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There are 48 hours of model runs before the first flake, pellet or drop falls. We are not even at the two minute warning, still plenty of time for this to trend better / worse and undoubtedly it will.

This is the HRRR, second wave hasn't even happened yet.

Jimbo, I think your surgery might be delayed

WRAL call on ice amounts:

Like we get hurricanes here anymore. Those are more rare than snowstorms. I mean sleet storms

amazing how most of you people who sit in a dark room and analyze things think your more superior and intelligent than trained and paid scientists.

What do y'all think the potential for power outages will be? Less than 50%? Not so much during the storm but possibly either tomorrow night or Monday. Thinking about getting some propane tanks filled so I can have a source of heat (fireplace) if needed. Not so worried about seeing if the generator will work as I'll just put stuff in a cooler outside to stay cold/frozen.

Well NAM time. I guess we kinda start looking to it for thermal clues.

That’s the best part about being unreliable.

I worked for a company based in London for a few years, and they would always say things like "we'll meet at 2pm GMT" etc - and I had to remind them that in the summer, they are BST, which is GMT+1. It sounds pedantic, but since EDT is GMT-4, but London is generally always 5 hrs ahead (except for the weird misalignment of the daylight savings start/end), the meeting time would not be clear.

My sister near Nashville is going get F up big time with ice

Just saw the 15z SREF mean 500mb flattened a bit compared to 9z... just probing for good news. They were super amped to start but any shift in a better direction is welcomed.

The NAM is comical... there are already decent changes only 6 hours in

Yeah, based on everything, that map is super whacked.

Alright, fair enough!

SE Sussex: Winter storm Saturday night thru early Monday. Snow of at least 12 inches, then mixing with sleet; more defined amounts/timing follow Friday.NW Sussex: Winter storm Sat night thru early Monday. Snow at least 16 inches and best chance to remain all snow; more defined amounts/timing follow Friday

DT is so awful. He busts every winter forecast.

The masses are now expecting the big hyped 12-16 inch event if that fails to happen they will just shake their head at the forecasters

Fairfax County has end of the quarter teacher workdays on Thurs/Fri and an early dismissal on Wednesday. There's basically no chance my kid will be in school next week.

What’s the plan for the GFS? It’s on an island usually. Evergreen ‘why bother’ do we look at it?

3-6" for half of DC? I'd be surprised if we don't clear 6". I'd bump that 6-8" line SE.

hurricanes!

Yeah i know. the map was still showing the old total map. Thought he was on the NWS slack page to

I honestly don't see anything that bad about it. It's not outlandish. I think people are tired and just ready to give off the ride and kinda give up

Mt. Holly and Co are betting on high ratios to start for higher totals. If ratios do hit 15:1 then maybe.