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Which that is 10:1...could have bigger amounts?

Definitely hugging the Euro!

I’m seeing more and more pink from the foothills west slowly but surly .

You can also just do some back-of-hand math. most mets are saying 15:1 - 17:1 ratios, so just double the number and shave like an inch or so off

Looks like a parade of clippers beginning feb 3-4 but I honestly don't see a big dog until the next NAO/AO rebound(ie mid month), flow is too fast for anything serious to organize. We are either going to need another SWFE and all that entails(mixing) or deal with the 1-3/2-4" type deals the next 2 weeks. I know guidance shows a miller b threat 3-4th but I think the flow is just too fast for anything to come of it. Too many s/w's like that just screams interference for any coastals. We're better off rooting for some good clipper passes. Those can still deliver.

Not at all convinced there will be enough moisture to amount much IMBY either.

Yes i have the subscription. Anyone that has access to the Kuchera map for the Euro Ai please post it.

2”-5” across Knox Co .

Yeah this weekend is going to be wild.

GGEM: UKMET:

Man even a more slightly west close off would mean so much. Gah.

Turn your phone sideways. Landscape. You’ll see locations

Definitely hugging the Euro in Hampton Roads!

LETS GO!! REEEEEEEEE!!!

ICON: GFS: GFS AI AIGFS

If that little chunk of energy over northern NY is real, I want that ish to be much more pronounced and displaced over like Cleveland so we can see them dance instead of it dropping a hammer down on our big beautiful bowling ball

That’s what I was thinking. He’s one of those old school Mets . Those methods still work. Hope it does with this

Good luck, hope you see blizzard conditions.

Winter storm warning for Knox County .

I will get excited for north Atlanta suburbs once @SnowGoose69 says we have a chance

This proves again, never put faith in the GFS. While every model wobbled, including the Euro, the GFS was by far the outlier and responsible for getting everyone reeled in. If the Euro isn't on board, don't get your hopes up outside of 48hours.

Positive tilt doesn't do us any favors but we're in trending phase. Every suite shows the shortwave digging further south. Which is the most important piece because having a low track overhead isn't going to work. The current -AO tank wasn't modeled well so it makes sense that this is trending further south. It also has a gulf connection so moisture can be tapped well west of us. It's very unlikely to morph into a significant event but it has potential for something modest. Like .25-.50 qpf all snow or something like that. Nothing else worth watching rn so it's all we got.

My winter storms books mention that we often score when the NAO relaxes to a less negative state. If we're gonna get a big one this year I think it'll be just as this cold pattern is getting ready to flip and then we get our storm followed by warm temps.

12z crap misses round up: NAM: RGEM: