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I see the radar has some returns in PA, I just figured it was all virga. 15F/DP -2F

But what about every other model that’s been locked in for days? You could make the argument for cmc rgem Ukie rap hrrr euro ai euro they haven’t wavered

Hearing OKX radar is offline. Perfect timing!

Hopefully we do! Everything is iced over!

It has been flurries here for a while now on the peninsula. Currently, 22.1/11, I'm thinking we're looking at an ice storm Sunday.

Source: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53067/noaa_53067_DS1.pdf

On the 18z it was at 775 mb where I am or about 6500 ft.

Man, 1” QPF in 6-hours near BOS is an absolute thumping. ORH-BOS-TAN zone is a wild output.

The Nam gives me crappy snow growth for a while. When sleet is just skimming me. This warm tongue would screw my totals.

Diamond dust right now.

it certainly led the way detecting the warm nose from its 84 hour run...there is pretty good agreement now that south of 78 will have a changeover to sleet...the question is does it get all the way up the ny/nj border. The high end amount for this storm have all been sliced little by little. The HRRR is always cold and snowier than reality. Im not saying it might only be 4-6, i am saying the warming alot is real. That will prevent those 10-12 inch amounts in central jersey and Nyc and jersey shore im expecting a heavy thump for about 5 hours from 8-1pm and then sleet and then shuts down to snizzle....5-6 inches with an inch of sleet. maybe 6-8 a call for my area

Was it the Blue Dog bakery treats that did the trick?

It is public. I'm not going to share directly because it's a bit of a clunky site and I'm afraid to look at it wrong let alone let the hordes onto it.

I’m sure it’s somewhat excessive. It probably jumps the sleet line all the way to I-84 still. You can see how the amounts drop from Monticello area to I-84.

1 inch down. 13/10

Praise God!

South Hills get the WTOD

Here in Ashland -Virginia Center Commons area tonight because of work. Just started lightly snowing consistently now. Now instantly covering streets because of how cold it is -it's unbelievable

The NAM just won't quit, slightly cooler but not enough to matter, an I-80 to Route 6 jackpot haha. Lancaster 5-8". It's going down with the ship one way or another. Tomorrow will be quite illuminating.

What's with the fingers on the lower left. Trampled undergrad reaching for the last banana?

My cousin near Cincinnati was reporting snow at 530 fwiw.

Random question, is there a reason your beer pics seem to always be black and white?

It also seems too dry. It doesn't have most of the heavier precip just north of the VA/NC border.

Same as before I mean it also never backed down in Oklahoma and Arkansas as was and this was the result The NAM Split: The NAM is the most interesting case. For liquid rain, it has a staggering 0.96 correlation, meaning it mapped the storm's shape almost perfectly. However, for snow, its correlation plummeted to 0.18. This proves the NAM understood where the moisture was, but failed completely at the "transition physics"—it thought the air was too warm, keeping it as rain when it should have been snow. Every other model had snow correlation between .5 to .7 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

ZR in Raleigh. Some IP mixing. So much for sleet saving us, glaze on everything. QPF only limiting factor now