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Fixed your post

Congratulations .

Upstate is roasted.

IIRC, the DFW to NC connection didn’t hold last time all of us from TX to the SE were supposed to get wintery precipitation. Once again, I will happily report in with what is happening 10 miles N of DFW airport.

Massive hit !

The foothills ain't seeing sheet!

Will point out no matter what youre not getting slop. You'll be getting Ice.

It is trying real hard for something special.

Yall are cooked gang.

I am half expecting next 24-48 hour model trends to be towards greater coastal development, lower central pressures for the coastal low and a consequent beefing up of QPF over NJ, PA, NY and s NE. There is a fairly robust energy peak around Jan 26-27 so the slower this evolution develops, the better the results. Current record snowfalls on 25th and 26th of January are 10.0" from 1905 (an 11.0" 2d event) and 12.3" from 2011 (a 20" 3d event). There could be a run on one or even both of those depending on timing. It is very difficult to break record low mins in this urban heat island situation but easier to match record low max, those are in the 12-14 F range around Saturday-Sunday. I think Saturday may be very cold all day but it has less chance because the date record (6F 1882) is also the monthly lowest value for low max. Oddly, December and February both have lower values (2F and 4F). There has not been a sub-10F max at NYC since Jan 21, 1985 set a record of 9F. There was a 10F reading in Jan 1994, and 13F in Jan 2018.

Whatever happens will happen. We have no co trol over it. It's like watching your favorite sports teams. Sometimes they win in a blow out, sometimes they get blown out. Sometimes they win a close one, sometimes they lose at the buzzer.

Weenies jumping all evening.

The 18z Euro would be a really bad ice storm for most...beore changing to rain on the back end. In my few experiences w/ ice in the eastern valley....if that cold gets trapped, it doesn't get scoured. I think the depth of the cold air keeps it frozen. It's just what version of frozen does the forum get that is the question for me.

Looks like there is an aircraft doing dropsondes right now, didn't take off until 22z

Triple phasers happen about once every 10 to 15 years. Let's hope this one isn't it.

Looks like he will. Euro is King. Oh wait. GEM is king.

This

Yeah, that was my guy...hope nothing happened

No one likes a lot of freezing rain. Give me .005to .10 of an inch after a big snowfall, It looks fantastic. Anything more just destructive and no need for it.

I'm honestly not sure how much further this can come north from a phase alone (famous last words). The Euro is the highest latitude it can reach bar confluence retreat (which is a possibility). Realistically I think we see a slightly messier phase so we don't need to worry that much even if the confluence is a bit overdone.

there will be zero mixing anywhere

Gotta like that look. Just need to keep it or improve on it. If we can keep these 18Z trends going at 00Z and then 12Z tomorrow that would be great....at least on the EURO, GGEM and UKMET. If the GFS comes to the party and stays so much the better.

I really don’t want to see Bam take a victory lap.

I taught him better