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The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO

The OZ UKMET looks to be a closer to the coast track as the HP in southeast Canada is not as strong - starting at least as Frozen in the metro - the Canadian and the Euro AI are offshore tracks

EURO and the GFS both have snow next week.. its coming

The important feature is the strong enough cold enough HP in southeast Canada staying PUT long enough to keep feeding the cold enough air in and storm track is perfect Benchmark because of this

Hopium is strong in here, and I’m here for it! If anything December looks to feature some cold in the east and the southern stream looks to become active. Volatile seems like a good word

Doing jah's work with these wbell posts

I’ve been sidelined from work since November 6th dealing with a lower back injury. Things are looking good that I’ll be cleared tomorrow to go back to work on 12/1. So, of course, a potential winter storm may dump a foot right before I go back & my 20 year old Explorer is immediately put to the test.

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run. 00z vs 18z below

Like the GFS, the Euro does have some marginal surface temps from about midnight to 6am Sunday morning from Chicago south and east. Temps aloft, however, looks to remain below 0°C during the event until you get south of Kankakee and into Indiana. At 925mb, this is the warmest frame. Air above that is solidly below 0°C.

Definitely! And thus, the totals ticked up decently from the 18z run.

before reading, initial instinct was 2011-2012 lol. that's wild, forgot that happened.

0z Euro has it too. More of a hit for the LV/Poconos but it's there.

We are in midseason form. Gfs big yes. Dr no big no

Oh Im at hour 144 and thought it might be a bit better

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.

The GFS ended up with multiple fronts and a couple of shots of wintery precip for the forum area.

'Next to December now. And still got 3+ in. hailers (and likely over 80 DBZ reflectivity and 55 Kft storm tops), in the state tonight..

AIFS suppressed. Toss. EURO amped. Average them out

Over in the MA forum. Sometimes I get lost...

Where is the snow map?

0z GEFS is slightly drier/south compared to 18z. So the GFS and GEFS moved towards each other this run.

A thing of beauty upstairs too.

GEFS is awful.... ...if you hate snow! There's a substantial increase in the mean from 18z and 12z.