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Brutal run with the freezing rain

Gfs is really honing onto more backside moisture coming through with this arctic blast. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

12z GFS rock steady .

Ya, minimal for most - but here it makes a difference. Was looking for a hold or 10-15mi shift south.

Looking at the 12z GFS for Long Island it seems about 6-8 inches of snow before changeover to sleet around 5-7 pm. Then perhaps another 2 inches of sleet. I do not see Long Island with 14 inches of snow.

EURO matches my forecast best RN.

No. It’s a great run for us. Still 12+ and cold. It’s coming.

It has incrementally moved towards the Euro- gets plain rain on the lower eastern shore for a time with the low closer to the coast.

GFS yet again remains best case scenario.

For sure. The coastal transfer is a pipe dream for the majority of the form excluding far and nw. Some of the best runs snowfall wise were those early Ukie runs than ran the primary way west but were super amped with the overrunning. I think it’s a lost cause of trying to get it south of us-transfer and hope.

GFS onboard for Monday

Okay so here we are at what...48 hrs? Are there any signs of a cave so far?

The GFS and the RGEM/GEM aren't world's apart. 3hr difference on the flip. Both pretty solid on the thump. If the EURO shows a 5-6" thump I'll chillax.

Going to be in an interesting spot at my house at 2900’ in Black Mountain. I have no idea how we do in these type events since I havent experienced one here. Hoping we can hang on to the snow and get a couple of inches before the sleet. Worried about the freezing rain as well here.

This is why I believe parts of N Knox Co might stay frozen longer than other areas. My area is in the pink. .

Be careful with some of these online YouTube" Mets" for obvious reasons .......

If the NAM continues to show this I'd be bullish. NAM is typically good at detecting the northern extent of the sleet line.

It's the sleet, if you add up the just snow and the just sleet panels...it looks close to that depth map

did some post the RGEM...good grief

For DC and South - precip after hypo 10 am flip

GFS is a crippling Ice event for me down in the Northern Neck 5 inches snow, 1 inch sleet, 3/4 inch freezing rain

Agreed. They did well sniffing out this storm but as we got within 72hrs I think we need to weigh them less heavily.

GFS had sleet changing to freezing rain for NC.

GFS is flipping back to snow to the west as well. Interesting change.