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Just south of Fredericksburg here. We sometimes miss these but usually are in a good spot. Just far south enough to get the moisture and just far north enough to get all snow.

I haven't talked a ton about the d10-15 today, but modeling is MUCH colder with it. The 18z GFS is frigid. Its ensemble isn't much warmer. The EPS at 12 was cold. I think the MJO juice has made it to the deterministic models and their accompanying ensembles @Daniel Boone! The juice is loose!

You relegated the half-n-half to a bottom shelf -- yeah you're doing it right! 33 and dropping; hoping for some Dec. 5 magic

Interesting.... 23z HRRR with the heaviest totals just south of DC.

This is a true sentiment. I guess what I was getting at was that 24/25 of the past Decembers have been in that second camp, some bolstered by the fact that they do not need to be as cold as December 2017 to see prolific winter conditions. I agree with you on the last part. Cold and snowy times are already an infrequent part of an infrequent season. We deserve to enjoy the times where winter shows its true hand.

38.8 here with a dewpoint of 25.3. Hoping for a surprise but not expecting much.

Meh, nothing I said isn’t factually true. It’s been brutal. The cold without snow is soul crushing

Like that profile pic!

My bad, that was the 18z NAM 3k. Was on mobile and thought I clicked to HRRR but the screen somehow reset. I’ll edit my post.

If you live 20 miles south of DC, you will LOVE the HRRR.

We are such a wasteful region

?

Not a flake here yet, but looking at radar that maybe getting ready to change. Maybe just maybe 32 degrees

Generally seems wetter than the HRRR depiction which helps us all out even south id think. I’m just praying I don’t get stuck between bands!

23z HRRR might be showing what Terpeast is alluding to... there's a heavy band about 25 miles south of DC.

Dude, he’s having a kid. Do your homework. Just playing with you.

If radar trends hold, yes

Nasty shit man

The latest HRRR was one of the snowier models. Are you implying a boom is in the cards?

Well I’m no statistician…but that’s still 2out of 3 that aren’t all that cold/wintry. I think that’s more the point. Sometimes they are…more times they aren’t. Let’s enjoy this wintry one.

I just compared radar with the 18z 3k NAM sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

Wow, the other counties are really dragging their feet with this one…

I vote we just put everything in here.

Well, forecast was updated about 20 minutes ago, right there on the edge of WSW criteria -

18z Eps has a few interesting members. 12z had 1