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Dream set up for the triangle east. Honestly it seems like the consensus is reverting back to that area between Raleigh and Greenville being the jackpot, similar to what was being modeled earlier in the week with the low being closer to the coast. Regardless i think most of the state gets atleast 3 inches. Georgia and SC folks i'd be a little nervous though

*you’re

ULL is a bit more north and transfers earlier. I still think y’all will be fine in the upstate in the 3-6 range

6z ICON

Icon is acceptable

Thank you! Exactly what I was just talking about.. Wherever this ends up setting up is going to be key.. It’s a race between the development of the storm & the dry air … Still right on the boarder line at this point but definitely trending in a good direction at this point…

I'll be very surprised if surface temps get above 35 tomorrow in the central valley. Not that there is a chance of rain lol, just saying, some of these upper 30s progs don't feel right before the precip falls.

3k nam buts the axe in us :/ .

6z ICON is coming in drier, too

Yeesh. Why such a large dry slot compared to the other models? What is it seeing the other models aren’t?

Horrible…being that I live in the “screw zone!”

Only a couple hundred mile shift....The NAM is just looking for attention

pumping snow. Band after band.

Hopefully the 3K is out to lunch. That dry slot doesn’t seem to have any other model support for now thankfully. How does the 12K NAM look?

How does this work for everyone? Edit: see I was late posting the map on the previous page.

6z NAM is way NW. 3k NAM is less aggressive but also significantly NW.

Luckily it’s on an island by itself for now.

absolutely insane rates in E NC on the 3k nam. LP just sitting there absolutely cranking for 20+ hours straight. Looks like models are catching on to it being more west, somewhat in line with the Gulf Stream. Dream E NC setup

Is the NAM trying to do something here

Here is RAP

Convection wasn't as strong to start with the Bahama low hope that's a trend

The upstream low was closer and weaker than previous runs so it was more lobular and not totally discrete. I still think that whole look would be a bit of a nowcast.

3k NAM QPF

What’s the point? A large population cannot even comprehend probabilities at their most simple application. Weather based probabilities already introduce a different dimension where product/forecast type and area coverage muddy how one would interpret the chance that x outcome happens specifically at their location. Ask a person what a 60% probability of an event happening within 25 miles of them means. Not a damn clue. This added level of complexity, then, cannot be for the benefit of the public. Suppose it’s a more hyper specific mode of grading forecasts internally?