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Ha, hoping for a good event here in SLK. Snowing nicely right now.

dry air not a problem here

27.5 and SN here at WXW2

I think we crush soon wish I kept the 2 to 4 I had earlier.. I think we easily see that now

snowing here

what are we hmmming over? zero or non-zero OMS for that, now bring that 100mi NW with some support and i'll consider it -but i don't think the overall pattern really supports that type of outcome anyway

The really cold classic winter pattern is probably over. However bowling balls and other vigorous systems can still bring snow for another month, especially I-40 north. Indeed the torch does not last forever and the 16-20 day trends back toward normal temps.

Love how dead this place is with a couple inches of snow compared to a sne thread. I have 2.5 inches in 3 hours, ain't nothin' to sneeze at

DZ and IP obs in the slot in the CT RV.

1988 does appear to be a good anti-analog. This my favorite La Nina, because it was independent, strong on its own, it wasn't part of a 2 or 3 year phase. I think you see La Nina effects better in analogs such as 88-89. We did have 2 El Nino's 2 years before, which inversely matches the RONI 2 La Nina's of the last 2 years. Jan-Feb 1988 was also the most subsurface cold water anomaly of the analogs. This matches this year being one of the warmest subsurface anomalies (whole subsurface area). Also to note, although the subsurface analog matches give off a strong signal (80% going in the direction later in the year), I think it's inflated a little high, because there are only 10 examples. More reasonable is probably 60% odds, based on the subsurface.

Valley

You should snow soon though

Yep. Dry air.

@CoastalWxI have 30dbz overhead with nothing falling. You called it earlier.

Agreed, the Sunday chance is still way too close to write off at this range. The 18z Euro was a close call & grazes southern PA with some light snow this run. It was not far away from something more.

agreed, but it was still better than many others we've suffered through.

Temp down to 29F/ snow, about 1/4"

earlier we went from a few flakes to dumping in about 30 seconds came in like a wall

This really isn't a frontloaded winter. Our biggest storm was on January 25, and our coldest air of the season went into February. When I think of a frontloaded winter, the cold and snow comes in November and December, and the worst is out by January 15 at the latest. 1989-90 is one that comes to mind.

Still 1-2”.. lolli 3 thinking?

Feb is typically our snowiest month but so far and as far as we can see it’s a strikeout. Maybe something will happen by the end of the month but it’s not promising right now. I don’t think this winter is a failure by any means like the last few but if we strike out on snow from here it’ll be average or a little better in general because of the cold. But that’s my opinion.

MDT only needs 9 inches or so more of snow to reach seasonal average of 30 inches by early April. We still have 6 realistic weeks to score, so it’s certainly within reach.

We went from nothing to heavy snow in record time I think not even 10 minutes

Just saw a video from East Longmeadow and they switched to sleet

Hoping we can get some decent sun with the warmer temps tomorrow to start to thaw some of this ice and snow pack that has gotten so gross. A good soaking rain would be beneficial for multiple reasons as well but have to wait a bit for one or those it looks like.