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I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.

Ok, I’m not saying your seasonal total ideas aren’t going to be wrong…but the weather obviously doesn’t care about totals and stats…so I guess my point is at some point things will snap the other way. When that is, is anybody’s guess? But If D. Sutherland is on to something, that would certainly help some. I just don’t see the angst on 12/30. But I also just picked up close to 9” too…so sometimes that helps the outlook too. I guess if you want to be upset, then go right ahead. I feel January will have some fun in store for us.

Windy, cold and some snow flurries feels like winter

correct, and the faster (or slower) flows aloft play a significant role in where ridge/trough axes occur.

Wind gust here last evening of 42mph.

I think it's still dependent on the trough axis, Paul.

Actually that would be incorrect. Fast flow doesn't necessarily inhibit storms from bombing out nor does changes in the size and structure of the Hadley Cell. They just influence the jet stream differently and shift around regions which are favorable for deep cyclogenesis. A faster flow makes it more likely for storms to bomb out farther to our west versus towards the coast and then for storms to bomb out as they move just off the coast towards Atlantic Canada.

This has that feeling of an old fashioned winter that we had growing up in the 70’s. The kind that started early in Nov/ early Dec and by the time you hit Morch you felt like it had been a year since you felt warmth . They used to be constantly cold like this . With no warmth in sight thru Jan.. it really has that vibe. Hopefully the snow follows

GSO got down to at least 21 degrees this morning

I think you are conflating what I am saying, JD.

That isn't meteorology, it simply climatology and arithmetic.

https://x.com/ajuklowpxi/status/2006002289610481752?s=46

That reminds me of the LE band from January 2024 where I got 8 inches and someone got I think 11 in that band. Hope that band thru Wash CO just comes a few miles north. I think there are several on this board right along AGC and Wash Co border who would benefit.

Here is, in my opinion, one of the big pattern keys to keep an eye on. Going to use the GFS as an example. Look at yesterday’s 18z gfs. It cut off the pac energy and retrograded it west under the building epo ridge out west Now, the newer run still building an -EPO ridge, but they’re also bringing that pac energy east which temporarily boosts the SE ridge. If this ends up happening we may have to wait another 7-10 days to let the -EPO work its magic .

Everything in meteorology is negotiable…because it’s the future, and because it’s not an exact science.

That is what it is...I don't change anything. But the numbers don't lie if it doesn't snow soon. Keep in mind I am speaking strictly about the seasonal total...this doesn't mean that there won't bee good storms at all from here on out and/or it will be warm. Not at all.

Does that officially count as an event?

He has been on the snow train theme since November along with Snowman. We have had a good December with more snow ( snow showers on the way for NYD)

I think you need to take it easy…and take a deep breath. Stick to your guns/your outlook, and let’s see how this unfolds? Long long way to go bro. Something’s gonna pop, bet on it. Not For one minute do I believe the modeling has the upper air pattern right for something 8-10 days out. So there will certainly be changes. You know this.

Coating to inch

If it amounted to like an inch and just enough to f up the roads, yup lower mich detroit

Looks like a very real shot of not much at all heading into like January 10th....I'm not a mathematician, but I have 8" now...carry the one, tie the noose.... then take a look at years with that kind of total headed into mid January and it's non-negotiable. It's easy to bury your head in a pillow, click your heels together, and blindly state it's too early....until you actually look at the numbers, good forbid if you can bring yourself to be objective,

Bam has a good pull you away from the cliff update on YouTube this morning

Picked up 2 tenths of an inch of snow overnight via a lake effect streamer.

You need to take a look at climo with single-digits snowfall into January....