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Like a salt shaker outside

This is perception bias. It does happen in reverse. The vast majority of our actual snowstorms were not on the guidance 174 hours out. And very often not showing that much snow...even at 72 hours. They trended into something in the last 48-72 hours... just like most of our "fantasy digital threats" trend away form something...because the truth is the odds of the guidance being exactly right from range is low. Very rarely do we get a snowstorm where the guidance nailed it from really far out. The first Feb 2010 storm...January 2016 were rare exceptions not the norm. And the reason it feels like we get way too many "false threats" is also perception bias. We register every potential threat as if "the models say it's going to snow" WHich models? Did they all? And when...did they have a threat at day 8 then lost it by day 6...which day is the one that matters...if we count every day through the whole winter where a couple models spit out a permutation with snow...as a legit threat and expect that snow to happen...that is on us...that is a failure of our perception not guidance. All that said our guidance is not perfect...its flawed...and we need to continue to work to improve our ability to forecast both with models and through other means. But you're compounding this by falling victim to typical perception biases.

If a heavy band materializes it will definitely rip...but the key is that lift is going to have to be vigorous enough to get into the DGZ and that could be a tough task given how high the DGZ is. But the problem here still is the thermal profile below the DGZ which would still promote some melting and degrading dendrites. I could see a scenario where radar is looking solid where the beam is intersecting the mid-levels of the storm, but ground truth is, "radar looks great but the flake size sucks". They won't have to worry about this in CNE though. But farther south into Mass it will be a problem.

The fact timing has shifted into a full daylight storm isn’t great either for those who like snow cover down here.

Omg snow maps. Call 5-0

I'm all good with a refresher snow once a week of 2-3 inches for the remainder of the winter. Pixie dust got a bit stronger in the last 15 minutes. Widespread 1-3 in N IL will hide some of the dirty snow and leaves.

Just Jeff hunting.

Actually no - they're not Specifically a key benefit to fossil that is not achieved from renewables is baseline reliability. This is of course huge, and a complete deal-breaker when it comes to trying to use renewables for the lion's share of our energy sources, for the foreseeable future. As it is now renewables can only act as a supplement to the primary energy sources of fossil, nuclear, and to a small extent hydro. Renewables cannot act as a primary source without completely redundant systems (a deal breaker cost-wise) or huge growth in battery storage (also a deal-breaker for the foreseeable future). Somehow this keeps getting ignored/forgotten about. It's moving its way towards center stage though, as our electrical grid becomes increasingly unreliable, and our EV sales growth sputters as it has. The demand growth due to AI certainly isn't helping the situation - it is certainly pushing the issue more to the center of the stage. Add to that the scale factor. So far renewables have mostly been picking the low-hanging fruit - with power being supplied to the grid in areas where wind and solar are easy - the desert southwest for solar and the flyover country for wind. Trying to scale wind and solar from its current 15% of electrical supply in those regions to the 75-80% or so required nationwide (particularly in the harder-to-reach NE population corridor), and adding the increased demand due to EVs and AI is going to require incredible growth in our electrical grid infrastructure. The benefits-vs-cost equation starts to change dramatically after the low-hanging fruit has been picked.

I will be making my appearance. Can be there for 3.

maybe it's because its the GFS more than a week out

I stand by 15 mile prediction of a lot to a little Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

That's how I'm tending. There will be ice on Hoover, Greenlee, and Long Ridge mountains, here right behind the house, but at twice my elevation. There have been a couple times in my 22 years in this location where I had ice at the house but none down on Hwy 70.

Shotgun blasts after the sun sets tomorrow?

Congrats. It's really close here. I'm on the eastern edge of heavier amounts and the drop off from taint appears to be right on Route 1. North of there 'appears' to be okay--south has a little reduction. I'm a mile north of route 1.

EPS have them too. The 10th in particular looks interesting

Some of yall are already trying my patience and it’s only December 1st

The amount of digital snow we lose each year is absurd. Why does it never happen in reverse… i dont get it? Models have a 2-3 degree cold bias for mid Atlantic? .

Ceilings lowered, flurries have commenced here as well.

That's okay, I just said this morning to my other half that I forgot to start up the snow blower yesterday to make sure everything is good. And then today everything went to s***. I don't even think we'll see a trace LOL. Well if I see some flakes in the air I guess that's good enough for now.

Final call for this storm, shifting everything to the north and west by a ton. The storm keeps trending slower and slower AND warmer, both horrible for our storm for everyone. I'm thinking I-95 will start as a wintery mix and areas just NW of 95 will start as some flakes before quickly shifting over. Far NW suburbs + mountains will still likely see some decent accumulations, but I removed the 6-8 contour for the poconos as totals downtrend even for up there. Schuylkill, Carbon, and Monroe counties are the only areas on this map that will remain all snow. Still can't rule out isolated 6"+ for those areas but not widespread enough to add the 6-8 contour back

The Mid-Atlantic would be an extraordinarily snowy climate if water froze at 36 instead of 32.

this started off last week with the GFS giving us 17 inches.

paging the PDO Nazi @psuhoffman