All Activity

Okay, I'm placing my GFS cave bet on 6z.

Even the GFS now has rain getting into HR

I mean the GFS is a bit faster with the sleet line but also has more QDF falling.

GFS is a mauling for all of us Hour 72

Yeah I think your first guess is pretty good.

It's just slightly warmer but it's just not going the route the other models show

I will just say temperature wise, the NAM had me at 33 at 10pm, I was 29. The 3k NAM has me at 33 at 11pm, but I'm currently 28. The 02 HRRR says I should be 31 at 11pm.

Still holding on 95 and west at 18z sunday

Yep, they are on the wrong side of Lake Erie down wind is over in Erie, PA or Southwestern New York State depending on wind vectors from the west, northwest, and southwest during cold air advection and wind patterns.

GFS seems to hold.

Yes, GFS had more than NAM

Gfs is all snow with more precip. Mecs.

AIGFS looks pretty identical to 18z to me.

GFS was a little warmer but RIC still gets 6-8” before the flip. Unfortunately it has no support

GFS is a money run

Doesn’t look like a cave. Looks remarkably consistent to its last few runs?

100%

Shrooms, weed and ecstasy?

Still the matter of higher latitude.

We’re in the 2 feet bentcarrot.com area. 495 delineates circumcision.

1/23 00z GFS

Agreed. In my oversimplified view I think of getting a major snowstorm at the coast here as having similar odds as winning $50 on a $1 scratch off lottery ticket, which is something like 1 in 360. That would work out to one big storm every four winters if distributed perfectly. Maybe at the moment the odds are now 1 in 500, or one in every 5-6 winters, again *if distributed perfectly.* Either way, you need a heck of a lot of luck to have a winner. And given the low odds to begin with, the change in the total number of big storms that one sees in a lifetime might be so minor as to be unnoticeable. Then when you consider the temperatures in the 1980s and the number of big snows and compare to the temperatures and big snows in the 2010s, it becomes apparent that its not just about cold. Someone on this board posts a nice image of a triangle with the three ingredients for snow: cold, moisture, and luck. That's very true.