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The exact locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS. So December 2015 became a trendsetter and not an outlier. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

A SSW this early IS unprecedented

45/36 this morning, no frost today

Overnight 00z EPS jumps to 86% of it's members... Gefs now at 65%.. EPS looks impressive if you loop 10 and especially 50 mb.

48 when I left the house. Another awesome weather week ahead of us. Kids are starting to get ramped up for Halloween and Green Bay fandom is none too pleased with NFL officiating at the moment. I understand those two things are completely unrelated ha. Have a great week everyone!

actually gonna sell an anomalous morch tier event (ez call always given how extreme that was) but suspect southern stream and pac dominance will keeps things steadily above average/mild

Farmers' Almanac · Could Halloween’s winds hold a clue to winter? “Whatever way the wind blows on Halloween, it will blow that way the whole winter.” — Old Irish Weather Saying It’s folklore rather than a reliable forecast, but a fun reason to watch the rustling leaves this October 31! Will your trick-or-treaters need an extra layer or an umbrella? Have you heard this saying before?

I disagree. Think we'll see 1-2 more named storms in early November. About a 30% chance of another hurricane. Best chances in the central Atlantic southeast of Bermuda. Also a chance off the SE US coast, though likely brief. Smaller chances near/sw of the Azores and in the western/central Caribbean. The "high over low" pattern encourages low level convergence and anomalously low shear in the subtropics.

The strong low frequency (El Nino) forcing is totally different from what we saw back in 2015. The MC and eastern IO is completely shutdown and has been since spring, courtesy of the severely east-based super Nino, weak MJO, due to the Nino overwhelming everything, the entire 30C warm pool is moved all the way to 140W and the +IOD is reinforcing all of this. The ++PMM is also helping to lock it in

That’s the classic week 3 to 4 Euro default 500 mb pattern it was running with during November 2015. It didn’t start to see the actual December 2015 pattern until the month already started. Not much skill with the weeklies beyond 15 days. Forecast Verification

Arnab looks quite good as it approaches land. I bet it is 125-130 kt given it pinhole eye and small size (115 kt at 06z). One things that has bugged me w/ JTWC wind fcst once a system is inland. Look at the 28/06z fcst position on the graphic attached. It is a good 30 nm inland by that point, and still 100 kt sustained? That is unrealistic given how coefficient of friction over land is much higher over than water, so winds drop very quickly. And the TC will be quickly weakening at the same time. And still 65 kt sustained 12 hr later farther inland? No way. Now, for this two fcst positions, 100 kt and 65 kt *gusts* at these times are reasonable, but that's a huge difference in sensible wx than these sustained values! Look at the HAFS-A fcst for landfall and when it is just inland. The model shows how big the effects of land friction are!

With all the Lamar critics in the media and elsewhere, you think it was better to have him considered to be day-to-day for 3 effing weeks? What kind of bullshit is that? If the diagnosis is a high ankle sprain, then the team needs to report it as such. Instead it was left to speculation by the insiders and others about the extent of the injury, which just feeds the perception that he won't play with a minor injury/unless he is 100%.

I guess no, temp here is 46F, almost 20 degrees warmer than the last few days

There is a possibility that Lamar may not have wanted to put it out there either. Notice how the national media can never get many details when he's out. But regardless of the reason...how do you go from this to "Lamar and the Ravens should part ways"? That's LaConfora mania stuff right there, lol What kind of dangerous game? What kind of bad situation? I mean Lamar could've revealed the injury at any time. Coulda been his choice for all we know (although I'd love for somebody to ask him why he didn't say anything earlier). To me this was more gamesmanship than anything else. They aren't betraying Lamar or smearing him on purpose, or something damaging to the relationship. I doubt that...and once he (most likely) extends, this will all be moot and he'll be here.

Hailstone record CT 7/4/26 @weatherwiz PT? https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/2110020388004462779 One thing though, it is not a complete even radius circular stone, like many giant hailstones are. Looks more a fused conglomerate rather than a mass that goes up and down in the supercooled layer getting more even layer coating each time. SCEC PDF report attached. It also noted the baseball hail event from 6/20/1995 from supercells dropping from the due N. Radar attached. Was @weatherwiz aware of this event? I bet @CoastalWx was not! The anvil canopy spread NE from this storm w/ CBMAM over BOS area. 20261013-Connecticut-Hailstone.pdf

You obviously don't know what the average recovery time for a high ankle sprain is, then. 4-6 weeks. So somehow, in a non-playoff situation, Lamar was supposed to come back the next week or two and play on it hobbling around not able to plant or throw? With 12 games to go and no bye week until December? Bruh...no QB is gonna do that. No player is doing that period--not with that kind of sprain. I'm sorry but these arguments about this particular injury are straight up ignorant now that we know what kind of sprain it is. Call him injury prone I get, because that can certainly be a legit discussion. But arguing that he play on a high-ankle sprain for weeks just because Mahomes somehow did it for a couple games? (And again him doing that was an extreme outlier to the norm) Illogical and unrealistic argument.