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Yes, it freaking does.

80° / 52° not too shabby.

Fungal disease apparently https://news.wsu.edu/press-release/2023/12/12/christmas-tree-scientists-work-to-identify-manage-grinchy-fungal-foes/

Thank you, everyone. Wish I could find his posts about politics. May not have wanted to read the ones about me. LOL

I got a good half inch last night, though as has been the case, a couple miles away got double that. Hopefully we get a repeat tonight.

Shows how sharp cutoffs can be in this area. I live pretty much dead even between NYC and Philly, and that same 7 year average here is 22.375" or pretty much 8" more than NYC and JFK. My worst stretch here was 96/97 through 01/02 (6 years), the average was only 17.3". 8 out of the 10 years in the 90s were complete trash as well. Those 8 years averaged only 17", but 93/94 and 95/96 bumped the decade average up to 27" since those 2 were amazing winters. 08/09-14/15 averaged 41.6", which is my best stretch here. Way too many sweeping generalizations get posted in here.

Very nice, looks like a cool little spot. Always nice to escape the heat up that way. Go another 10-15 miles north and you'd be at my buddy's cabin. Have fun! Congrats on the grandson! That has to be so exciting to get to relive those phases of life. The years really do fly by, still can't believe ours are already 3 and 5. It's amazing and sad all at the same time watching them grow up. It just swells your heart.

I could argue up to 112 mph if @dendrite's coops are well built and get swept away. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/1.html

Maybe another microburst in the same area that got smoked Sunday

I've never seen anything like that widespread mortality. No sign of a surface fire (little fir with thin bark, very susceptible). No idea what happened; most fir death is from something like balsam wooly adelgid and that almost never attacks trees so small. 46 this morning, TD about 10° higher than yesterday but still shy of the stickies. Four consecutive mostly sunny days in July is a rare occurrence here.

Not your classic sounding for supercellular tornadoes for sure. BUT if you keep an eye on that 0-3 km shear value, if we can keep it near 30 kt it may be enough for QLCS brief tornadoes. That's really going to be most of our tornado cases anyway. We don't get the long, looping hodographs unless it's 6/1/11 and you have hot dogs to sell.

I wonder if we get screwed by that feature which moves through in the morning and it results in just isolated activity later in the afternoon. A pretty pronounced wind shift occurs in the morning and we turn sfc winds more westerly (probably why this dropped the TOR area). But yeah I was just looking at some bufkit soundings and there is enough hail CAPE for the strongest of cores to have a shot.

Why do you guys keep taking the bait from this troll? He's doing actual harm to humanity stealing away people's time and mental bandwidth like this.

I mean the RAP forecast FZL for like FIT is near 16,000 ft. So very warm, but just looking at the shape of CAPE, there is enough there in the growth zone. Kind of like what we had Sunday up here. It was a lower FZL, but it was mostly big drops with pennies and dimes mixed in.

Condolences, John, the world is a less bright place with the passing of your father. Miss the dad jokes already.

So sorry for your loss. I thoroughly enjoyed reading his posts and interactions over the years. My thoughts and condolences to you and your family.

Boooo 12z took away the tornado area and also added a small corridor for hail...not sure we have any hail potential given how crazy warm it is aloft. Maybe far NNE with early developing cells

I am truly sorry to learn of your father’s passing. He was a very good person who helped make this place special. May he rest in peace and may his memory always brighten the world.

Sounds awesome, and yeah, remebering how quickly our kids grew up, I can only imagine how much faster it'll go w/ grandkids. You are lucky to have so much time with your little ones...hoping the same here.

Definitely! If CM1 missed this one (Reno), it likely can't resolve tornadoes unless (maybe) you beef up the model specs. The amount of resources to even run that simulation still gets me... A quarter of a trillion grid points, for a 42 minute simulation (time steps = 0.2s), that spans an area of ~5,600 miles^2 (~6x size of RI), and it took their cluster 3 days to run. That's crazy. Imagine running that for the entire U.S.?

Always appreciated what he brought to this forum. RIP.

I’m sorry for your loss. Your dad was aces high in my book. He was very proud of you and often posted articles about you. He’s been here since before I came around in 2009. What a life he led. I can’t imagine this place without him. Rest in peace jburns. You will be missed.

The current 7 year stretch through 2025 is lowest on record at both JFK and NYC. JFK is currently at 14.5” which is lower than the previous record of 15.6” ending in 1976 and 15.8” in 1992. NYC is at 14.9” which comes in below the previous 7 year lows in 15.4 from 1933 and 16.3” in 1992. The highest 7 year max for JFK was 34.5” in 2016 with NYC setting their record high at 41.0”.

That’s awesome - congrats!!

Cancer freaking sucks. So sorry for your loss. He will be missed.