All Activity

Smoke? There’s some cirrus moving through. Vis seems fine.

87F for high. Sitting at a comfy 75F now.

Wildfire smoke ruining a perfect evening?

US Drought Monitor is a contracted service with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln with decades of AG experience. The composite for the area has actually shown improvement from week to week after the last period of rainfall leading to a downgrade in category from Extreme to Severe at a higher prevalence. The top soil layer is only part of the equation and it takes more than 5-7" of rain to combat a persistent deep layer soil moisture pitfall. It took a step in the right direction this go around compared to what has been occurring. I can tell you don't like government bodies by this response and I for one have issues with some government entities as well because I want to hold governments at all levels to a higher standard, however the work done from top to bottom in this industry is critical in maintaining a positive report with the AG industry which spans far and wide across the U.S. This group is consistently praised by the decision-makers at large and anecdotal evidence from a small part of a bigger picture does not represent the entire story. We can agree to disagree, but I thought the map made sense from all the data I have parsed, which I do on the daily while I'm on the job.

You can call the ASOS weather phone. They pretty much all have one…AWOS too. A few of the bigger sites do have online software with realtime data. The NWS has 1 min obs from PHX up on their site too.

Hence "CoastalWx!?"

Gusts last for 10 mins before it resets

I do actually. Can see boundaries nicely. Works well with coastal fronts.

Scott uses the TBOS FAA radar for local wind insights. The pride of Weymouth - having a radar! LOL.

I'll definitely remember this one. Really, the only near full-proof plan with Kalshi is to wait on DSMs/remarks and "trade" on highs/lows that already occur. You need to compete with bots and that's difficult to accomplish unless you develop a bot yourself. I do wonder where people get observations from in near real-time. Odds flipped well before an observation was provided at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBOS Anyone from the NWS know? I think MADIS is the closest you can get to ~real-time.

The US Drought Monitor failed miserably again this morning. This is typical of a government entity that sucks up dollars and spits out crap. Augusta- Severe and Extreme Drought.. It does not exist..

Nice to hear from you Buckeye.

Yea, a -5 departure for the winter in a place like Atlanta and southern apps probably implies some much below normal periods in there that if timed up with a nino-style stj can give them their freak snows. Meanwhile, during those same periods we're cold but watching the juice slide under us. Likewise, when a place like Columbus or Detroit sees a +5 departure for the winter in a nino, chances are that the cold periods are dry and the warm is wet. But like i mentioned in an earlier post, super ninos can definitely pack a surprise or two.

Duplicate observations too. I claim foul play! There were other 88 degree observations afterwards, and the DSM does have 88 at 14:59LST (after the random gusts to 51kt) so I'll take the 'L' on this one. If I mention AI again, ban me. Every time I question AI's reliability/efficacy/etc..., I get lit up lol

It seems to be warming near the oceans, on the East coast and West coast, but not as much in the Midwest, where it's flat. I remember global predictions in the 90s had a +PDO/El Nino pattern projected for decades forward, but it has not happened that way. Maybe some of the EC warmth is associated with +AMO decadal.

I’m in Weymouth sort of in the northern part of town a couple miles from the water. I had a pretty good southwest wind all day, usually if that’s the case and Logan Seabreeze they’ll bump after 4 o’clock many times it’s like between five and 6 o’clock.

This is a good point. But even then, its not steady temps across the board. Its still colder in the mean in the north than the south. Which means blues in the south arent necessarily great for snow, but reds in the north arent prohibitive of snow either.

SW 13kt and back down to 86°. Maybe a pilot had the over on 88°

Going to be a snowy winter in Vegas and Miami!

Same with Erie. And NYC for that matter. 1990s winters were warmer than 2000s or 2010s winters. The globe may have warmed in that timeframe but winters in the Lakes/Northeast were colder the next 2 decades after the 1990s. So any parallels to the 1997-98 nino I certainly wont be worried about a verbatim weather scenario with temps a degree or 2 warmer, thats not how the weather works.

BOS is always a gamble to bet on. There was a wind error in there around the time the wind flipped though. I don’t think they gusted to 51kt. lol

Sun could be interesting. Ydy it acted more like a BDF and cool marine infested, but tdy not at all. BDF in a classic sense occurs when it is anticyclonic NW flow here w/ high heights/thickness, and the only cool air is very shallow. Not the case here at all. It is cyclonic flow aloft w/ falling heights and a decent vort/shortwave moving in Sun aftn. GFS/ECM show half-decent CAPE and w/ the cold 500 temps and dynamic support, could be good in some areas. Not honkin' svr, but I bet good enough for WxWiz! The front sagging just to S may actually help in this case. Also, cells dropping N to S? They tend to do well.

Which ensembles have 90’s next week?

+6 degrees within 5 minutes. Definitely didn't expect that. The first few observations looked suspicious too. Good call, @CoastalWx I guess I gotta' torch the sensor to collect on the over

Yes, and ASOS is as well. Recall it was noted that whatever falls in the ASOS gauge and melts as LEQ, can't be adjusted? So the 37.9" at PVD in the Feb storm had only 1.78" LEQ. That seems high the 21:1 ratio. BOS is much worse. 17.1" and only .47" LEQ for that storm? PVD -5", ORH -3.5", BDL -2.5" CON -2". So the -7.5" at BOS does not fit. And we are talking the first 5 months of the year where you do not have higher local differences from convection. But the media doesn't care, they just take thing as face value and run w/ it.