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We can certainly do a paste-bomb, but everyone needs to calibrate their ratios appropriately

regardless of whatever the UKMET is painting on the sfc chart for this 150 hour outlook off this 12z run ... storm climatology would place a very intense arc of precipitation roughly White Plains to BOS for this kind of 500 mb

Wagons north failed on this one

Pacific Trough patterns can be great when you have a mechanism to deflect the track southward in the nation's midsection....some of our most active and prolific stretches have happened like this....March 2001, January 2011, March 2018, etc.....Pac just keeps spitting out energy and the mid latitudes funnel it into a favorable slot.

Tomorrows is dogdhit for other then 10 people doing chest bumps and high fiving ea other.

Based on soundings (yes I'm bored and looking at UKIE soundings), its snow from HR126 and later. Such a shallow warm nose and the surface is 33-34 to start

Doesn’t have to be either or. Could be both end, or nope!

Right, which is why I chose the language I did..."first one", "latter two".

Pretty much. Did not really anticipate this collapsing South.

Get the euro onboard then i'll have more interest in the upcoming systems once we get past that 50 mile wide swath event tomorrow.

Classic gefs. Its not far off.

Or the Euro. Although its performance this season has been tepid at best.

I remember for the storm 3 weeks ago, when all the other models were trending north, the GFS had a couple of runs where it was a disjointed mess and stayed mostly south. This was just 4 days out. Obviously that didn’t verify.

Well you’re in this thread, so I assumed you were referring to this storm. We’re both almost certainly out of the Wednesday one, but we still have a shot of a decent one on Friday and then the main event.

GFS has been great this winter

good stuff chuck.

Boston had been in a huge snow drought. I knew it was only a matter of time before they'd cash in. They received more snow January 25/26 than they did in the winters of 2022-23 & 2023-24 combined.

Guaranteed this is gonna happen because I'm traveling and flying home on the 23rd!

I feel better about it with the trend out west.

Coming to a neighborhood near you?

If we end off with a Euro AI solution, this winter gets at least an A- from me. This year could've also had two 12+" snowstorms that just didn't work out, too!

GFS has a pretty good cold shot towards end of month. Let's build up the pack first.

March 58

in fairness this is a setup where I feel a LOT better here than around DC