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Our best chance for something bigger later this month is hoping for any PV lobes to phase in with the northern stream. Just picking a random time frame just to illustrate but the PV is forecast to become quite large which will benefit us in the since that every now and then we'll get pieces of PV lobes tossed our way. But I feel like overall we need to weaken the PV and that may help relax the flow a bit. But there is also extremely uncertainty with how the AO evolves the second half of this month

The issue is that without an established Arctic airmass it simply got too warm before start time. This wasn’t a situation where it started at 40 degrees and the wet bulb was 30. It was 40 with a wet bulb of 39. Upper and mid levels are fine, hence all the snow mix, but it is taking too much time to cool lower levels. Cold chasing moisture fail mode #1. Accumulation south of border looks minimal at best. Even Richmond struggled just north of main band though they are snowing good now. My cousin there said they have less than 1” even though it’s been snowing since 8 am. Only areas getting heaviest rates are getting big totals and there is a quick drop off on either side. Central and eastern NC could see some accumulation with some coastal development like the HRRR has been throwing out but this main area of precip isn’t going to produce much for anyone not in Virginia

Boone is getting good rates now on the cams

Awesome!! It just started raining a short time ago. Very light. Temperature down to 41. After 3:00 your streets are going to cave. It's going to be a nasty Rush Hour for Hampton roads. Glad I'm home.

but what about the 10 foot wide area of destructive interference over the maritime continent?

Should we try and trade one in for the other? That always works out!

AIFS ens have both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm.

Euro too. Looks like they both want to really dig the s/w with that clipper. Definitely something to watch.

make that wind 7 - 15

They heaviest banding has been south of the warning where I am

It is hard to call an amount here. I am at Wylliesbirg and will start heading home soon.on the coldest surfaces there is 2-3 inches.

Looking at cams, I don't think anyone in Virginia met Winter Storm Warning criteria.

2 inches at 1:30, 23.5 degrees with a northeasterly breeze at 7 - 5.

I think for North Carolina, the problem is the snow rates have been far too light to acclimate outside of the mountains. It has been at or near freezing for most of the duration of the snow, but daytime snow is just not sticking when it’s this light

Well considering Christmas Eve is 16 days away. I'm sure those models will change

Basically on 12z modeling, I am seeing a continuation of the current pattern w/ a chance of strong amplification around or just after mid-month. Which side of that amplification we end up? That is certainly up for debate, but I "think" the MJO probably places us in the trough. There is a rapid progression of short waves along the northern branch. For now, most of them are just a bit too far north. That could easily change. Each one will have to be watched. There are a lot of them. Definitely northern stream driven w/ some minor interaction w/ the Gulf.

Rooting for you all from Chicago. Plenty here to share, we've had the snowiest start to winter since 1978 and even more on the way. Happy to see my first winter here going well.

Its not a couple tenths of an inch its over half inch

Thank you Paul.

They are too you can see the EPO ridge in Alaska high heights where before there was low heights. This could a trend GEFS 12z shows this.

Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov. My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo

Snow is still falling at a decent rate. It never stuck to the roads or sidewalk in my neighborhood. 34.9* now.

It will be all snow very soon. Some snow on street here now.

Switched over to Snow/Rain mix in Portmouth. 35 degrees

There won’t be two events. They always morph into one . I’d bet this turns into a Saturday night into Sunday morning deal .. splits the difference between models