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You guys are weather ppl. How do you not have ice melt going into winter or at least 5 days ago seeing this on guidance, whether real or mirage? Stocked up on ice melt 3 weeks ago. And for good measure, hit the grocery store Monday. Scrambling last minute is for the birds. Rookies

We went 3-0 in the preseason .

Up here GYX is saying we don’t start until after 5 PM on Sunday. That seems late based on what I’ve been seeing and reading. And I don’t think it would be more than maybe three or four hours after you start.

Long time member; had to re-create my account after several unsuccessful attempts at recovery/password update. SE Suburb -- ESE of Downtown Cincy Rare -> High ratio event for SW OH (or so it appears)

Intitially? Not for the same sort of physical causes ... which you intimated. Isentropic snow events tend to be more uniform in character. They are caused by general flow up an elevated frontal slope... Cold in the low levels, with an arriving warmer, potentially psuedo-adiabatic unstable air mass then forced up over the front; eventually through it's unstable altitude/pressure level it starts rising and precipitating... etc. That tends to be more linearly distribute action, such that you get a general rad display... Those meso bands you are thinking of, like that 2020 Dec hyper version, are elevated convergence axis formed from differential mid tropospheric jets moving past and air moving preferentially toward the region of best synoptic forcing to rise. Lots of pricey physical math later, then crossing that up with the aspects above, you can get huge results. In this sense... yeah ... if the latter low does get more mechanically coherent, then some meso banding could set up associated with that. There will be differential jet advection going on associated with that so it could. Just about all defined low pressures have meso structures... You can see them here on this 12z GFS regarding the later big dawg blizzard it has for the 31st

Meanwhile trying to hold on to my snowcover at 45F

LOL. Minus 5.

You could get crazy numbers between the flow and being just to the north

Not gonna lie as much as im enjoying the snow, its really nice out with the sun shining and close to 40 degrees. Feels refreshing.

Not done gon’ north.

Question? If I had a sled on top of Fancy gap and rode down the mountain, would I reach statesville, or just keep heading south to Rock Hill!!!

Any chance these precip amounts are overdone. Maybe way overdone?

For anyone interested, Hurricane Hunter recon flights are going out again this afternoon and the data they collect will be ingested into the 0z model runs tonight. The number/scope of weather balloon launches across the CONUS will also remain increased this afternoon and that data will also be in the new runs at 0z

Yup. Effectively, draw a 45 degree NE line from Charlotte North into Va. on the west/upper side of it, cut 75% of that qpf off the zr totals and add it to sleet and that should be about right. .

Now I have to tell family members forget about 15" snow and they won't believe it lol

I’ll see if I can find the article I read earlier but your guess is correct. That air mass is from what I understand more dense than modeled. .

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1225 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 A significant winter storm is expected to impact the Southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, and much of the south and central CONUS, through the weekend. We are currently in a colder, longwave troughing pattern across the Eastern CONUS with ridging across the eastern Pacific. A northern stream shortwave will begin to phase with an ejecting southern vort max on Sunday resulting in a quickly intensifying surface low pressure system that will move northeast across the East Coast. Strong high pressure to the north keeps us dry today and Friday, but increasing southerly flow aloft will result in increased cloud cover late Friday into Saturday morning. As isentropic lift increases across the region, light precipitation will be possible Saturday morning, but dry air at the surface will limit any accumulating snow or sleet. By the afternoon, the surface becomes saturated with wintry precipitation expected to begin accumulating across the region. To begin, areas near Interstate 40 and northward are expected to have the entire atmospheric column below freezing which will result in some potential snow to start on Saturday afternoon. As southerly flow and WAA continues to warm temperatures between 850mb and 800mb, temperatures increase to around +2 to +3 degC by late Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will result in a lot of sleet and a transition to freezing rain across the region. In addition, the southerly flow and subsidence along the western slopes of the Appalachians will result in warming surface temperatures across the western slopes of the mountains with areas around Gatlinburg to Newport to Greeneville likely warming up above freezing pretty quickly on Saturday night. This will limit ice accumulation for these areas. Across the valley and plateau, there are several variables that will determine total snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulation. The first variable is the cold air aloft. Most of the snow will be limited to areas near the Kentucky state line, and snow totals will likely be compacted by sleet and freezing rain mixing in on Saturday night. Further south, sleet and freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation types on Saturday afternoon and night. The second uncertain variable is the warm nose temperature around 800mb overnight; It will be near the sleet/freezing rain cutoff. We likely get a mix of both sleet and freezing rain for much of central East Tennessee, but depending on the exact mix, we may have significantly more ice accretion due to freezing rain or significantly more sleet (and less ice accretion). In addition, the third variable is how cold are surface temperatures and where do we wet bulb? Model guidance has significant variability in dew points ahead of the precipitation, but based on the consensus of most guidance, we should be cold enough in the mid 20s to get a decent amount of ice accumulation before temperatures begin to warm into Sunday morning. Overall, a large portion of the region will likely see a trace to a half-inch of sleet and one-quarter to one- half inch of ice accumulation. Southern areas near the Georgia state line may only see a trace to one-tenth of an inch of ice before the transition to rain. The caveat across the south is the higher elevations around Chattanooga such as Signal Mountain, Mowbray Mountain, Lookout Mountain, and surrounding portions of the southern plateau may see higher ice totals up to around 0.5 inch. Still, even the lower amounts would cause significant travel impacts on Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This forecast is likely to change as we continue to refine the forecast with the most recent observations tonight and tomorrow, so please continue to follow the latest updates. Because of the uncertainty in precipitation types and amounts, we will continue with the Winter Storm Watch to message the risk of significant winter weather hazards, and we will plan on upgrades to warnings or advisories tonight or tomorrow when we are within 24 to 36 hours of the event beginning. On Sunday afternoon, the main 850mb low will be to our west with WAA finally warming most, if not all, areas above freezing. Temperatures will likely be slower to warm on Sunday morning across the valley compared to what deterministic models indicate because of the cold, dense air entrenched across the valley. WAA should finally win out by the afternoon across the valley, but it will take some time. By Sunday night, northwest flow returns with strong CAA and very cold air arriving through the night and on Monday. We may continue to see some orographic snowfall or rime ice across the northeast Tennessee mountains through Monday morning, but accumulations should be light. This very cold airmass will result in temperatures 20 to 25 degrees below normal on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday morning, temperatures drop down into the single digits for most locations with temperatures near or below zero across the higher elevations. Wind chill values across the higher terrain are forecast to be in the -5F to -15F range; however, calm winds across the lower elevations should mitigate the wind chill risk. Tuesday morning will be frigid across the region, though. As we move into mid-week, max temperatures begin to moderate but remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front will bring a reinforcing cold airmass by late next week with temperatures struggling to get above freezing next Thursday.

"Snow and sleet before 1pm, then freezing rain and sleet. The sleet could be heavy at times. High near 25. Chance of precipitation is 100%." I don't think I've ever seen a "heavy sleet" point forecast before. Lovely.

I agree. I remember the huge snow mounds in the city after the 3/14/17 storm even though a huge amount was sleet. Sleet has a disproportionately high impact for how much of it falls-1” of sleet is the same water content as 3-4” of snow and it tends to stick around a lot longer. I’d rather it snow all things considered but anyone who wants deep long lasting snowpack shouldn’t complain about some sleet thrown in after a big thump of snow.

That's the most likely scenario unfortunately

should be here in a hour and a half or so.. newest frames are even better

Love that blob hanging over my head

Real feel Euro for next Thursday. @Matthew70, this is what we don't want, right? -40 real feels in the Apps. -10s to -20s in the valleys.