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PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance so fathom a flip in the fact of a strong El Nino.

People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore.

Time to charge up the camcorder

IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive

Had a rumble of thunder this morning. Thus concludes t-storm season 2026.

I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.

We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses.

I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one.

8 >70 here 71 / 51

EWR: 2.8 inches NYC: Trace

Happy birthday, little snowmanette! Our youngest will be turning 25 this year. Holy crap. She was actually due to enter the world on 9/11/2001 but the day's events were enough that she came a few days later. Just hard to believe that was 25 years ago. Where does the time go?

No warming or cooling is my point you miss - just typical cyclical normal climate changes FTW!!

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

Upglide right over that boundary

So choosing 2 data points out of a possible 335 to make a trend without any uncertainty analysis is good while taking all 335 with a robust uncertainty analysis is cherry-picking? Make that make sense. And let me preempt your gaslighting. I didn't pick the 335 data point subset or claim that it would be sufficient to draw conclusions about whether the planet was warming or not. You did.

Got 0.30" of rain overnight. A couple stronger cells with vivid lightning passed just barely north, got a good view.

Looks like it’s raining sort of where it needs it most ? relative to drought ballyhoo

Oh I’m sure it’s cruel blue balling … but we dream

yup...had that look yesterday on guidance. Was waiting to see if SPC would expand the marginal and they just did

Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:

2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger.

Looks like we will become a bit more unsettled starting today through Thursday. Will be a little help with it being bone dry.

6z nipped that back a bit…seabreeze look on the GFS and EC op. AIs not enthused.

Some EML in place. Could be a few decent bangers near and just north of front

Unfortunately ..we gotta get through Thursday first