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Okay correction. It has just been brought to my attention that 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent of the forcing in Texas will be 400 miles north of Buda. We Always Get Missed. Therefore I will see five minutes of drizzle. One thing I really CRAVE for, is a super El Nino with rain amounts about 99 decillion percent above normal for Fall and Winter 2026-2027. I want so damn much rain in south central Texas that the river that runs thru Austin ends up putting Buda under 150 feet of water. I have always craved for a severe flood. I have been around for 62 years and I have NEVER been in a real flood. I want a 9 billion, 999 decillion milennial El Nino in Texas this autumn. We need 70 percent of the people out of here anyway. I want severe floods like in The Bible. Too damn BAD I missed that. FUCK SNOW. I want Waterworld-like rain amounts.

He may have reason looking long term. I'm thinking a 4569 character multi paragraph mind explosion post....always welcomed of course. 53F

Fire warnings are going to go up soon, due to the dry conditions, if we don't get some rain soon.

Severe season didn’t even wave as she went by .

Looks like a pretty special week coming up in NYC.. High temperatures from Tuesday into Thursday will average 15 to 25 degrees above normal. NBM box and whisker plots are generally around the 25th percentile for the max temperature forecast. The median (50th percentile), is right skewed, toward the warmer side of the guidance. The experimental NBM 5.0 is also a couple of degrees warmer than the operational. The warmer scenario seems plausible, and even has metro NE NJ Wednesday and Thursday around 90. This would be close to 30 degrees above normal and record breaking for a few of the climate sites (see climate section below). The records going into this timeframe are quite high, getting into the heat wave of 2002. Several climate sites from April 16-18, 2002, reached 90 or higher for 3 consecutive days. Don`t see thathappening at this time. Additionally, there is the potential for an even longer period of days with record high minimum temperatures. CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures that could be reached: April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024

This is likely the biggest western US trough ever experienced since records began! The same incredible Pacific trough that is bringing catastrophic snows to California ski resorts for the next three days, is the very same brobdingnagian trough that is bringing badly needed rains to the severely desertified regions of south central Texas tonight through Wednesday! There is a brobdingnagian blob of rain in W TX heading eastbound to Austin and will hammer most of central and eastern Texas.

There was an April in the early 90s, I think 91 where we had 90s at the beginning of April. I had just bought a bass boat and was thrilled to be able to take it out so early in the year.

For the NNE thread… We’ve had steady snow cover at 1500ft since mid-November. Snow depth reached 45” max a couple times, and spent over 3 months above 24”. This morning it was down to 3” and I expect it will be gone by Monday. Still 53” at 3,000ft and 61” at 3,700ft.

country roads, take me home

If you're in the mood the nerdout, I’ve been drifting into the "ghost math" of how we actually capture the sky. It turns out our rain gauges are essentially professional liars, especially when the wind is busy whisking our snow away or the radar beams are overshooting the action entirely. I’ve pulled together a little guide on the invisible physics behind it all, from the way a breeze "deflects" a snowflake right past the collector to why our local airport totals might be missing a good 15% of the real story. It’s dive into fluid dynamics and PA weather quirks, perfect for anyone who wants to see the logic that turns raw data into the actual ground truth. https://jns182wx.github.io/Gauge_Bias_Correction/ I have a couple of calculators for anyone to try figure out their own biases Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Remember when we used to bitch about a cold wet April. I’d take one of them bad boys about now. Lol

Im anti hype. El nino coming nearly for sure. But to predict super so far out....totally skeptical.

It’s not a blocking signal. Weak signal at all actually but enjoy the delusion.

@nw baltimore wx How's the DFH event going?

Yep next week

Dead on 70.0 for the high at my house.

There is a truly Brobdingnagian blob of oceanic moisture inbound to the Cordillera. A goodly yuge chunk of the Pacific is inbound to dump world-ending amounts of heavy snow tonight! It's gonnabe a world of hurt out there as 2-4 inch per hour snow rates overtake all the Sierran ski resorts tonight. Stay tuned, I will keep y'all updated! Palisades Tahoe is already getting demolished! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams Alpine Tahoe is getting hammered, too! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams#tab=alpine

normally I am anti hype when it comes to these things but this year's nino looks like the real deal https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/2041789633940615498

Enjoy the sweat, it’s the only sweat you got.

62 over a forecast high of 57. It got nice late, but this morning was another story. Drove to East Stroudsburg to see my grandson's baseball game. I lasted 2 innings. The cold, in your face wind, was just too much to take.

68 for the high today, forecast high was for 62.

Popped a 63. Nice evening to grill on the patio

haven’t seen a cloud all day, remarkable air mass. wind died down and it’s perfect outside

Pretty incredible stretch of temperatures coming up for Mid-April. We have had warmer, and similar length stretches of warmer temps. But having 70s and humid for at least 5 days straight is impressive, as usually it's dry when we get warm for that long this time of year, ala 2023. Going to be stacking up the rain totals as well, especially if areas have multiple rounds of T-storms. Could be a significant flooding issue in the UP and basins coming off of that area and the North Shore where there is still a significant snowpack. GRB has noted the possibility of the Menominee River reaching moderate or major flood stage later in the week. That plus the multiple severe days is going to make it a very busy week for the region.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the 50s. Afterward, much warmer weather will develop on Monday. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. No rain is likely through at least next Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -27.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.933 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.