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It has room to amplify but it isn't tilting any faster than 12z, probably because of the trailing wave and it might be a little messy itself. But no change to tilt and better heights is still a good change on balance, of course.

Ridge axis by the Rockies a shade west

This should be NW of 12z.

Are you all using 3K or 12k? Should really start using 3K I think.

But for the further north people that might be the most important factor

The low is probably hooking over SE Mass this run.

We're all gonna owe the GFS a beer on Monday, huh?

Once ready can someone post the NAM snowmap . I need the porn.

Still ongoing, friend: While on the subject, I wrote to Don and someone else about how snowfall is determined by the NBM several weeks ago. For clarity, I mentioned that the weights (available here: https://vlab.noaa.gov/documents/6609493/32850490/CONUS_SNOICEACCUM.pdf) temporally vary. On top of time-varying weights, the ensemble members incorporated into the mean are lagged by ~1-2 cycles (depends on modeling system)... To see which models/cycles are included by the NBM at any forecast time, you can use this link: https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard Additionally, it takes ~1 cycle to post-process the NBM. Therefore, the most up-to-date NBM snowfall product will have a lag of ~2-3 cycles. This is where the confusion is imo.

Holy NAM!

but even at 45 it is not negativity tilted...nor was it on the 12Z

I said this in the MA forum but figured I’d send it here too… I believe there is potential for 12"+ for coastal regions from Delaware to Mass, but I am honestly decently concerned about a potential rug pull I-95 N and W with this one. A storm as intense as this is likely to have a more consolidated precipitation shield which slams the coast, but can make it difficult for those bands to pivot farther inland. There is legitimate risk the phase does not occur until north of our latitude unless we see more digging upstream. The inverted trough is a wild card that could make up for it in spots though. Not to mention, surface temperatures are marginal with this one, and we could see a period of white rain cut down on totals. Hoping for the best, but I see clear warning signs and parallels to storms like January 2015, January 2018, January 2022, Boxing Day, etc.

Here it comes.

Light snow to the region at 45

I like a Miller nAm please

It's been coming down pretty good for the last hour or so, after the column finally saturated. Temp is 30F

Poor Randy is on a flight. If only he were here. You have me, though! But that might be a net minus

It would help greatly if we could put some accumulation down between 7 -10am Sunday.

We have a storm watch people up to 55KTS

We can have a general idea prior to the storm, but exactly where will be a nowcast and forecast adjustments would happen accordingly.

Never saw a drop of rain or mix here. Just started as snow at 3:10 PM. 34F

at 42 heights noticeably higher ahead of the S/W at 500 compared to 12z

We were looking at different hours... that 3 hours made a difference

yes it's me feen, a.k.a tonylovesnow. Sorry if i ever offended anyone im a new man and ive changed into a whole new still annoying but a bit more mature. @TriPolyes that was my picture i floated around on twitter. Cause i do believe if we tuck a little more it could realistically mimic Boxing day blizzard at least to a point!