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Turrible. Just turrible.

Belle 1976 without looking at anyone elses posts

Let me clarify by saying that when I say it doesn't happen often I'm talking primarily of snows that are warning-level (5"+ And I'm only speaking of the cities (i.e. BWI) not so much N&W. I can't remember but maybe a couple of hits over the last 30 years or so. Now admittedly...what I don't know how to do is how to isolate Feb 20th-28th and last week of December to see just what fell each year. What's the best way to do that? I'm more than willing to take time to put the stats together I just don't know how. I need to see how many snowfalls over 5" we've gotten the last week of December and the last week of February AT BWI. And btw I'm not at all talking about March. We got 5" there several years ago.

Eskimo Joe says he would prefer it be -30

and @CoastalWx it's funny because i made a comment when i did the 2nd update in late Jan to the seasonal snowfall that S/SE Essex county was in a massive snow hole and probably had the biggest deficit of snowfall to date in SNE. It's almost as if mother nature saw this and was like welp lemme fill in that hole and even it out, but then went wayyy over board and now they're a snow bubble there, not a hole. Pretty wild. Rockport to Marblehead just got smoked after Jan 20th.

The Canadian ensembles might be the northern outliers now, while the EPS did a sharper cave back to consensus.

Pretty much all done with the snow/sleet pack down here.

We’ve dropped off… it’s been hovering in the 10-15th range since 1954 the past week or so. We were still top-5 after the big storm, but wind packing and Arctic cold dropped depths a bit right when other years pumped up. Good snowfall this afternoon on the upslope flow. Been around 1”/hr past 2-3 hours.

If it’s not gonna snow then it can be warm.

Yes, I don't think there is any one model that is currently more superior to the others, enough to trust on an island. Maybe the AI ones get there at some point. I'm just glad the Euro pulled the rug cleanly at 12z, rather than stringing some along painfully like late January.

It has been done.

The real problem is the propensity to lock on to whatever model has the snowiest solutions. We’ve seen it like 10 times this year. I love how each failed storm, we get a nice write up about why shitty model x,y,z is best to handle this and the other models Ill trend towards it. And as usual, it never happens. the euro had almost no support and completely gagged the solution away in one cycle. It shouldn’t be surprising to people that the only model showing a certain outcome was very likely wrong. We are turning a seasonal corner whether people want to admit that or not.

I get the game. It a high reward/low risk gamble he's playing..but imagine it does comes back. To him, its worth the glory in the face of all the naysayers.

What's wrong with saying something in a way that's less insulting?

I will never forget in late March 1983 or 82 when we got 8 inches of snow or so in Wilson, NC. No way you can 100% say winter weather is over in NC/Upstate and VA. I know that is a long shot but come on. Certainly not 100% over!

Spine crusher ongoing right now, seems focused on the western slopes and peaks along the MRV

Why get the lawnmower tuned up.. it's only February.. It's gonna get cold again and grass won't even grow till later in March lol a lil warm up and people think springs coming lol

Well played, looks like they deleted their comments LOL. Looks like fun!

I agree with some of this. But to be fair NWS doesn't issue 10-15 day forecasts. They issue general guidance like "likely to be above normal, or above or below normal precip" it's private sector agencies and people issuing daily specific forecasts at those ranges and yes its just to get hits and publicity not to make good forecasts. I like tracking threat windows. SO it's wroth it to me to glance at long range stuff once in a while to identify if there are any legit opportunities coming. But if you need to have a detailed forecast like "today it's going to 34 degrees with 3-5" of snow" no that kind of thing can't be made outside a few days. That isn't what looking at the long range is useful for. And if someone doesn't find it useful or worth their time to simply identify general pattern trends...they don't have to look. No one is forcing anyone to waste their time looking at day 15 ensemble means. lol

The CMC is all we got. I've got a decent track record for threads so maybe I can carry that on to this storm. It's four days out now so might as well separate this from the LR thread*. We need a lot of luck to make this happen. Prayers will be needed but they will not be enough. May the odds be ever in our favor! *mods may delete this if they deem fit

Hit this…

What's your season ranking at the stake? I remember at one point in early winter it was #1

@MJO812 lmao you got bamboozled and hoodwinked, saw that coming from a mile away. AIs were never on board

Suns out, guns out. Get those lawnmowers tuned up. Crocus bloom watch.