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If that's the case, fire danger will be extreme this fall until the wetter pattern sets in.

Good to see some 90s showing up for some of the area. Hoping to get in on some of that.

As mentioned the drought has largely remained the same since last week's update. With that said with a brutal heatwave coming, this is likely to worsen again and Falls Lake levels are going to drop some more outside of pop up storms. May the odds be ever in our favor. As mentione

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

One aspect that intrigues me about that final/ending statement, "While our findings provide many avenues for interesting and relevant new research, the authors stress that the best way to reduce both uncertainty in and exposure to climate impacts is a rapid transition of relevant societal sectors away from fossil fuels to stabilize global temperature rise", is that the climate response has actually lagged behind the anthropomorphic contributed forcing. Or in other words, the latter has outpaced the former. I keep reading statements - no fault to the author as it's not specific to their study - like this, where it "seems" or intimates a 1::1 causality in time. As though if the ideal reality could ever be achieved, where there were a sudden and abrupt cessation of fossil fuel use, there would thus begin an immediately response and stabilizing climate. That is unfortunately not the case. In any such idealized state of affairs, the Earth would like keep warming until it satisfies the total thermal regulation/balance. Another way to look at it is, there is room for the present atmospheric chemistry to store yet more thermal energy that it is. Another possibility ( intuitive speculation) is that the modulating aspect of the global oceanic quasi coupling to this mess we are in, might also continue to absorb the lion's share of the warming human activity should otherwise have realized. 90% of which has sunk into the oceans (btw) since the Industrial Revolution. So in simpler terms, it's possible that a sudden stoppage of fossil fuel combustion might register more slowing of the warming due to this factor.

Damn, got hit pretty good here last night. Nearly continuous thunder/lightning for a couple hours, .34" of rain and some hail. Looked like the Littleton area really got slammed. Getting some more light rain this morning, too.

We will have to see exactly where the ride/heat dome sets up. If it's too far east, stuff will miss us to the north I call likelihood. Too far west and stuff may have a tendency to miss south. Also important is how steep H5 is. Lots of variables.

My niece's graduation party that day. I think my sister would prefer the few showers, haha

July fourth temps are scorching. An appropriate portend these days

57F in Lancaster this morning. It is going to be a scorcher in a few days.

I’ve had a few sites giving me issues…but Wow handles the server stuff. Not sure what the cause is yet.

The lagging for the last 2 days has been terrible at AmericanWx!

I'm not sure if this is objectively true but this does seem "intuitively" to be quite fast for an onset differential - coarse kind of resolution/presentation as it may be... What's the average modality timing with these things...etc

has anyone else been receiving occasional report backs with Gate way lag/failures. It's saying it is at this end, btw. American's problem if the report is to be believed.

Low of 58. Hoping for some beneficial rains the next three days but not super confident we get a whole lot. Heat builds for 4th of July week.

Only got 0.27" Monday-Tuesday and only 0.88" so far for the entire month of June. Pretty typical of the south shore this time of year. 0.66" at ISP is the second driest June on record but we still have a few days to go with some rain chances. Only 1988 and 2005 were drier through the first 24 days of June. ISP has not seen a June with above normal precipitation (at least 3.77") since 2013 when we had 8.03". Since 2019, ISP has not seen a June with more than 2.27" of rain. '20, '21, '23, '24, and '25 all finished with rain totals less than 2". 2026 will likely be added to that list.

haha... Brain... no, Brian

I'd actually say 50/50 shot that the westward sudden retrograde idea around the 4th to 7th of July is too aggressive. As I said to Brain, the purer derived numerical teleconnectors, from all sources, are graphically not really propagating the rising PNA curve closer in time. Repositioning them toward the right on the graphs means any retrograde is been pushed back. I think what is more telling about that isn't a pattern flip, it's more a pattern uncertainty. It's like the modeling tech et al loses the linear more detectable physical forcing in the nearer terms, then that immediately exposes the vestigial perennial non-linearity of the N/A continent favoring higher heights over the Rockies.

So Saturday looks like a few showers or a complete washout with 1 to 2" of rain

Is there a big snowstorm coming or something?

Yeah I hear ya. My gut says to lean warmer this time of year at this range…at least until there’s more consistency of Atlantic taint toward d5. 6z gfs had some pretty hot days in there…granted we’re getting past 180hr and it may be doing some of that overmixing again. 98/49 probably verifies as 93/65.

No significant changes with drought in NC with today's update-

I get a bad gateway annoucement and it takes a long time to load as you mentioned.

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (2025) NYC: 99 (1952) LGA: 99 (1952) / (2025) JFK: 102 (2025) Lows: EWR: 53 (1932) NYC: 53 (1873) LGA: 55 (1940) JFK: 54 (1965) Historical: 1749 — A general fast was called on account of drought in Massachusetts. It was the year of the famous dry spring in which fields and villages burned. (David Ludlum) 1925 — The mercury hit 101 degrees at Portland, OR, their earliest 100 degree reading of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1953 - The temperature at Anchorage soared to 86 degrees, their hottest reading of record. (The Weather Channel) 1957: Hurricane Audrey moved northward, slowly strengthening until the 26th. At that time, a strong upper-level trough led to its acceleration and the hurricane deepened rapidly on its final approach to the Texas/Louisiana border. Audrey became the strongest hurricane on record for June upon landfall, as it reached category four strength. Its acceleration was unanticipated, and despite hurricane warnings in place, 418 people perished in the storm, mainly across southwest Louisiana. 1981: Late afternoon violent thunderstorms moved across the region. Allentown, PA recorded a gust to 77 mph, with quite a few roofs blown off, chimneys toppled, windows blown in, several barns blown over, and innumerable trees felled. Power was interrupted to almost 100,000 customers, some without power for several days. Heavy rain caused flooding and mudslides. Philadelphia, PA received 1.91 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983: A quarter of an inch of early summer snow was reported near the towns of Sharon and Hartford in the higher terrain of central Vermont. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Miami, FL, 107 degrees at Medford, OR, and 111 degrees at Redding CA were new records for the date. It was the third of six straight days of record heat for Miami. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Austin, and gusts to 75 mph at Tulsa OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 100 degrees at Erie, PA, and 104 degrees at Cleveland OH established all- time records for those two locations. Highs of 101 degrees at Flint, MI, 105 degrees at Chicago, IL, and 106 degrees at Fort Wayne, IN, equalled all-time records. Thunderstorms in Idaho produced wind gusts to 100 mph west of Bliss and north of Crouch, injuring 29 persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Tropical depression Allison, the remnants of what was earlier Cosme (a hurricane over the Pacific Ocean which dissipated as it crossed northern Mexico), began to spread heavy rain into southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Borrego Springs, CA hit 122°; their hottest temperature on record. Phoenix, AZ set a daily record high of 120°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Blistering heat prevailed across the southwest deserts as many daily record highs were set including: Yuma, AZ: 119°, Tucson, AZ: 115° and Winslow, AZ: 103 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: Flood in Orange, Madison, Green, & Culpeper Co. as they had between 13.00 and 15.00 inches of rain. A lifeguard at a camping resort S of Myrtle Beach, SC, was hit by a lightning bolt as he was in the process of clearing the beach due to an approaching storm. He survived. Several people nearby noted “tingling sensations” when the bolt struck. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2006: The precipitation total on June 25th was 5.31 inches, a new 26 year MAXIMUM precipitation record for a day. The old record was for a calendar day was ONLY 3.86 inches on October 8, 2005. 2006: The maximum one hour rainfall intensity was 2.35 inches on the 25th which shattered the previous record not only for June but for any month. The previous 26-year record was 1.74 inches on July 28, 2000. (Annandale Weather Records) 2008: Missouri: Thunderstorms deluge northern Missouri and sections of central Illinois with 6 to 8 inches of rain. Linneus, Missouri was hardest hit with 8.61 inches while nearby Ethel reported 7.88 inches and Gallatin 6.80 inches. (Ref. WxDoctor)

The GFS actually hangs the warm front right over us for 2 and half days from what I see. A time in which IL/IN/OH/MI enjoy 582 to 584 dm hydrostats containing 25+C at 850 mb plasma layer, over 102 F surface blister. It's related to that stuff we talked about yesterday ..it's stacking the ridge heights uber tall, but keeping the wave lengths pretty short - does seem a little suss but who knows. I see what you are saying but the GFS is trying really hard to keep the wave ( holistically...) lengths so curved and steep that it collapses the ridge's giz pulses more S than SE. E NY/PA and NE ends up more just humid and thundery and probably MCS traffic cops. It's a form of summer weather for sure... But just my take looking at the 00 and 06z blended GFS operational runs. Having said that... what's interesting is that the GEFs/GEPs means are actually cleaner looking than the operational versions of either cluster. That in and of itself is likely just smoothing from the member tussle/averaging.. .but, it shows also that this is precarious, because those smoother inclinations actually would send an over top heat crest in a couple of 18 hour separated maxes... (too detailed to make that call, but I have long years of experience at this point). Interesting. I'd say the ens means look more more "successful" in the over top method. Of course, still D7... The blend of all looks high confidence for the southern GL region to suffer a short duration very intense heat wave. No comment on historical this-that comparisons for now. Regarding that, those 2-m Ts do not look correct given the holistic, synoptic- parametric constituency that is objectively modeled. Not unusual though - not sure why 2-m products really exist. It is clear they either stop the adiabats at something higher than the surface sigmas (thus can't be 2 meter anything...) or just suck too bad to even look at them. So .. short duration? I only say that because even though the ensemble spatial synoptic means can't seem to wait to toggle the entire structure dubiously quickly back W...like within 2 days flipping the PNAP on it's ass, I'd caution, the numeral teleconnector ( math provided numbers) are having difficulty getting that nearer in time. They are collapsing the wave function ... think can kicking, which means it could be rushed.