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One of these years is gonna come a truly historic day when everyone in this sub is gonna find themselves standing in intense snow rates with about 30 inches of snow on the ground as strong northeasterlies blow huge aggregates right past the streetlights and the TROWAL refuses to even move an inch as an historic benchmark low gets fully stacked up and captured and everything comes to a halt in record 15,000 year trowal snows from Penhook to Philly, from West Virginia right down to the Eastern Shore! And many of you are forced to crawl out second and even third story windows just to get out of the damn house because of unbelievable drifting that will overtop many structures.

The big Miller A storm track east of the APPS has gone dormant for 20 years now. So JB is in one of the worst snow holes around Central PA. State College requires that particular storm track to reach near to above average snowfall. Just like our area needs benchmark snowstorms to reach average to above average snowfall. Miller A Cutters west of the APPS and weak Miller Bs that dryslot Central PA aren’t good for our area or Central PA. At least we finally got a solid benchmark season here after so many below average seasons since 2018-2019. But our issue has been the dominance of all or nothing seasons since 93-94 where we finish well above average or well below snowfall. The mid range 18-29 season which dominated from the 1960s to early 1990s has become a rarity. So our snowfall seasons either hit some nice home runs or we strike out. The risk in a warming climate is that the strikeouts start to become more common than the home runs. But it’s still nice to know that we can get a great bounce back year like this one from time to time.

9 years ago today. The Pi-Day blizzard. It was forecast to track near or just inside the BM a couple days out but it was one of those storms that kept inching toward the coast until it's eventual hugger track right over E LI and GON. Blizzard warnings were up for the NYC area into southern New England which were all eventually cancelled and areas further inland were upgraded to blizz warnings. Forecast snow amounts were historic levels around 18-24"+ for coastal areas but a quick changeover to IP cut amounts way back to less than 10 for most areas along 95. Historic level snowfall occurred well inland in upstate new york around the Catskills and capital region with 30-50" in some spots. This was some of the heaviest snow and snow/sleet I've ever seen in the early morning hours of the 14th with rates around 4" per hour. Picked up 9.5" here in just a few hours. I wil eventually get to remapping this and including a Lower Northeast view. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/mar-14-2017

THIS.

28.9° SHSN 1.8” new

Crazy winds yesterday. Lots of trees and power lines down. I think Burke had a peak wind gust of 85mph.

SPC put out an enhanced risk towards the Suquehanna River area. Would not be surprised to see that expanded north and east in later outlooks.

3.0" new @ PWM.

Thought I'd see a few more folks up in here given the nature of heavy snow in 24-30 hours in some portions of your overall region. Two feet of snow alongside strong winds, whiteouts and considerable drifting is nothing to sneeze at, lol. Them conditions are kinda like some you might find in the high Sierra. Places like Palisades Tahoe and Mammoth Mountain Resort.

Looks about right at this point.

A tad over 2” at 1500ft. 22” Depth.

Kids, never drink and model watch it can be hazardous.

The NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed south central Pennsylvania in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for Monday March 16th. Pennsylvania averages only 5 to 6 Enhanced Risk days per year. Damaging straight line wind gusts are the primary threat, but a few tornadoes are possible as well.

WB 6Z GFS; wet and white run.......

historic storm for the UP, i was looking at some of the warnings there, 1-3 feet..20-32". Impressive, considering they just a 6-12 dump.

The other problem for nuclear has been CO2 accounting. We'd have much more nuclear with stronger climate policy. I am bullish on nuclear long term reflecting ongoing technical progress; but, it isn't going to contribute much in the US in the next decade or two. We should be on a build everything path, with a cost penalty for CO2.

Wind is already cranking outside.

CMC next weekend

2-3” here and getting a very heavy snow shower now with perfect growth

Yes the grid is a big problem in the US. Link below is a long thread on the US vs China grid. We aren't competitive, as an illustration per chart below, China gets 25x the payback from grid investment dollars. The thread doesn't mention batteries, which can mitigate grid investment somewhat. The developing global south, with abundant local solar, may avoid heavy grid investment. https://x.com/NiyerEnergy/status/2032265048723259781

Man, we do get some blocking, but some of the models are like totally Stein with it because it’s strong.The

Looks like we had a light dangerous dusting last night.

Boredom.

Yes fossil fuels are energy dense, but that is only one aspect of the comparison and its not very important; i.e. renewables are cheaper despite lower energy density. The energy density of solar is higher than the energy density of civilization; i.e., roofs, parking lots, etc could power our cities. Your chart of India and China reflects the past not the present, yes CO2 use grew rapidly as both countries industrialized. However, coal use has peaked in both countries. Oil has peaked in China; and, China's CO emissions decreased last year. India is only beginning to use EVs; but, EV use is ramping.

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS...VIRGINIA...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Discussion... A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong wind fields aloft. A surface low move from Lower MI into southern Quebec, with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern PA, VA, and NC by around 21Z. Ahead of this trough/front, southerly winds will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast PA. Storms will likely be ongoing along the length of the cold front, roughly from OH to the FL Panhandle Monday morning. Given the uncapped air mass over the Carolinas, a few storms, possibly supercells, may develop relatively early in the day as well, with tornado potential. The greatest threat however will be during the afternoon as cold front nears, and pressure falls are maximized along with daytime heating. A few supercells ahead of the line will be possible, along with embedded circulations and/significant damaging winds within the squall line. There are model differences regarding the speed/position of the cold front, as well as the degree of instability. Regardless, damaging winds over a large area appear likely, along with at least a few tornadoes. Depending on the degree of destabilization, a strong tornado or two may occur especially over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia during the late afternoon. Many models forecast 300-500 m2/s2 SRH, along with pockets of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which is clearly favorable for tornadic supercells.