All Activity
- Past hour
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
Kitz Craver replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
True, But for it to regress back at 12z leaves little confidence it wasn’t a blip -
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
LOL!! All the spots I post to including FB, Twitter, multiple forums like this one and several on Discord....hard to keep up with my full time job! -
You gotta admit that map with the big hole is funny as hell. I laughed way to hard for way to long at that.
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Erm, I can't see 6z but 12z is basically the same as 0z .
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
RUNNAWAYICEBERG replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
If it ends up being a 1-2ft sne blizzard then the euro seriously should be shipped back to the factory for patchwork. -
And what about the ECMWF AI?
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after reviewing 12Z Guidance 60 % chance - Advisory Level 40 % chance - SECS 30 % chance MECS 30 % chance below advisory level All of the above is IMO and for immediate NYC Metro only
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Generally, the ECMWF outperforms the GFS, CMC, JMA, and UKMET for every variable (gph, wind, temperature, etc...), isobaric surface, and for all spatial (CONUS, N-Hem, etc...) and temporal (fcst hr 0-240) stratification over the past 31 days. I would say, the UKMET is a close 2nd place though (at least, for gph). It even slightly outperforms the ECMWF from ~122-140hr. For visualization (https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/prod/atmos/grid2obs/hgt/): Regardless, I'm still placing more weight on ensembles. If the EPS improves/holds steady, I'll still follow the event.
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I still think a costal grazer is on the table but the fluctuating ensemble support, lack of EURO being on board, EC AIFS trending east makes it hard to put any faith in a major storm forum wide - not probable, but obviously not impossible. We're just starting to get some decent melting this week, so I'd be ok with a miss.
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
ineedsnow replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
EPS pretty meh but a few hits -
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
ORH_wxman replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
06z run was damned closed on Euro....it crushed the cape. -
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
weathafella replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
What about the 3-6/4-8 Saturday? Stealing Sunday/Monday’s thunder -
Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
IUsedToHateCold replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Have no good reason for it but I feel good about this one. We're still very much in ensemble range and I believe those have been trending in the right direction. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. -
But the GDPS SEZ go for it!!! LOL.
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Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range
NorthArlington101 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
The SV maps are a decent match for precip but generally the common wisdom is WxBell ptype depiction is better. -
Dude, you definitely need a new therapist. FYI you also need a refund from your current therapist.
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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco
Kitz Craver replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
EURO not having anything to do with this from jump street is a massive red flag. Just another model, but it has to come on board to some degree -
The snow at the Mansfield stake has tracked 03-04 pretty closely so far. https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/
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North Carolina is STILL scoring in March
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Sunny weekend on the euro. I am not giving up until NAM is in range.
