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Looking forward to a few gfs runs of our “hurricane up the bay” scenario over the next day or two.

Euro says what tropical system. It will be interesting to watch this play out.

This coupled with the 12 Euro, which is way south and breaks up a weak system over Hispanola, means landfall odds have increased this afternoon (both for the Caribbean and Conus). Still no reason to be concerned just yet as we watch the windshield wiper effect.

miami or bust

v low grade pisser today

So not rooting for Hugo 2.0?

GFS wants to ease the dry conditions bringing the remnants of a tropical system up the the lower great lakes region. Would certainly help out with the drought in the Ohio region assuming the fantasy land GFS is at all accurate.

Okay, then let's just take the timeframe since 1960 since it probably has better data. If that's the case then in that 66 year data set, Pennsylvania has had its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 10th, 13th, and 14th warmest June-Julys since 2005. Only one year in that timeframe has cracked the top 28 coolest June-Julys, 2009 (which is tied as 1st coolest) Nobody said anything about being scared here we're in a thread that in part is focused on predicting the upcoming temperatures for the winter months. It's important to remind ourselves that given current trends, warmer than average months are far outpacing colder than average ones. Betting on colder than normal is a losing battle, with recent reprieves like August 2025 becoming increasingly rare. While we're on the topic of winter, in that same 66 year (as you suppose, more accurate) data set with less filled in blanks, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 11th warmest winters for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2002. So 8 winters cracking the top 12 warmest, while in that time only 3 winters have cracked the top 12 coldest. It's easy to tell why qg_omega and snowman bet on warm winters nearly every year nowadays, by an ever-increasing margin, they are right. The winter chill of many here's youths is becoming increasingly infrequent

Well, as can happen, it's now looking like a 1-day heatwave on Saturday with highs in the Philly area in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, so definitely summery, plus potential showers and t-storms just in time for our son's 4:30 pm wedding ceremony, which is planned to be outdoors (there is an indoor fallback). Too bad he didn't pick Sunday like I recommended a year ago to avoid the conflict with the RU game on Saturday, lol. As expected 4 days out the models are all over the place with regard to timing/location of storms and the NWS just has the usual chance of showers due to instability surrounding the frontal progression. Might be one of those "watch the radar and the sky" afternoons. Any insights appreciated, thanks.

12Z UKMET: N of 0Z…aiming for just N of Leewards NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.8N 43.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.09.2025 96 13.8N 43.4W 1012 25 0000UTC 08.09.2025 108 13.9N 46.1W 1011 28 1200UTC 08.09.2025 120 13.9N 48.8W 1010 28 0000UTC 09.09.2025 132 14.3N 51.3W 1009 31 1200UTC 09.09.2025 144 15.6N 53.6W 1010 32 0000UTC 10.09.2025 156 16.8N 56.0W 1010 32 1200UTC 10.09.2025 168 17.8N 58.6W 1010 34

Oh God please let it be so. Don’t want anyone killed or injured just want a big storm

I'm all for it. I think we'll have a lot of fun tracking to do.

Yeah at this juncture I have doubts as well, however, just enough in place to keep me a bit intrigued. Once this is able to develop and organize and where we see the center we'll have a substantially better idea of what to expect long-term.

That wave coming off further south likely saved it from SAL and getting ripped apart by the TUTT. I’m still deeply skeptical it’ll make the trek across the basin but kind of as I expected, the steering pattern is becoming more conducive again for EC potential as we move into mid-September. Edit to add: This is where I’d perk up if we had homebrew off the EC or even moreso if it came out of the Caribbean.

Well, once the savior of the world gig predictably fails, she can get a job working for Dutch Boy paints.

Been years since the clipper game was around.

models not too excited on the snow prospects, think this record holds

I meant it more when the dryness begins in August and goes through the foliage season. Last year I went to that area on October 20th. When I went into the Fort Montgomery Museum and asked about the color, they said the drought ruined their foliage.

Low max temp records will probably fall today up my way. A cursory check shows records in the low-mid 50's from 1926.

One big change to notice as well is how much farther south this is being modeled. Pretty substantial really. If that front doesn't capture the system there would be a path towards the coast.

I'm currently in Clearfield. Definitely color up here. I was expecting that here, but Huntingdon is basically Kentucky climate-wise so seeing any color in late August was a bit of a shock. Cats are getting bulky already. They did that last year around this time and at least around here, the winter was kinda rough from December until February. Stayed cold until Spring but didn't get much snow. Seeing a lot of folks saying the winter is going to be backloaded this year and the clipper should return. I may be back up this way in a month or so just in time to deal with it.

You should probably flush the toilet.