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Bug bump north on the NAM but not enough for here.. we will be lucky if we see a flake

I’m following @Terpeast rule. I’m giving it till tonight

Wildfires and tornadoes in February! What a time to be alive!

That’s cool still a far cry from 70+ as was stated in the beginning of Feb…

They’re already tempered. As mild as it is it may not snow

February 18 1979: This is one of the rare times that Lake Superior completely freezes over. For Wednesday, February 18, 2026 1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum) 1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum) 1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Sorry we don’t have 8-1 maps

Imo, its a brief pna spike. Always about timing, but this time its a little bit more tricky

Warm temps heading in. Snow during the day. I dont think ratios will be anywhere near 10:1. .

Seems fitting but this is like the winter Olympics final game, models version USA, versus, Europe, versus the other countries. Who will be crowned gold? Stay tuned

Even if Weathernext2 is also off by one color, it would still be 6” at DC. I’d think 6” would be bordering on a “major” hit there considering that I saw a stat that only 0.7 5”+ snowstorms hit DC each year at this link meaning many years don’t even get a 5” storm: https://downloads.regulations.gov/FWS-R5-ES-2016-0030-0073/attachment_18.pdf#:~:text=For four days a year on average%2C,events that occur about twice a decade.

Really warming up in the eastern-subsurface. Probably going to start to surface in the next month or so. SOI isn't on board yet, but it has been lagging the last 3 years: 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.

This doesn’t look that good here. Wagons north

a man's got to know his limitations....

Idk if it was posted here or on Facebook but the snow depth forecast i think from euro was way off.. showed long island having no snow cover left by o think yesterday. Meanwhile I still have over 4 or 5 inches on ground

The writing was on the wall early in the season. Like I said in December and several times since, you really want to be in the bullseye with the first threat. To the naysayers, NO...., it doesn't always work out that way (think 2007 clipper that put us ahead of Boston only to be our biggest event that winter while ENE did well.) But it's reliable enough to assume the area that does bullseye first will end the season with the highest snowfall anomalies as the pattern will tend repeat through the season imho.

The euro op was really close to a significant event for all of us and it was a lot flatter vs 6z rgem/ukie. Just as I had a bad feeling about 00z runs, I have a sneaking suspicion we’re about to have a fun 12z suite

I’d be surprised if anyone saw more than C-1”. Except maybe highest terrain of southern Berkshires and NW CT, and even that might be a stretch.

Maybe an inch? Depends on moisture. If you got 2 I would not be shocked, but I would temper expectations.

Need something to go right

What do you think for this area tonight? Wonder what @ORH_wxmanthinks too. He knows this area nuances

My wife was just mentioning them.

Never bet against the wedge.

Let's go Canadian on this. Would be a decent hit right to the coast

Euro finally catching onto some flow snow. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk