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I just saw this, which suggests the NHC may be going with a 30 knot subtropical depression perhaps due to the center being too broad for TD status: AL, 92, 2025070418, , BEST, 0, 309N, 790W, 30, 1012, SD

79 degree's out. Gorgeous. Only been outside once at work and that was to check on the cook for the bbq we're having. Got bbq hook up outside to natural gas when we built this place. Lots of food. Ready for nap.

Exactly - not much middle ground.

We have been seeing these lulls in recent years when the subtropical warming has increased faster than the tropics. But often by later in the season SST anomalies between the tropics and subtropics balance out. So the tropics sit quietly gaining record amounts of heat through the season with suppressed convection. But when the hurricanes do finally form later on, we get these rapidly intensifying hurricanes becoming majors right before landfall on the Gulf Coast. Different from the old days when most hurricanes seemed to weaken right before landfalling.

86/56. Doesn’t get much better in July

Looks too broad based on what we have right now, but they need to sample that north side.

Severe storms usually overperform when we have steep lapse rates and such unstable soundings.

Why are the mid-latitudes warming though? It might just be a pattern that fluxes up and down, with general global warming.

I actually sat outside all morning, and occasionally a few times this afternoon. Unbelievable!

The winds are high enough but is the circulation tight enough to be classified as a TD+? Based on images with wind barbs, it seems kind of broad. Opinions?

2009 rainy and raw 2007 chilly start 2001 chilly 7/4/92 nastiest 4th ever

I love that Big Y. Even when its busy, its manageable to get around the store and I don't think I've ever had to wait more than 2-3 minutes to get a self checkout register.

The record WPAC warm pool and Aleutian Ridge are much more amplified than we typically see from +WPO patterns. Same goes for the new way the -PDO has played out in the 2020s. So the hemispheric expansion of the subtropical ridges are creating their own pattern.

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/7c55db9f01d7329acb2717f2a485c8bc?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwLVBgRjbGNrAtUF02V4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeOPuZLPYb_URFXsFrzVHLuYih3Ej026AZRkmmqR8aolTWqUNr29rd2tgHKrc_aem_YdTn038-IAEpYKwapOwphQ

I do recall some miserable cold and rainy ones around 10-15 years ago I also remember a very hot one in 1999 I think?

What was the 19th hottest of the top of your head if it's so memorable?

Happy 4th of July.

could not get a more perfect day for the fourth of july comfortable temps very low humidity and a gentle breeze it felt great outside..

I know. Never expected even looking at radar that it would be that bad. Didn't even feel like a typical severe day

12z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr is trying to bring back the Aleutian ridge and Northeast US/SE Canada pretty major ridge.

I must have just missed you, I was there yesterday but left before the storms.

I'm 77/57 too, beautiful day out there today, nice little breeze now and then. I can live without the heat and high dews.

I hope the power comes back for you much sooner than that. I can't imagine not having it for 7 to 10 days, wow. But the main thing is you're ok. Horrible that some houses got crushed and 3 people died. We root for strong t-storms, but of course we don't want to see a storm that's this incredibly severe.

Different types of root systems on sycamores than oaks would be my guess on why the sycamores survived. Oaks I know have a lateral root system that are not deep. You cut one of those main lateral roots, and you have weakened that entire side. Add in soaking rains, softening the soil, the winds, and you get trees falling like they did in the picture.

Disintegrated. Any wreckage either wound up in a nearby marina, or was washed into the Barnegat Bay. What I find unbelievable is that they said that there were not any underwater obstructions after Sandy. My boat, mounted on the trailer, snapped off and settled in a nearby federal wetlands. Sea Tow insurance would not take it, and they said it would be a few thousand to rescue it. Luckily, I declared it lost and the insurance took claim of it. Later, the federal government said I had to move it, but I told them the insurance company now "owns" it. The area, Good Luck Pont in Bayville NJ was a total war zone. I had thought I would never see so much damage in person...