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Not the worst spot for the GEFS to be at D6-7

Of course, it is 150 hours out. The Ukie is 250 miles off the South Carolina coast. If anyone acts like they know a damn, they are lying.

Just keep it active, The chips will fall.

I think he may be doing us a favor by not including us in those maps.

Bittinger and Frostburg mesonet sites showing a flip to westerly winds. Looks like the front is starting to crest the Eastern Continential Divide. Here's hoping we don't torch into the 70s prefrontal.

Please also include eastern lower MI on those maps

LOL at the end of that run trying to form a Hudson Bay block....that would probably produce all sorts of craziness. That's actually how Dec 19-20, 1995 happened.

Gang is returning

12z GFS really tries to see something up around the 5th, 8th, and 10th. If we can't score at least climo snowfall then we'll need a regional exorcism.

Shorts and low 60s.

Ukie is very weak

Semi violent gfs run

The 12z GEFS ensembles arent terrible imo...

Gefs

It's like watching commercials for Vegas when everybody wins on every spin!

ICON also joined the party

Gfs with vodka cold next weekend (GGEM agrees), then a clipper goes Miller B for a high ratio powder storm. Lol

Yeah, probably low Dp at onset. Hopefully we get a stronger push of cold with the follow-up System the 2nd. As is, a rain to snow in upper Valley at the end. If Models are correct, Northern VA and much of West Virginia are going to get buried. Much of Kentucky looks to get a good amount as well.

On the live webcam from mount Washington there were some cool looking clouds around 645 am.. not sure when this is from

A reminder for those who have incorrectly stated that we had nothing to track early last winter...

GFS already corrected north and it's likely not done. Cimo favors the interior heavily. Catskills and Poconos should get a really nice event.

AIFS scorecard over operational (blue=improvement). Ryan Torn suggested that systematic under performance at 50mb was because the NWP models it's train on aren't actually very good at simulating the physics of the stratosphere, so it's learning incorrect conclusions and then applying them in full force.

Agree with most of this, but think the second half of December could be interesting. The 2-3rd threat is real, but id favor NW of both of us for plowable snows at this stage. If we can thread the needle and squeeze out 4-8 inches that would be awesome, but those mild early Dec ocean temps are going to be working against us. Still worth keeping an eye on though.

And the ukie aka crazy uncle squashed the 12/2 threat at 12z