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lol we are gonna be more than halfway through our avg 90-deg days before the end of June.
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Radar seems to favor NYC/north later
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AL in 2011 with 146. “Padded” with 62 on April 27. KS in 2008 had 187. TX in 2015 had 244. Still a few outbreaks away from touching that in IL.
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the dew has fallen into the low 60s here, but its 92. doesnt exactly feel unstable out there. the extreme dryness plays a big part.
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Well it did rain.... Had 5 drops on my windshield.
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I’m jealous. Been mostly cloudy up here all morning and mild. Hoping we can get some sun up here for a bit. I’m gonna be out west for a couple weeks so I’d like to see/hear some storms prior.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree 100%. But actually, at least 1 in here IS implying the lowest snow totals will repeat. Analogs are a tool like models. You could have everything align nearly identical to a previous year and the weather will never be replicated verbatim. Assuming winter is mild overall, there will likely be some significant Fall cold shots and early snows here in the lakes, that is a very common strong nino trait. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
BlizzardWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My numbers run slightly higher than WCS, and showing a rise back to around 0. Last year at this time we were tanking the value. In 2024 we were recovering somewhat after already tanking, but values were still much lower than now. In my mind its clear that things are really changing from where we've been the last 10 years. Yeah, maybe we aren't headed for a robust +PDO, but it feels like neutral to slightly positive could be in the cards. -
Loving these temps but I know the rubber band is gonna snap by the 4th so I'm going to FL after the 4th for 2 weeks to justify 95/75 everyday lol.
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Just upgraded to 5% .
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That’s a lot of water to our west on Albany radar. Bring it!
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Wet late Monday 6/22 or another Fizzle?
Weather Will replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Pouring in Brightwaters unfortunately that’s probably the only rain that I, and most of the island will see
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Given this (granted its early) I don't think tropical is anything we'll be tracking. Unless you want to count any remnant Gulf systems being absorbed in troughs come Fall and moving up to our west
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The 12z CSU MLP update re-increased the 5% area for TOR and also inched the 30% wind closer to MBY.
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Good luck counting on that day. Not much will happen tomorrow
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HRR is putting the heavy axis of QPF in SNH and SVT. What are everyones thoughts on this? 3" max or more?
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Can we actually back into a nice event??
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Actually looks decent for two convective chances tomorrow morning, then later in the afternoon/evening. Would be tough to go 0-3 with one system, but Stein still has his fastball
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Wet late Monday 6/22 or another Fizzle?
Weather Will replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Looks like about a buck 50 on the NAM N of the Pike. Nothing ridic. Beneficial. ...I'm sure we'll focus on whatever 5.76" version instead... but probably this is a 'standard' soaking
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Wet late Monday 6/22 or another Fizzle?
Weather Will replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
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Dew point was in the mid 30's this morning. Not something you normally see in this part of Michigan in the latter part of June.
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I’d be surprised if I get more than half an inch
