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wowzers

It’s just a messy look in the extended unless we can shunt that gradient a bit more south. It could work out as is, but I wouldn’t be shocked with little snow either. It probably ends up more wintry than not up here…playing with fire more toward Metfan and the niño.

If we get shut out, sure. But i think most people grade a winter based on their local area and how much they receive compared to normal and other factors like cold/snow depth. Even though there was only 1 region wide warning event, any given area got at least 2-4 warning storms and 2-5 or 6 advisory level events. Through early feb its been great here with 2 warning storms and 2 advisory events with solid snow pack for over a month with a couple breaks and lots of cold. You can check out every single >1" storm for the season so far here: https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/sne-25-26 Snowfall through Feb 3, which is about half way through climo, was about 30-40" across much of the state. I think we need, at least in my opinion 2 more good warning events or at least high end adv to start considering it high B or A range, otherwise it could drop to C/C+ ish. A 12"+ storm, Boxing Day 6"+ storm, and deep snow pack really helps bring this winter up but well have to wait and see how late Feb and all of March shake out. At least its been orders of magnitude better than the last 3 winters. Ill probably update this, this week.

Teach me everything you know dad

After last year, I'm tempted to move from TV to OV. Would be nice to not be so multi-favorable teleconnection dependent. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. On a separate note, that 0z GEM run fits Carver's narrative well. Seems like March might come in like a lion one way or another.

He’s taken over while wolfie carves trails in the great white north. Gotta have someone managing the board vibes…

Big time. Shoveling daily. Worrying about your roof collapsing. No parking anywhere. Just give me one big storm per year and I'm good.

I don't think so. The winter started to flip after Snowmageddon. I believe we had a rain storm the 22nd, and one small snow event on the 26th. After that, it was essentially spring. (By the time we got to the first week of April, we had 90 degree temps on the 6th and 7th, completing one of the most impressive weather flips ever.) I think 2014 had a better chance of the snow staying that long. That was a year that we got snowstorm after snowstorm from the beginning of January to mid-March.

Nope. As usual, you are dead wrong. Par for the course with you

Stop forecasting with emotions.

It would get old quick honestly....

Didn't you predict a torch winter though. Feb was supposed to torch too because it's a super Nina according to you. Instead Dec-Feb will be below normal temp wise with average snowfall, a 3+ week snow pack, a prolonged cold spell that rivaled 2015. I think after that everyone will be OK with a warm March.

Looks more like 3/15 than 2/15 on the ops with the 0C 850 isotherm averaging out in the northern tier.

Nah, just emoting discussion.

Ya this is the one. They were closer to normal than I thought with places well south of the city actually below normal like the Norfolk to Baltimore area.

Would get me exactly to average snowfall

You state the GFS is not a good model, but yet you reference it. Why?

You’re going off a cliff

Weird.. the 354hr anomaly map is above average temps

Grew up there. Its nicely situated in a valley between the gentle rolling hills of western Ct. Pretty sharp descending path for planes. It radiates a lot colder than other locales nearby

Final call for late tonight/tom morning. NY/NJ area 1-2 thrilling stuff

all the NY/NJ climo sites are at or above normal through the date, LGA is right on the edge at +0.5 and EWR is +4.7, NYC is +1.6.

Welp. Not sure headed to Salamander Rock is going to help today. Even our local mountains can't even score. 10 years ago it would of been 31 and snow up there. Now 33 and rain lol

Wagons NOP.

Careful, snowcrazed may go after you.