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  2. guinness77
    Looks like rain only NYC/LI.
  3. Brian D
    Early data in for Jan. Another one on the colder side. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.
  4. mitchnick
    Maybe something like this at 366hrs on the GfsAI run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2026020918&fh=366
  5. Weather Will
    The WB 18Z GFS is awful for several reasons. 1. The high is way off the east coast allowing for SE winds 2. The upper level low is tracking too far south and therefore so is the surface low. 3. The surface low is weak. 4. We have marginally cold air at best so without a near perfect alignment of the high, upper level low, and surface low, we get rain or nothing at all. Looking for the more perfect alignment? How about the New Canadian model at 12Z. (Pictures below 10pm Sunday.)
  6. DocATL
    I’d guess Wisconsin and Minnesota.
  7. NorthShoreWx
    How is this evidence of anything? At least the colors are pretty.
  8. NEG NAO
    why don't you message him and tell him what you think
  9. donsutherland1
    That's quite worrisome, especially when it comes to science. Science is truly at the cutting edge of knowledge creation and, if expertise is watered down, it will have an adverse impact on that outcome.
  10. frostfern
    When it’s mild there isn’t enough instability to generate showers so the moisture from the lakes just sits in a uniform layer doing nothing. In a cold lake effect pattern there’s usually sunbreaks between bands and when the wind shifts less onshore. Also, the small bit of Pacific moisture aloft makes it harder for the stratus to evaporate from the top like it can with a bone dry arctic airmass above it. This is my explanation.
  11. HoarfrostHubb
    Naw. Models have been kind of all over SNE. NNE and CNE should do better but I think most of Mass will do ok. Not sure about SW CT.
  12. NEG NAO
    and setting up a FB page and website and promoting yourself as an expert and getting people to pay you for your services is even easier !
  13. psv88
    This is the worst map I have ever seen. Everything about it is wrong. Its probably a map created by AI where the prompter asked for a map showing a warm transition It's the only explanation. There is absolutely no meteorology behind this map
  14. SnowenOutThere
    My favorite weather hiking is arguably the Shenandoah's in a good upslope event. Frankly its otherworldly to ascend into the cloud deck and go from showers to a downpour on the mountainside. While I love my snow hikes rain hikes are even more dynamic. Hoping I get some opportunities for that this spring with temperatures around 60.
  15. Maestrobjwa
    I was just thinking the same: As long as it's not a logbook fail, I'll take that if need be, lol
  16. JustinRP37
    Exactly. Sadly nowadays even a degree doesn’t mean much. It is very hard to “fail” someone out of a degree these days. There is so much “support” to help even the weakest minds through. Failing at the basics while still earning a science degree is very much achievable now.
  17. ForestHillWx
    Work took me down Seaside today; I’ve never seen the Barnegat Bay frozen solid from shore to shore. Manasquan inlet up by Point was open water, but down by the Route 37 bridge it was frozen solid.
  18. SnowenOutThere
    Please God let the HRRR be right it has me nearly reach 70 degrees tomorrow.
  19. Roger Smith
    With the preliminary climate report for today 31/10 the scoring above is now confirmed. CPcantmeasuresnow had the lowest total errors (1 deg) followed by Tony and bkviking (2 deg). CPcantmeasuresnow had a perfect 17/3 going before the final report of 18/3 changed the results by one degree but still finished first in the temperature contest. I will review the snowfall situation at end of tomorrow's data and score the snowfall forecasts separately just for fun. The current standings are also shown in the previous post. Thanks for participating.
  20. T. August
    Snow depth still at 5.5-6.3”
  21. Roger Smith
    Whatever the merits of this map, arctic cold does not arrive in the west from the central Pacific. It builds down from the Yukon.
  22. DavisStraight
    And throw in a Norlun or two.
  23. ravensrule
    You're such a tease.
  24. Brian5671
    RGEM GFS and NAM have 1-2 inches just north of NYC tomorrow night
  25. SnowenOutThere
    Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens.
  26. WxUSAF
    We need like weekly 1” rain events for a couple months and then a juicy thunderstorm season. Drought just won’t quit us…
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