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6.5" in Lindenhurst, ~12:45 PM

3" works as well (95% success rate) but yeah gonna need to see just a dusting more before the park officially gets 3". Would really not take much at this point lol

If I raise it, I will do so near the end of December.

7.1" on the season in Fleetwood now, about 3 weeks ahead of normal

Agree-another 4" inches last night. Brief warm-up midweek and then we see what happens with the cold just North of us. 19" so far this year with three payments to the plow truck!

Easily. And today Lamar looks more like LAMAR

I'm going go with 4 inches storm was wetter and sloppier then expected. Epic paste job versus the fluffy.

Wow! Has it really been that long??? Crazy!

Snow showers passing through make it feel like deep winter

Something I've been working on regarding the past 5 winters On the FWL partial-regression plot, both axes are residuals after removing Tmax anomaly (so “warm vs cold days” isn’t driving the picture anymore). X-axis (Opportunity residual): how much more/less precipitation fell on cold + marginal days than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly. Y-axis (Snow residual): how much more/less snowfall you got than you’d expect given that month’s Tmax anomaly. So the four quadrants are: Quadrant I: +X, +Y Storms timed cold, and snow overperformed. Precip showed up in the cold/marginal window and turned into snow efficiently. Think: clean cold-air setups, good snow ratios, minimal mixing. Quadrant II: −X, +Y Not much cold-timed precip, but snow still overperformed. This is “few chances, big payoff” month: one or two big events, banding, lake enhancement, or unusually high snow-to-liquid ratios made snow punch above its weight. Quadrant III: −X, −Y Storms missed the cold window, and snow underperformed. Classic fail mode: precip skewed warm (rain/mix), or it was just dry when it was cold. Quadrant IV: +X, −Y You had “opportunity,” but snow still underperformed. This is the interesting one: precip landed on days whose daily average looked cold enough, yet accumulation didn’t happen. Common culprits: warm layer aloft (sleet/freezing rain/rain even if surface avg looks cold), warm ground/roads (especially early season), heavy precip falling during the warmest hours, wet/compact snow measuring low. How to read distance from the origin Far right: storms favored cold/marginal timing a lot. Far left: storms favored warm timing a lot. Far up: snow efficiency/event structure boosted totals. Far down: mixing/ground warmth/timing within the day suppressed totals. What happened each winter (Dec–Mar totals) Winter 2021 (snow anomaly +7.5") Precip anomaly: +0.27" (near normal) Cold precip fraction: 0.34 Timing shift: +2.00" (precip aligned with actual-cold days more than the climo window) Translation: good storm alignment with cold snaps. Winter 2022 (snow anomaly −12.2") Precip anomaly: −3.16" (dry hurt you) Cold days were actually higher than the climo window (43 vs 38), but… Cold precip fraction: 0.18 Timing shift: −1.96" (precip skewed warm relative to climo-cold calendar days) Translation: cold existed, but storms arrived when it was too warm, plus it was drier overall. Winter 2023 (snow anomaly −22.6") Precip anomaly: −2.17" Cold precip fraction: 0.03 (basically none) Timing shift: −2.20" Translation: storms mostly missed the freezing window entirely. This is the clearest “bad timing” winter. Winter 2024 (snow anomaly −9.8") Precip anomaly: +4.55" (very wet) Cold precip fraction: 0.09 Timing shift: −4.22" (largest warm-skew) Translation: a rain winter. Tons of water, almost all delivered on warm days. Winter 2025 (snow anomaly −13.1") Precip anomaly: −3.85" (very dry) Cold days were much higher than climo (53 vs 38) Timing shift: +0.18" (near zero) Translation: timing wasn’t the main villain. You had cold, but not enough moisture. Biggest positive snow months: Feb 2021: +10.3" snow anomaly with +1.75" precip anomaly and 1.70" precip on observed-cold days. Dec 2020 (Winter 2021’s Dec): +7.3" snow anomaly with decent cold-precip alignment Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

12/5 0.2” 12/13 2.8” Total: 3.0”

yeah - that's pretty solid coverage.

I believe 4” is the proper mark for December La Niña . We still have another half of the month to go but either way doesn’t look like there’s anything on the horizon

As long as Canada stays at or BN, unlike many recent years, the east coast from Virginia north seems to have a shot, the further north being favored.

That might be the winner for the storm. I haven’t really seen anything today. A few flurries maybe, but honestly it has been hard to tell with blowing snow coming off the roof. .

did you see a group of birders? lol

I just finished shoveling (again) and had 2 squalls move through this afternoon and each one dropped at least an inch. Didn't expect the intensity that they've shown today as there has been multiple instances of true 0 visibility. A really nice overperformer and it's very cold: 5.8 above outside now. In keeping with the winter spirit, I have a big batch of beef and veggie soup on the menu for tonight. I came *this* close to chasing the L. Ontario LES band this weekend and am glad I stayed put.

I think we got got in this area…

I'm less than 3 miles north of pelham bay park and I measured 6" on colder surfaces

They got 2.8 last year and it did not turn out well

1.5-2" Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

There's a decidedly different vibe at Pit2 between July and December.

Strong LLJ Thursday night with the screamer should translate to some big gusts and then again from the west in CAA on Friday . Then we watch Xmas Eve/ Day Storm

yeah I was thinking Boston kinda missed out (NYC nearly did).