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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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HRRR's still a bit out of range. 3K NAM is wild
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https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2026/05/07/utahs-data-center-could-create/
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HRRR continues to be pretty wimpy most runs, the RRFS has consistently shown a stronger signal and the FV3 GFS and NAM do too
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Lol I just looked at the GFS. Ok, maybe the STJ has opened for business. Literally the entire SE area that is currently classified under drought is covered with red heavy precip amounts the next 10days. Crazy how basically it's just an inversion of the US drought monitor map.
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Finished up some yard work from last night and it is miserable outside....
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I hear you brother. I think many of us still have flashbacks. I was down by the lake last night and couldn’t help but think how ironic it was to see it at record low levels. It immediately reminded me of that day and what I saw on the opposite end of the spectrum.
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Come on guys. Where have you all been for the last two years? I wouldn't write this whole upcoming weekend off as a washout. Maybe this time they won't be wrong and the forecast will verify...but I wouldn't bet on it.
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i would think there’s a svr watch later today
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clouds
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We did get a 2inch precip storm in January. Just nothing before or after. Which seems to be our pattern now
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May 20 1892: Very late season snowfall hits central Minnesota. Maple Plain receives 4 inches of snow, with 3 inches falling in Minneapolis. This is the latest significant snow on record for the Twin Cities, and one of the latest widespread snowfalls in Minnesota. 1876: A tornado touches down near Ft. Ripley. For Wednesday, May 20, 2026 1894 - A record late snow of two to eight inches whitened parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Lexington KY received six inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1916 - A tornado struck the town of Codell, KS. A tornado struck the town on the same day the following year (1917), and a third tornado hit Cordell on May 20th in 1918. (The Weather Channel) Note: What are the odds of this happening?! 1957 - A tornado touched down to the southwest of Kansas City and traveled a distance of seventy-one miles cutting a swath of near total destruction through the southeastern suburbs of Ruskin Heights and Hickman Mills. The tornado claimed the lives of forty-five persons, and left hundreds homeless. It was the worst weather disaster of record for Kansas City. About all that remained of one house was a small table and a fish bowl atop, with the fish still swimming about inside the bowl, rather unconcerned. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) 1987 - Thunderstorms in southern Texas produced grapefruit size hail, near the town of Dilley ("by dilly"), and produced wind gusts to 73 mph at Lake Amistad. The large hail broke windows, killed small animals, and damaged watermelon. Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather from Indiana to the Dakotas. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Denver IA, and wind gusts to 80 mph in southern Henry County IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms in the south central U.S. produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Omaha, NE, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Midland and Dallas, TX. Temperatures in California soared into the 90s and above 100 degrees. San Jose CA reported a record high of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Pre-dawn thunderstorms produced large hail in eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Later in the morning thunderstorms in North Carolina produced dime size hail at Hanging Dog. Thunderstorms also produced severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains Region later that day and night, with baseball size hail reported around Lawn, Novice and Eola TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across the southeastern quarter of the nation through the day and night. Severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured two persons at Algoma, MS, and another which injured nine persons at Rogersville, MO. There were 119 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Houston MO and damaging winds which killed one person at Toccoa GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
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two winters from now…
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Lows ranging from the mid 20's to mid 30's this morning. Cool day in the 50's here in town. Basically 50's & 60's until Memorial day when a strong warm front starts to affect the W sub. Then summer wx arrives
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Also where was all of this in January.
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Another early May day with not a cloud in the sky. Will be interesting this movement into a cloudy/cool pattern for the next 4 days.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
roardog replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
This is what I’ve been saying but apparently twitter doesn’t agree according to snowman’s posts. - Today
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For your area, yeah, but looking ok my way, except for Sat as of now. Saturday Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Northeast wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Calm wind. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Calm wind. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Calm wind. Memorial Day Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.
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Yeah... We do have a rainout date scheduled for Monday... If no pool play, I think they seed you by when you signed up.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
SnowenOutThere replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Even yesterday could feel the ability for the DCape to work its magic from the gust front winds alongside gusty winds with a downpour. Just need some taller cells to full take advantage of it.- 354 replies
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I’m still rain weary after Helene. Hate that I used to enjoy the rain so much but ever since the storm I’ve just always hated downpours and have to keep an eye on the yard, the way the water is flowing, etc. I’ll definitely take the rain but just in calm, non-intense varieties.
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
The Iceman replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
I didn't get much either, but it did at least wet the ground... I didn't even bother to check the gauge, probably .05" tops. -
I'm at the hospital with my mom in the Detroit area (Novi). Was here yesterday and a crazy intense storm blew through. It was like derecho winds. You know those large public trash bins that are made of cement and this pea gravel looking stuff always in public locations? I was watching out the window of her room during the storm and the wind blew one of them right over! They must weigh several hundred pounds. Was about 90F here yesterday. 53F today when I got to the hospital this morning, much colder.
