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Buckle up. We get it into April.

What are your thoughts on the SST profile in the NW Atlantic, North Central Atlantic outside of the MJO, QBO and strat in regards to the appearence of the warm, cold, warm tripole shown in this image below ? ( - NAO ) Is it significant, or will it change in a week or two and be meaningless ?

CFS is wacky. It also has a huge ENSO bias. Notice that it runs 4 times a day, that run cited above was 12z today, different from 6z. A few weeks ago they had 90% of the country below average on the 12z run, then the 18z run had 95% of the country above average. I've seen 5-6 runs this year where it had the PNW <-30F for December 2025.. Now long range models are showing a +PNA to start Dec and a ridge going up the west coast or just west of it. The CFS had the same thing last year (-30F in the NW for Dec), and last Dec was +PNA.

Everyone I talk to is already sick of all the windy weather days.

Mod snow fat flakes now

Firat accumulation of the year ground starting to whiten!!!!!!

If the peak is Nov 25-30, history says strong -NAO correlation, based around Dec 30 - Jan 4.

18z GEFS hr384

Agree completely Carvers. Hopefully the Ec Weeklies are just going on lagging the MJO in warm Phases. As you alluded to, sometimes an SSW can foul up a good pattern for us so, may be that too. Models tend to go wonky before one too so, may be that too.

Long range models around the turn of the month are wanting to develop some kind of 500mb low north of Hawaii, +PNA under the -EPO/-WPO. There really no sign of a RNA pattern. That's why I think the 3-4 week CPC outlook put out today, Euro weeklies, and seasonal monthlies for Dec (CFS, CanSips) are wrong having the cold in the Upper Midwest, and a SE ridge, above average in the SE, US, and average in the Mid Atlantic. MJO could be holding strength going into 7-8-1 around the 1st half of December, and I think it's a below average temperature pattern everywhere east of the Rockies, at least for the 1st half of the month.

The West Coast low pressure area has already brought 1.25"-5.0" to San Francisco, 3.0" (3.0 feet?) to the Sierra Nevadas, and 0.3" to Los Angeles. There's much more to come for southern California and the desert. It's kicking the ridge in the middle of the country. Today, Fort Collins was back to 70-75, 75 in Denver, and over 80 in Kansas.

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

We’re definitely getting used to winning Super Bowls.

I don't give a crap about the Canadian warming later in the month, say what you want, I just like the pretty colors.

2021 was a complete non-winter. Hope this year doesn't replicate that.

Bretton Woods opens tomorrow. Can’t wait!

May need to go to bathrooms. It’s a concrete structure.

Probably threading wind advisory criteria early Saturday for Noon-10PM Sunday, 45-50 MPH gusts. Minor impact except air travel and where a wind blown branch crosses the road. Slot looks BGM-MPO through NYC-LI.

Can you shelter under bleachers ?

Flakes at the soccer field

Slim with the tilted brim?

72 here today. MLI missed the record by a few degrees with a 73.

CFS for December is lit! Advocating above normal precip and below normal temps. That can only mean ONE THING! We torch for the first two days of the month and rain like heck, then flip to cold and dry while the weenies cry.

I think it will be better than January.

February may not be a lost month this winter either.