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GEFS with quite the increase in precip as well. I still think thermals would be an issue, especially that time of day.

Workable for sure at this time period. Flow as currently modeled is relatively flat with not much ridging in PNA. Euro seems a bit more amplified with this. Something to watch. Until than not much going on. Catch some FROPA and and maybe a Clippah.

I really thought there would be zero support for the 18z GFS solution w/ ensemble members, but there are a decent number which have similarity. There almost none of those at 12z.

The new HRRR and RAP on Pivotal are showing 0.1 and 0.2 of snow respectively and no freezing rain in the metro overnight. HRDPS isn’t showing anything and neither is the RRFS

GFS has something on 12th, near benchmark. Weak, but workable 7 days out

Light snow and snizzle currently. I was out taking pictures of the snowy Christmas decorations and noticed it was lightly snowing.

So now we’re not allowed to track and enjoy snow events ?

Top 3 coldest December 5th in 133 years.....even with the rumoured "warming climate" this of course still happens

Never reached freezing today, topped out at 28F. Winter of yore.

The advertised pattern is conducive for something next week- we need some luck as always.

a actual blizzard wind gusts on long island were over 60 mph even had thundersnow..

Snowing here..

The 18z ICON hints at it w/ a second wave of precip. I would be really surprised to see it deepen this close to the event, but the dynamics are there. Just a timing thing I guess. All I can see as a difference is a weak area of lp forming along the coast. I am not sure if a lee side forms or an inverted trough forms. I am terrible at seeing inverted troughs.

totals in sig but going for 1.5" in DC/N Arlington both. If I see a better spotter report near me I'll take it but seems plausible for NArl and I measured that in D.C.

But it's much closer to the euro solution for D6-7...

Thank you! It well worth chasing this nice advisory event!

Yeah, this one may have Legs for us providing the Jet doesn't shift north any. Incidentally, our first major Snowfall of '95-96 was on the 10th. I measured 7" in Pennington gap.

The 18z GFS apparently popped a weak coastal and backed the flow. Definitely want to look at ensemble members regarding that. For a progressive model to form a weak coastal....that might be something to watch. It would normally be the first OTS.

Yeah this is only a few days out. That said some minor tweaks could get our region in on the northern edge(again). Probably gotta root for more amplification earlier.

Already growing tired of this

1.1” snow today imby/Columbia Hi 28 Lo 26 thru 5pm.

The 13th is Wreaths Across America. Would be an amazing event in the snow.

You know, the 12z AIFS had a similar solution to the 18z GFS. I just didn't look that closely. It just wasn't as much snow, but still 1-3" of it.

I know a guy in Canada who can handle the energy in the maritimes. Gonna make some calls and we’ll check in again at 00z.