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next it's going to be congrats north pole

Last Feb was a pretty funny one. Remember that? Lol

Can you keep this in banter? no one should be cliff diving FFS

guys just to walk you off the cliff here, the high on Sunday somewhere between 19 and 23°. This is not your NYC run of the mill snowstorm where this is going to rain or you’re not gonna get accumulation. I think some of you are losing sight of that but this sleet potential. Whatever falls is going to stick and it’s gonna stick hard

uh ohhhh!

Does it have any sleet into Georgia?

The Taint storm of 2026. It has a weird ring to it.

Ready to seeder feeder our way to a low end advisory event

I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind.

RGEM is textbook placement of the HP over north of NY/Canada border. Thing of beauty.

i'm going with euro ai

We saw how much mixing the CMC showed on the 12z run and Euro brought in mixing early Sunday afternoon, so this ICON run isn't something new. We're trending in that direction. Hopefully our major snowstorm won't fall apart. We will get a front end dump due to the arctic air in place, but it wouldn't be a shock if it's just a mediocre 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 dump before mixing like we've seen many times in the past. Of course the big amounts are very possible too -- a long way to go with this.

It does seem like little steps are being made in that direction run by run with the daytime runs today but we've still got a good amount of clock to eat. There are hints -- whispers! -- of a long duration needle-threader, but most who detect them dare not speak of it. I'm down here just hoping to stop seeing outputs where the primary low is bullying the 1040 high into a beefy cameltoe.

For what it's worth 18Z RGEM has a mega sleet bomb for majority of the Carolinas. Trying hard to come down with authority for snow north of 460. Beautiful 1043MB high parked up north of the NY/Canada border.

No snow for that area?

I'm reading this wrong?-it looks like he has RVA in "A"

When the measly ICON is northwest, bombs away

no more north please.

Icon basically has a perfect, full phase of the northern stream and the Baja low. It’s textbook. We’ve only seen that on like 1-2 runs of varsity models yet for this storm? Seems pretty unlikely with how much is going on. I’ll take 6” and taint as the fail scenario.

My gut says north of I-85 and west of the triangle is a sleet fest of epic proportions and that’ll start showing itself in short range guidance tomorrow and Friday.

Ya'll are so predictable...just saying

The 850 LP is what's wrecking thermals the most..surface LP is only a smaller pct of problem

Mein leiblingswettermodell, das ICON, ist NW