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January thaw?

A lot of those events just didn’t have the confluence that we have with this one. It would start out as a wave moving off of NC and just tickle NW each run.

No man, all would not like an ice storm Christmas. I'll drive in the snow and be fine with that. But driving in ice is a absolute no! And I would venture to guess that a lot of us travel either Christmas Eve or Christmas day. But I'll be sure to put a good word into mother nature to make sure you have a good ice storm right in your hood.

When someone says we all would, It really means he would.

That was freaking ravaging.

Just saying, here in Mid Tn,during NINO'S we can have destructive ice storms compared to NINA.Its really rare in a NINO winter to not see ZR or IP fall underneath SN and not just all SN.We've had in the past I.E in the 50's and 90's some destructive ice storms in MID TN.,during a NINO,for what ever reason NINA seems to bring late season snow here that falls at night/early morning and melts during the day,this is always late into winter early spring.But i'm not saying it cant snow,its winter,just the odds are it might not happen

Today’s GEFS PNA forecast is the most negative for this Dec that I can recall: This implies the realistic chance for a sub -1 Dec PNA. Whereas that’s bad news for those wanting E US cold in the 2nd half of Dec in the MidAtlantic/OH Valley south, it isn’t necessarily bad news for January prospects. That’s because in the vast majority of cases for -ENSO, the PNA in January rose sharply from Dec: PNA Dec/Jan for -ENSO for strongly -PNA in Dec - 1955-6: -2.1/-1.3 (rose 0.8) - 1961-2: -1.2/-0.1 (rose 1.1) - 1964-5: -1.7/-0.2 (rose 1.5) - 1971-2: -1.5/-1.4 (rose 0.1) - 1984-5: -1.6/+1.6 (rose 3.2) - 1996-7: -1.2/+0.6 (rose 1.8) - 2008-9: -1.4/+0.6 (rose 2.0) - 2010-1: -1.8/+1.3 (rose 3.1) - 2012-3: -1.0/+0.6 (rose 1.6) - 2013-4: -0.9/+1.0 (rose 1.9) - 2021-2: -1.6/+1.0 (rose 2.6) So, average PNA rise Dec to Jan for these was a whopping 1.8! Dec temperature anomalies: coldest N Rockies to N Plains/mild much of SE 1/3: Jan temp. anomalies: coldest shifts 1,000 miles SE and warmth gone https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

NBM/SREF adjustments it looks like. Those are the only things that got drier to my knowledge.

I'm hungry, what can I say!

Yes some know some pretend

Those were absolutely rotten winters. Even the snowstorm that followed in January 2016 couldn't save the 2015-2016 winter.

Pasta of Jersey... not sure I ever tried that. Tried plenty of Jersey pasta sauces

Two different models, and BIG differences for our back yards as a result. The 12z GFS has a cold front on Christmas Eve. The 12z Euro...not so much. The difference? The Euro has a much deeper area of BN heights in the eastern Pac (which originated on the NA continent...I guess that could happen but I am no holding my breath). Conversely, the GFS slides an area of BN heights over the GL(versus dumping it all into the Pac), and a strong cold front results over our region. Look at the difference in the ridge over NA. Below is a nearer term difference. This time the 12z Euro has a cold front over the East on Dec 20th. The AIFS, CMC, and ICON all have this. The GFS is the outlier. The ridge and trough locations are exactly the opposite next Friday. The GFS somehow loses energy heading East. The results are polar opposites. All of this is to say that small differences over the eastern Pacific are having huge downstream impacts. In some cases, we are seeing 50-60 degree swings in modeling. And I feel like I have typed that before...maybe later November? I do think we see some Chinook winds. That seems almost inescapable as SLPs transit the Rockies. But cold air "should" cave behind the low as it passes. Our advantage this years is that big green blob in northern Canada which recent climo had as AN heights - ie. we have a cold air source. I also think ensembles are washing things out due to the means. IF(stress) we are seeing feedback which is amping ridges in the east too much, then the average temp of all members is going to be very skewed. Things get washed out. IMO, a very back and forth, amplified pattern "could" be coming up as an alternative to the torch. If we can swing a trough through on the 20th and on Christmas Eve, that is tolerable?

yeah, not really a torch pattern with the -WPO encroaching into AK and the TPV elongated like that. sure, it's a torch for 75% of the CONUS, but who cares

Dec 25th 1994 in the dark from a tropical storm the night before. So much fun

Lads lads lads. Sinceramente: how much for Philly?

By the way Timmy funny how my "improperly sited wx station" is statistically exactly the same average temperature variance over 17 full years vs KMQS a raw difference of only 0.4 degrees

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-130245- /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0011.251214T0300Z-251214T1800Z/ Hudson-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)- Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 139 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 10 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous.

Winter weather advisories are now up 2-4 inches for long Island and pasta of jersey and nyc, I think southern ct as well. But I only looked at the slack nws feed for a second. Correction long island nyc south not CT.

Yes hello I am here

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106- 131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest, Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville, Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown, Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill, Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

No they arent . Not a huge warmup.

I know this is Mt. Holly... but definitely thought they'd wait one more model cycle URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ070-071-101>106- 131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Hunterdon- Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland- Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Pottstown, Media, West Chester, Camden, Morrisville, Pennsville, Wharton State Forest, Jackson, Easton, New Brunswick, Freehold, Somerville, Collegeville, Dover, Cape May Court House, Mount Holly, Honey Brook, Glassboro, Perkasie, Hammonton, Norristown, Moorestown, Lansdale, Ocean City, Millville, Oxford, Kennett Square, Chalfont, Denton, Atlantic City, Centreville, Cherry Hill, Chestertown, Flemington, Trenton, Philadelphia, Long Beach Island, Wilmington, and Doylestown 137 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.