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They've ran a lot of those mini games for decades, I saw that even once Drew Carey took over.

That’s a better look vs EPS which is what I was going on.

OMG that brings back memories of being sick and staying home from school. Ginger Ale and pack of saltines on a tray table next to the couch. Yep I just dated myself.

Models have had such a bias for warm in the east in the medium-long range that it's stupid to believe anything they say regarding warmth in the E US until it's within D5 (and even then they can shift i.e. boxing day 2025).

BAM has pretty much cancelled the red flags too.

Yup. Like you’ve always said…our snowfall in deep winter correlates better to QPF than temps (at least inland).

EPS got colder overnight as well. GFS digging troughs to Mexico City is gone. Just need some fantasy range storms to start popping again.

This is some torch we are in. Being sarcastic obviously, but remember when guidance had Dec 24-Jan 10 as a total torch job? Now it even appears the real moderation period that is coming next week will be muted and short-lived with seasonal cold returning by later next weekend.

The mega torch will show up again once the 25th is in range, mark my words.

CTP had this great post. I certainly wouldn’t mind a 13-14 repeat here, except this time add on the 3 March events that just missed us to our south in MD.

If you think we were running colder than normal the entire holiday season you are correct. In the 37 days since Thanksgiving day 31 of those days have featured below normal temperatures. We should have another 3 days of below normal temperatures before we finally see an above normal temperature day on Tuesday. In fact, that day should begin a streak of well above normal temperatures that should last for about 6 days before we look to potentially trend back to below normal by next Monday. There is a slight chance of some flurries tonight with our next rain chance arriving by Thursday night.

If you think we were running colder than normal the entire holiday season you are correct. In the 37 days since Thanksgiving day 31 of those days have featured below normal temperatures. We should have another 3 days of below normal temperatures before we finally see an above normal temperature day on Tuesday. In fact, that day should begin a streak of well above normal temperatures that should last for about 6 days before we look to potentially trend back to below normal by next Monday. There is a slight chance of some flurries tonight with our next rain chance arriving by Thursday night.

All 3 models have moved away from a SER at d15/16. That's why I don't get why anyone worries about the pattern depiction that far out, esp given how this has gone for months now. Any suggestion of protracted warmth is muted/ doesnt materialize.

Today’s ens MJO progs both later get into 6: inside circle 6 would be best for cold chance during ph 6 as just posted: also Jans with 20+ days anywhere inside circle have averaged colder than the others as I posted about before:

Key word is a bit… This warm up is brief. Winter returns by the 12th

After lots of clippers and moose fart upslope events that drop coatings everywhere that isn’t on the mountain spine, a lot of us will roll the dice for some meatier events that carry a cutter risk. Esp going into heart of coldest climo.

I actually like the WAR location there. We had that frequently for a few years in the 2016-2018 timeframe which brought some storms back from the dead that were out to sea. The one worry is the epo ridge retrogrades west with time which can introduce more cutter potential.

Yeah this next 5-7 days is definitely gonna be above average temp wise for a large majority of the lower 48 outside of the west coast. It could be record highs in some areas from the looks of it. As John mentioned earlier it’s gonna be another huge weekend for the snow lovers in California!! As for us in the Tennessee Valley I do think we’re headed in the right direction based off what we’re seeing in long term guidance, we’ve just gotta get through a warm week to get there!

My car wasn’t topped last night. We’re due!! 24F

Low of 19. Solid winter days here before we warm up for a bit.

A little snow

Well, as it turned out again using GSP, El Niño ph 6 near or inside the circle in Jan turns out to avg cold just like La Niña inside Jan ph 6: Phase 6 during Nino Jan 77 6-9, 11-13: -7, -4, -11, -7, -20, -15, -13 (-11 W) 78 4: -6 (-6 W) 80 31: -13 (-13 W) 83 10-1: +1, +3 (+2 W) 92 3-8: +10, +13, +8, +6, +2, +1 (+7 W) 95 28-30: +1, -6, -7 (-4 W) 98 1-3, 21-2: -12, 0, +6, -3, -3 (-2 M)(-3 W) 03 10-12, 23-5: +5, -6, -10, -16, -19, -10 (-4 M)(-15 W) 05 9-19, 31: +10, +11, +11, +18, +22, +7, -1, -2, -13, -15, -14, -1 (+3 M)(-1 M) 07 9-13, 15-6, 24, 26-31: -1, -3, -4, +5, +16, +21, +5, -3, -5, +5, -2, -15, -2, -12 (+6 M)(-5 W) 10 20-1: +15, +3 (+9 M) 15 9-14, 28-31: -8, -11, -10, -1, -1, -4, -3, -2, 0, -4 (-6 S)(-2 W) 19 2-3, 25-30: +10, +11, -4, -5, -3, +1, -3, -9 (+11 S)(-4 S) 24 24-7: +6, +17, +21, +12 (+14 S) So, there were 20 Nino Jan ph 6 periods: 10 W: 3 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 1 A; avg -158/36 = -4.4 for weak! 6 M: 1 B, 2 N, 2 A, 1 MA avg +43/27 = +1.2 for moderate 4 S: 2 B, 2 MA +19/18 = +1 for strong 81 days BN 39 NN 16 AN 26 -66 cumulative or -1/day overall but cold concentrated when near/inside circle (-4 there vs +1 outside) similar to La Niña! For La Niña, it was overall -2/day with it averaging -5/day near/inside circle and +1 outside. So, the BAMwx idea of a cold E US during ph 6 in Jan in -AAM works out only for weak/mainly inside the circle and Nino is similar.

It is reminiscent of a couple of winters ago when the ensembles and operationals kept showing the MJO going through phases 8-1-2 at high amplitude in the long range over and over again for months….it never happened. I believe it was the 2023-24 winter