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Those forecasts in the Midwest I feel often over do it on a area wide scale. But there will be a narrow band were it's potentially life threatening. A lot of areas will qualify blizzard conditions with much less snow than forecast because of severe winds.

H to 3rd did increase some

The maps that are vendor generated

39/16

H to 3rd not that far off from NAM but still a big difference in 50-55mph vs 60-70mph in terms of damage potential

What time is this map for? I am concerned about the evening commute and school buses being on the roads! .

Probably can't rule out some strong thunderstorms during the early afternoon along the edge of higher theta-e air working in

I'll go against you on this one. There is nothing exciting about tomorrow to me. I'm very concerned

Ginxy doesn't make maps.

Probably one of the most impressive line-embedded tornado potential I think I've seen for these parts tomorrow. Unusually when you're seeing 15% tornado probs, you are either talking about or looking for discrete cells (which of course are very possible tomorrow) but that degree of turning combined with sufficient CAPE in the layer and timing of the forcing...going to see some significant rotation embedded within that line tomorrow.

If this were to actually hold we would see quite the KW form and would significantly raise the chances of at least a moderate to strong Nino.

Tomorrow is one of the most impressive setups I think I've seen for line-embedded tornadoes in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow. That is some serious turning in the lowest 3km with what looks to be more than sufficient CAPE, not to mention the timing of the strongest forcing seems to coincide quite well with the best ingredients.

Low of 36. All eyes on tomorrow for what should be an exciting, but hopefully not too destructive, weather day.

That was a great winter for sure. It feels like a flip has switched during the subsequent three winters but that may or may end up proving true. However, the extent to which warm and snowless records have not just been broken but in many cases obliterated this year is ultimately more noteworthy, I believe, than a very good but not record smashing season four years ago now. That’s my take anyway.

8 foot wingspan?!?

The infamous severe thunderstorm warning box within a blizzard warning.

Agree how many times have we been forecasted to get 1-3 from a deformation band and end up with 30 minutes of flurries

https://www.news8000.com/weather/live-cameras/

It hasn’t been a terrible March up here. Sitting at 1.26” LE for the month. YTD is 1.74”, so yeah January and most of Feb was underwhelming.

Unfortunately…NAM

I am very intrigued with Monday. Nam3km showing rates of 2"+ per hour around 3-5pm in Buncombe County. Looks like the column of air goes frozen as the heavy precipitation moves in. Upper Level Low going negative tilt helps this. I'll be watching the Alabama radar tomorrow to see what is developing. That will be the main slug of moisture and then NWF. NAM3km gave man 3" on the 12Z run, looks to agree with the GFS. Euro still on board with a dusting for most. Also as Met mentioned, the long range pattern certainly doesn't look warm.

Letting my Pivotalwx subscription expire tonight. Not worth paying for it anymore. I’ll renew it again in mid-November like I normally do

Today is sneaky. I think for those along and west of I-77, it’s worth not getting lulled to sleep and distracted by Monday’s headlines.

Ya just posted about it on the socials 3-4”+ possible

Seems to me LOT has played this pretty good thus far.