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Looks 12/ 2007 ish

CJ is the worst of the worst.

Sign me up, still snowing at 84

Yes indeed! (WB 18Z GEFS is better!) (last picture comparison to 12Zz)

Shaping up to be another GFS vs Euro battle. The GFS remains amped, the Euro remains mostly ots/suppressed.

LOT is 100% going to play it safe this go-around, after the single person blunder with the LES event.

18z GEFS coming in with a pretty evenly distributed amount of members going for snow, too far north and rain, and too far south and miss. The track of this storm and its behavior is dependent on many factors, namely timing, track of the shortwave as it rounds the base of the TPV lobe, and how strong the TPV can actually suppress this thing south. It is certainly possible that the TPV suppresses this storm too far south which is what the Euro AI is showing. I think the GFS solution of a changeover to rain is unrealistic, and a much more likely fail mode is that the shortwave is too flat and goes out to sea. The 18z Euro should be in range tonight if not for the early morning 06z run, so we'll have more guidance to go off of for this 18z suite

18z Gefs is a bit better on snowfall fwiw than 12z.

In the wake of the storm that brought rain to the region last night into early today, colder air will rush into the region tonight. The closing days of November will be much colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30. The opening days of December will turn somewhat milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and then continue into or through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +20.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.232 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.9° (1.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Not here. Saw blue sky for 5 min

It's the 50th anniversary of "Jaws" this year...hey, that's gotta be worth something!

Pretty please that’s my birthday

Rather it show it over amped at this point than under amped. Hard to come back from lack of energy, easier to get it to de amplified

No rainbow here, but saw a pretty cool silverish/blue tint to the clouds leading into sunset. Got breezy as well.

current energy policy is bad for consumers, but good for fossil fuel folks

Heard thunder (last one of the year?) from that quick line. Chilly stretch coming up...hoping the Catoctin cloud magnet is on Tgiving break, so we can get some sunshine here during that span.

Fwiw gefs has stronger high this run vs last

Went to an appointment in Lewistown at 3:00. Sunny and 60. It was dark as shit and 56 at 3:30 when I left.

I was looking forward to the mid 60s that were forecast today.Sad, they'd only ever got to 54

Keep them there...lol Side note. I thought I made a post about 1:30pm concerning the snow and my employment, but I don't see it. Maybe I forgot to hit reply? I don't know. Hope it wasn't deleted for some reason.

12/6 2-4"+ on Gfs

Ain’t that awesome.

Hope the GIF works.. 18z NAM for ORD here. Pretty decent co-location between Omega and DGZ. Fairly shallow DGZ sitting at 100-150mb depth; and though best omega is a bit above, still not too bad. There's also some slight jet coupling perhaps earlier in the event. Tough to tell the ratios between WAA snow, decent dynamics, but also at worst some precip mixing. Personally think KLOT is a bit lambish but it is tough to tell for now. We'll have a better idea with high res models of course. Hoping we can squeeze a brief weenie band somewhere midday in nIL.

Happy hour pbp is back!