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JB in recent days finally gave up on a cold E US overall 3/15-4/15. So, he’s admitting defeat regarding his forecast for an overall chilly March in the E US. He got the first week of this period right, regardless, which included a cold St. Patrick’s Day. But he’s given up on an overall cold Holy Week/Easter. However, he’s now saying he expects April, overall, to have a lot of cold in the E US. “I think there’s going to be a lot of cold air develop in April across the United States.” He’s basing this partially on the prospect of MJO in phases 2-3, which he said tend to be cold. (I haven’t done my own research on that.) He’s also basing it on the prospects for a -NAO and -EPO as well as a “crash” of the SOI after the TCs are done. So, he’s expecting “quite the trough” mid to late April in the E US.

From what I've heard, leave now so you can get through the lines on time to make your flight.

It's that time of year when my wife or daughter asks me what the temperature will be outside and I'm like "No idea"..becuase I don't have enough interest to check models or forecasts. Yawn.

Flying to PBI from HVN 6:30 Friday morning. Headed to Miami for a few days for a bachelor party. Hoping that will at least take my mind off things after this week but much, much looking forward to a few days of temperatures around 80 with a touch of humidity.

euro looks p good next week

rough. dont feel bad i missed Feb 2013. And not only was that a major storm for CT, i am pretty much ground zero jackpot in that storm...

I don't delve deeply into this time of the year, but the roll forward into April and May doesn't look balmy.

6z euro AI is a total cancel there. It is warm Wednesday, but a fail after that.

You can add a little map for around Austin, TX and put a big fat zero there because that’s where I was for that storm.

It harkens back to what I have always said in response to those who have speculated that this would be the "new normal" as a result of CC driving the western Pac warm pool. YES....the globe is warming. However, these patterns remain cyclical and mother nature will find a way to achieve balance independent of the mean background warming.....abracadabra-presto! Notice a difference despite the west warm pool? What I will admit is we likely need to work on that to achieve more MJO phase 8 residence time and amplitude, which is likely still limiting large coastals, aside from the blizzard. I am willing to bet that the PDO will flip positive by next winter if we do get another strong El Nino, despite the CC signature on the SST pattern.

It's a pain to update these maps even for the most minor of changes but i couldn't let this be for Orange county. Razor sharp cut off https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-23-2016

Fairbanks AK -24 this AM 18th day this month below -20. Brutal month for AK and much of Canada while most of the US roasts

Rgem also showing. Would be nice to see flakes.

Big ridge shifting to the EC, lets see how this progresses, ensures and ultimately how warm can push into the city NE 3/30 - 4/9 looks above to much above normal.

Records: Highs: EWR: 79 (1963) NYC: 79 (1963) LGA: 77 (1963) JFK: 68 (2016) Lows: EWR: 18 !956) NYC: 13 (1878) LGA: 18 (1940) JFK: 23 (2014) Historical: 1843 - A second great snowstorm hit the northeastern U.S. The storm produced snow from Maine all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Natchez MS received three inches of snow, and up to 15 inches buried eastern Tennessee. Coastal Maine received 204 inches of snow that winter. (David Ludlum) 1901: More than 20 people were killed by an estimated F3 tornado that moved across parts of Birmingham, Alabama. The twister cut a 15-mile path from the south side of the city to Avondale and Irondale. 1914 - Society Hill, SC, was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1934 - A spring storm produced 21 inches of snow at Amarillo TX in 24 hours. However, much of the snow melted as it fell, and as a result, the snow cover was never any deeper than 4.5 inches. (David Ludlum) 1935: Suffocating dust storms frequently occurred in southeast Colorado between the 12th and the 25th of the month. Six people died, and many livestock starved or suffocated. Up to six feet of dust covered the ground. Schools were closed, and tenants deserted many rural homes. 1948 - For the second time in less than a week airplanes were destroyed by a tornado at Tinker AFB in Oklahoma City OK. A March 20th tornado destroyed fifty planes at Tinker AFB causing more than ten million dollars damage, and the March 25th tornado destroyed another thirty-five planes causing six million dollars damage. The first tornado struck without warning, and caused more damage than any previous tornado in the state of Oklahoma. The second tornado was predicted by Fawbush and Miller of the United States Air Force, and their accurate tornado forecast ushered in the modern era of severe weather forecasting. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) (The National Severe Storms Forecast Center) 1975 - The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Heavy rain left rivers and streams swollen in Kansas and Nebraska, causing considerable crop damage due to flooding of agricultural areas. The Saline River near Wilson Reservoir in central Kansas reached its highest level since 1951. March rainfall at Grand Island NE exceeded their previous record of 5.57 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - An early season heat wave prevailed in the southwestern U.S. The high of 93 degrees at Tucson, AZ, was a new record for March. Windy conditions prevailed across the central and eastern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Minneapolis MN, and reached 120 mph atop Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A Pacific storm brought wet weather to much of the western third of the country, with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. La Porte CA was drenched with 3.56 inches of rain in 24 hours. Up to 24 inches of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Temperatures dipped below zero in the Northern Rocky Mountain Region. Hardin MT was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 10 degrees below zero. Freezing drizzle was reported in the Southern Plains Region, with afternoon highs only in the 30s from the Southern High Plains to Missouri and Arkansas. (The National Weather Summary) 1992: Hailstones up to four inches in diameter resulted in more than $60 million in damage in Orlando, Florida. This storm is still the costliest Florida hailstorm on record. 1993: A severe thunderstorm produced hailstones up to 2 inches in diameter across parts of Austin, TX, resulting in the worst and costliest hailstorm in the city's history. An estimated $75 million dollars in damage was done to cars, roofs, skylights, greenhouses, and vegetation. 60 people were injured by the hail as they scrambled to protect their vehicles and other valuables. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: The first of three big hailstorms of the spring struck the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex in Texas. A severe thunderstorm moved across Dallas County, dumping hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. Total damage reached $80 million dollars.

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years. My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific. So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year. This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians.

40 / 32 roller coaster goes up today / Thu (but mainly cloudy) with upper 60s to low 70s then down / chillier this weekend Fri / Sat before coming back up for the longer duration as we moderate and transition into a warmer to much warmer setup into the first week to 10 days of April. Next week while looking warmer might see most days cloudy with some showers before the ridge really builds over the east in the April 3 - 7 period.

miss south stink but better than anticipated

The weather channel weather app showing 80 and 83 for next Thursday and Friday here….that might be a little aggressive lol….it had 60’s last night. Probably be gone in the next few hrs anyway…thing is all over the map.

Hello Baseball! Go Yanks! .

We should be close to normal temperatures today (low to mid 50's) before a brief spike to well above normal for The Phillies Opener (upper 60's). Then back to below normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. Shower chances increase tomorrow night into Friday morning with a cold front.

We should be close to normal temperatures today (low to mid 50's) before a brief spike to well above normal for The Phillies Opener (upper 60's). Then back to below normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. Shower chances increase tomorrow night into Friday morning with a cold front.