All Activity

True, But for it to regress back at 12z leaves little confidence it wasn’t a blip

6z

LOL!! All the spots I post to including FB, Twitter, multiple forums like this one and several on Discord....hard to keep up with my full time job!

You gotta admit that map with the big hole is funny as hell. I laughed way to hard for way to long at that.

Erm, I can't see 6z but 12z is basically the same as 0z .

If it ends up being a 1-2ft sne blizzard then the euro seriously should be shipped back to the factory for patchwork.

And what about the ECMWF AI?

after reviewing 12Z Guidance 60 % chance - Advisory Level 40 % chance - SECS 30 % chance MECS 30 % chance below advisory level All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only

Generally, the ECMWF outperforms the GFS, CMC, JMA, and UKMET for every variable (gph, wind, temperature, etc...), isobaric surface, and for all spatial (CONUS, N-Hem, etc...) and temporal (fcst hr 0-240) stratification over the past 31 days. I would say, the UKMET is a close 2nd place though (at least, for gph). It even slightly outperforms the ECMWF from ~122-140hr. For visualization (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2obs/hgt/): Regardless, I'm still placing more weight on ensembles. If the EPS improves/holds steady, I'll still follow the event.

I still think a costal grazer is on the table but the fluctuating ensemble support, lack of EURO being on board, EC AIFS trending east makes it hard to put any faith in a major storm forum wide - not probable, but obviously not impossible. We're just starting to get some decent melting this week, so I'd be ok with a miss.

EPS pretty meh but a few hits

06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape.

Big shift west on Ukie eps

What about the 3-6/4-8 Saturday? Stealing Sunday/Monday’s thunder

Have no good reason for it but I feel good about this one. We're still very much in ensemble range and I believe those have been trending in the right direction. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

But the GDPS SEZ go for it!!! LOL.

The SV maps are a decent match for precip but generally the common wisdom is WxBell ptype depiction is better.

Dude, you definitely need a new therapist. FYI you also need a refund from your current therapist.

EURO not having anything to do with this from jump street is a massive red flag. Just another model, but it has to come on board to some degree

The snow at the Mansfield stake has tracked 03-04 pretty closely so far. https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/

Sizable shift east on euro ai eps

North Carolina is STILL scoring in March

Sunny weekend on the euro. I am not giving up until NAM is in range.