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Just looking at that ... Euro has a 1030-ish high pressure moving from NW to S of NS overnight into Wed AM. GFS does not have that feature. The difference is resisting and/or creating a warm boundary in the Euro - that look is nastier probably in reality on this side of that type of boundary. The GFS has, by an admittedly narrow precarious room for error, a W east stationary front aligned W-E, situated just N of you, which places us all in with the popular kids, movers and shakers. heh. The Euro did not have this two proper cycles ago so... it could be nuanced and fake. However, given to this year's shenanigans? wouldn't be shocker either.

Another 1.19" overnight brings April up to 4.04".

Forgot about that warm stretch in April 23 where BDL hit 92/96.

"Best case "scenario as things stand right now is strong...worse case is SSSSUUUPPPEERRR which may obliterate winter in the east. Perhaps on the scale of winter 25-26 in the west. And great point regarding the potential implications well beyond winter 26-27.

Have you considered the possibility that it may never snow again south of Bridgeport, CT if we get another super El Nino?

Clear sunrise, but sudden fog in Fairfax City.

Upper ocean heat is getting off to a record start for March. So the model forecasts of an ONI getting above +2.0° would make sense if the El Niño continues on a similar trajectory into June past the spring forecast barrier. This could be the first ONIs above 2.0° only 3 years apart which could have major ramifications for the global climate well beyond what happens next winter. Since we never had this rapid a global temperature increase over such a short period. With the big temperature jump in 2023-2024 the CONUS has had the #1 warmest winter in 2023-2024 and the #2 warmest winter in 2025-2026. Plus all the record warm winters following the 2015-2016 El Niño.

Euro is still a little wedgy up here Wed. Hopefully the gfs wins that.

Door and breeze potential next week for a couple of days but overall looks nice.

Well that’s CT

1982 would actually be a best-case scenario assuming a super El Nino, and may be a favored outcome considering the recent flip to more -WPO in the northern Pacific. It was mild, but had essentially normal snowfall throughout the northeast. I don't mean like 2015, which was good in the mid Atlantic due to one storm, but still sucked in the northeast.

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter

I'll get you something today.

Min 32.9° 2023, 2012, and 2010 were pretty warm early off the top of my head.

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm. My largest fear is some El nino/cool ENSO bastard-child, along the lines of 2023 that won't pop a se trough.

RDU picked up 0.09” on Sunday last week but that was the only measurable rain this month. If models hold and no additional rain is recorded this would move April 2026 into the second driest month ever recorded, behind 0.06” from October 2000.

A report from Campbell Hall from Mar 1-3, 2018 would be helpful. I feel like im walking in the dark in some areas with such an extreme snowfall gradient

Definitively have not seen a week stretch like this in mid April any time I can recall. Awesome.

Hopefully everyone takes advantage of the nice weather this weekend and installs.

70’s and 80’s most of next week

Open up the pools.

I usually check the GFS full run every morning and don't think I've ever seen a completely dry run. Insane. Euro is nearly completely dry too I have to believe by May we will be starting to see a pattern change

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C.

The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative