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we don't need a ku; they are rare anyway. we just would like some events. 3-6 is fine.

Never mind the outcome, verbatim… That’s what I’m kind of looking for for something other than a glancing blow… Something that will give us at least a couple of chances.

Bitter Cold. The night before had single digit cold. Temps were b/w 15-20 degrees for most of the storm.

One of these is eventually going to give my kids the kind of storm I talk about from growing up in nj in the late 70s early 80s. Ready the phasers Captain! .

So pretty much between the 15th and 20th haha

I'll take this look any day, progressive for sure but we will not be lacking for cold. Mid month onwards is looking great and honestly getting better as we get closer in time. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2026010812/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png gets even better imo after that but that's fantasy land.

OK, this 12z euro run is exactly what you hope to see if you want something conducive. Look at that ridge over the West Coast right into Alaska. You don’t have that stupid nagging trough over Alaska That’s kicking down the ridge and just shitting on us all the time. That pokes right up into Santa‘s fanny. That’s what you want. Whether it happens or not, who knows.

What were the temperatures in the city and Long Island during blizzard 96?

Roll cloud action in Burlington CT! PXL_20260108_181252868.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dng

Fun look on the Euro in fantasy range. Has a good PNA spike before it collapses a bit due to another shortwave crashing into the PNW (part of the same PAC flow issues we've been dealing with for a few years) but there's all kinds of potential here (verbatim it all comes together well to our NE).

Of course. WPO-/EPO- can force cold outcomes even with a positive AO and NAO. But if one is referring only to the general AO/NAO state, positive states are typically warmer, not colder regardless of ENSO. Other variables weren’t noted.

I mean my goodness. .

It's light, but the 12z EURO snows in the area on the: 15th 16th 18th 19th 20th

The high-end advisory consolation that Scott referenced. I think that's the realistic ceiling here.

Ahh see the euro is another solution that might work and kind of deliver something high-end advisory, low and warning. It actually meanders the cut off down south so that the confluence weekends north of New England after day seven and allows a weak low to come up the coast and bring some snow. Then the trough sharpens in the plains and perhaps tries to deliver something after that timeframe.

Another close miss! The pieces are there. Just need them to connect

I know the models aren't showing much verbatim at the moment, but we must score at some point in this upcoming pattern right? Nearly all the pieces are there, PNA, vortex placement, some moderate blocking (maybe), southern stream energy/moisture? Not saying the "big one" is a lock, but chances seem more than decent for a coastal that gives us the goods.

He is never going to be able to reconcile his version of reality with the fact that he was wrong. I'll tell you exactly what he'll do...he's going to to say something to the effect of "see, the storm formed, but it tracked a bit too far east".

Oh boy. The Euro might be setting up for glory on the second storm.

Ok, WB 12Z Fantasy Snow Map at Day 12 to brighten the mood. Best EURO run in awhile....

GFS was actually a weenie run. Snow on snow on snow after the 14th.

euro trying, there's multiple phasing and waves running up the east coast. it isn't just one and done. We gotta be patient with this one

I'd call that ECM run a step towards the ICON. Much needed for morale. It would be great to see more ensemble support as well.

Some hits showing up on the 12z Euro today. The KU-or-bust folks will still be searching though.

like vibe coding, wonder when it'll be vibe forecasting/modeling. Just feed the ai voice prompt whatever positive b.s. and it'll pump out a blizzard