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Please please don't say this (see my username)

Nice southern slider on models

It's not that simple. Like not at all, in any way. Yes, the climate is warming from human emissions, but that doesn't translate to "baroclinic boundary moves X miles north". And there's no way to even calculate a half-way semi reliable change in temperature because of various knock on effects related to clouds and patterns of heat distribution . It's not a linear equation like that.

I actually like the look of the GEM...I think it's too warm. Looks like EURO, just warmer.

GEM is Scooter's fear....hugger. Elevation event. It was OTS at 12z.

Very true! It was encouraging also here in Central, Va on Friday, we actually scored with a clipper. Had 3.5" in SW Chesterfield County in less than 4 hours! Can't remember last time a clipper did some damage.

This is getting surreal.

I agree with this. The past 10 years or so have been historically bad and not the sole fault of climate change. Frankly, if it was just climate change alone causing such a dramatic shift then I wouldn’t be in college right now because clearly our planet is mega fucked so id live up the life I had left. Thankfully, it’s not our baseline and instead just bad patterns and climate change together. We will get good winters again but they’re just harder to come by. As a last note I think this storm is a great read like you said but only if we get a “perfect track”. I mean if we get a primary in the Ohio valley or west it’s raining even if it was 1700.

It’s twue….oh it’s twue…

OMG. I’m actually not shocked that you would use that word. You’re a vile, vulgar hate filled human.

Next year will be extremely telling. If a decent central or even west-based El Nino develops, can you guys score with marginal homegrown cold, without crazy EPO blocking? Are we starting an exit out of the dreg -PDO minimum? Can we ever have regular bad pattern that isn't a shit the blinds?

Im not denying it's different. It is-but this winter and really last winter, has actually been...well... winter. And we had gone several years with basically no winter. I agree with what PSU has been saying. This will be a good test to see how it works out... Pacific is crap, but other parts are decent. Also, SEEMS like models are over the place more now than 5 years ago. But I've done no official evaluation. I'd have to quit my day job for that haha.

The lady doth protest too much. Only someone who thinks kike that could see the kind of hate you're currently vomiting. Don't bother replying, you're flying into my ignore list at warp speed. See you at Nuremberg.

Welcome to the hobby! You should’ve been here for the legendary PSU runs of 2024 and 2023 and those perfect track storms. Just diabolical low in the perfect position and 35 degrees plus heavy rain. Something I’ve found to help is I go on hikes into the mountains during those perfect track storms cause they’re still cold enough (for now lmao) to get accumulation. Though it’s sad because I’m only another 1000 ft up or so (which moist adiabatic lapse rate is 4ish degrees) and that would be our base climo a hundred years ago

Back down to 5; winds are howling again tonight.

Lolll, I don’t even know what the FUCK you’re talking about. But i know you’re a vile piece of shit just for using that term. I guess your true colors are coming out. I hope you’re happy now that your pathetic ass wrote that. I hope you have a horrible night and a terrible week. Oh and you have definitely lived up to Delaware’s reputation.

Yeah dude I’m not here to say it won’t get cold or snows gonna disappear forever. Climate change takes time. Im here to say on balance we lose stuff on the margins. Additionally, that gfs run won’t be true (and god knows it won’t be right till the day after the event) but they still show a “real” possibility bound by our physical laws. That storm happens in some possible world; though hopefully not our own.

@SnowenOutThere the 0z GFS looks like an April storm

I agree that the setup is flawed. So does PSU. That’s not really our point though. The point is that we need to still snow on flawed setups like this one, if not, then we’re stuck waiting for years to get a good winter. As a note to that yes it’s 12 degrees now but our super cold pattern has been super dry! That’s normal, and that’s okay but shows why we need to be cold enough in our non super cold patterns.

Because we had a god damn perfect epo/pna pattern. Of course it can still get cold if everything is fucking perfect. We’re talking about losing snow along the margins. losing those snows we used to sneak in when the pattern wasn’t good.

Sorry lol

00z keying in on 2/15-2/16 track key QPF robust ICON: GFS: GFS AI AIGFS GGEM

That's just one run of a pretty poor model-at this range I mean. 32° in Cuba last week for the first time ever, and first 8 days of Feb rank top 10 at least all time in this region, for avg cold daily temps.

I hate to interrupt PSU and Chucks ongoing dissertation but the Ukie snows on us at the end of its run. Looks like it would be a snow to rain situation but looked like a thump was happening at hour 168

Learning about this stuff in my atmosphere and weather course this fall really shows how just objective it all is. I remember I had to learn and derive the whole solar forcing equation and calculate the temperate of earth based on the suns output. In the observed temp equation there are three variables. 1. Solar forcing 2. Albedo 3. Greenhouse gas absorption. That’s it. You can do the math and it all checks out. Then everything else falls from there. Storms ride baroclinic boundaries and the polar jet. Both of those shift north in response to our temperature. To emphasize it will snow again we will get a HECS again but gradually our chances slowly run dry until we’re all fighting for scraps over a 50 mile frozen shield on any storm that doesn’t have a great pattern.