All Activity

Wind!

Low 50s in northern Maine is record/near-record warmth this time of the year. How much hotter does it need to be to qualify for a torch?

Capital Weather Gang:

In regards to a potential storm later end of month, I need some historian help, how many times has there been some sort of snow storm around new years day/ eve?

I miss Eric Horst. He was a great mentor to me when I was a met student at Millersville over 20 years ago now. Never emotional, just was purely objective and called it like it was. No agenda, no personal feelings. The best way to get back at keyboard warriors is to simply make your forecast and let the verification do the talking .

I’m not sure it’s quite that linear

Actually its flow out of Eastern Canada

Is that the AI (first time seen on Tropical Tidbits) doing the smoothing on GFS?

Those runs were fairly mild though. I’m going to pretend 12z didn’t happen. It’s definitely volatile.

Might have happened then too, but I'm definitely thinking of one from prior to the Feb 6th, 2010 storm.

I teach acquired brain injury clients on regaining basic life skills so we are cut from the same cloth. Nah we always have the memories thrown in conversation usually waiting for the next model run. Thank you for what you do both my parents died with dementia. Toughest times of my life. At any rate modeling isn't terrible at all smoothed out.

Part of me is wondering if there is some scaling back in that regard due to climo. I agree that we certainly may end up below average as a whole, but unless we get some persistent HP to our north...we are going to be caked into a southwesterly surface flow. But the boundary is going to be very close by. It really can go either way

My take is that it isn't over until it's really over. Until mid-late January last year we thought February would be a torch... it ended up being around average and we got that 4-8" snow event. Unfortunately there was some heartbreak with the late-February phantom but it still could be argued that was our best pattern of the whole winter--in the month that we thought would torch.

For Baltimore:

I think (?) he's been getting a lot of negative comments to some of his posts recently. There's been a noticeable difference in his "tone" over the past couple of months. I've really pulled back on following and posting because of it. I'm pretty sure that this post is probably in response to people's comments. Regardless, I haven't been sharing as much from him lately for a variety of reasons. I'm not trying to poke the bear so to speak.

Still amazing how modeling keeps us 4 to 5 degrees BN with above normal heights in the extended. Strong signal for volatility. Peeps living and dying each op run are going to go crazy with a pattern like this. Oscillation city

If that does turn out to be the case that would eat up prime nina climo--February and that SE ridge man (unless something were to change that this season)

Just was talking to a guy from nws on slack, his standpoint is as follows. Hello Michael. Current thinking is that this is a high-end advisory wind event. An isolated gust to warning thresholds is not out of the question, but a widespread warning-level event is not likely in spite of the strong winds aloft. These winds from aloft would have a tougher time reaching the surface vs some strong/high wind events we had a month or so ago. Regarding its speed. It looks like it will cross your area at roughly 1pm give or take an hour.

Definitely annoying. Go forecast in Georgia or something….

torchin

Return

They updated there afd, rather early today, and say there not confident enough to issue high wind Warnings but will be vocal of the potential.

It starts with patience Then we kick the can Which requires more patience Then just maybe we can buckle up

My old stomping grounds are looking at mid 70’s!

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... -- Changed Discussion -- A new moon occurring Friday evening will result in as little as 1 3/4 ft of surge causing minor coastal flooding and 2 1/2 ft causing moderate impacts. A high end gale south-southeast flow ahead of a strong frontal system will bring likelihood for widespread minor coastal flooding during the Friday morning high tide cycle for our Tri-State south facing coasts and even tidally affected rivers (Hackensack and Hudson R), with localized moderate along the southern bays of Queens and W LI. Models are in good agreement with peak winds occurring during the time of high tide for much of the region, with frontal passage occurring after high tide. This has increased the potential for widespread minor coastal flooding across vulnerable coastal locales along NY/NJ harbor, Jamaica Bay, great South Bay, twin forks of LI, and coastal Westchester/CT. Water levels will likely get close to moderate flood levels along Jamaica Bay and western Great South Bay, combined with rain and wave impacts, during morning commute, a coastal flood warning has been issued for exacerbated flood impacts. Otherwise, coastal flood advisories have been expanded into southern CT (wave action of 3-5 ft during high tide), E Bergen County and NE Suffolk County for similar reasoning as above/below. With S/SE gales ramping up through the time of high tide (favorable direction for surge along south facing coasts), high wave action onto open water coasts, and potential coincidence of heavy rain, this forecast has been leaned towards the higher end of plausible scenarios. A blend between SNAP-EX 50th percentile (NYHOPS 95th percentile), ETSS and STOFS was used. Offshore winds behind the cold front will end the coastal flood threat with subsequent high tides. -- End Changed Discussion