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  2. Cyclogenesis going on at the surface under those messy dashes Ah. Thank you!
  3. 12z tomorrow. See y'all then. Have to fix the hydraulic lines on all of my machines. Hope the next storm is powder... screw the weight of ice.
  4. Cyclogenesis going on at the surface under those messy dashes
  5. Recon are sampling the upper-level shortwave off PNW that will kick off our storm. IDK if dropsonde data is being ingested by this model run, but definitely 06z.
  6. Speaking of which somebody tweeted this yesterday...is this true? Lolol
  7. NAM is the first of the 0z suite. I wouldn't just toss it yet.
  8. Ignore that blip. No way it is that accurate with that little nook. Wake would be higher .
  9. Nam 0z is a shut out for the southside! 18z GFS was showing a sharp cut off. We need it to roll up the coast to get that throw back action.
  10. I trust you to make up a scenario before I trust NAM outside of 36 hours
  11. One big issue is that as the NS wave responsible for all this has trended west so has the 50/50 and this is created a more suppressive flow over the top such that the more west track doesn't really matter...the wave is forced well south of us and cuts off then slides east before lifting because of the flow over the top being more suppressive, offsetting the better trajectory of the wave.
  12. The splotchy presentation in Ne GA and the upstate continues to scream downsloping unfortunately.
  13. If the flipped what the 18Z Euro and NAM are showing it might be alarming
  14. Wral will put out their first call totals tomorrow. Expect it to match whatever the EURO ENSEMBLE (their exclusive product) shows. .
  15. It doesn’t have any other model support. Why wouldn’t you toss it?
  16. Raleigh folks punching air if that happened after a week of foot+ runs on everything
  17. Predicting that deform band is like trying to figure out where a thunderstorm is going to be in summer.
  18. The NAM is still great for central NC. More realistic totals for sure. .
  19. A couple nice looking clippers possible the next week!
  20. Nam run wasn’t super great but the end of the 3k was going absolutely nuclear over us with the deform band.
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