Red Rider wagon to haul in his blog for us to read.

Clearly not leaning on gfs with their thoughts since they have the 1” line back to I-81.

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

A 2 pm 4 model blend for Augusta County is .6" Kuchera. WWA's for Rockbridge south for 1 - 3 inches

Dec snows last 100 plus years in Hartford 50/50 shot of big snows.

there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas

NWS is very agressive:

Not to mention you can all models/runs for free on Pivotal Weather beta site.