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I will give the EPS weeklies credit for starting to pick up on March 2012 record warmth during mid-February. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/ecmwf-weekly-maps/

It looks like the places to the nw thought to get screwed are actually the jackpot. Reminds me of a normal winter lol. I'm glad the desert regions are getting nailed. We definitely didn't need that band over my area this morning.

https://phys.org/news/2025-09-climate-deaths-europe-summer.html

CAG system late September to early October timeframe would be a very likely scenario.

0.8” so far. Huge win for Euro AI. Locked in from 7-8 days out and didn’t waver. Took the physics based models to the woodshed.

With 0.15* I have more rain than I've had since 8/21. If I can get to 0.58" then it would equal my total since July 21st. The drought hammer looks to continue putting its foot on our neck through September Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed.

Here's hoping the tables on the dry weather get turned in time for winter.

Portions of the Northeast could see more drought expansion with the update tomorrow.

A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again.

If we have another winter where there’s repeated suppressed to hell storms and cirrus IMBY I’ll just have to laugh. Hopefully there can be some outcome where the South can be happy and get snow and here but it’s highly unlikely.

Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.

Anomalies of that magnitude will never be adequately signaled in long term guidance....obviously given CC said anomalies are usually warm rather than cold these days.

Never had this many days of significant radiational cooling in a row since I’ve moved here in 2015. The conditions have also been so suitable to radiate that we hit the dewpoint before midnight and continue slowly dropping to sunrise. Overnight radiational fog has been a regularity right at the surface. It’s a common desert phenomenon that sustains vegetation; it’s doing wonders for my young grass and grass seed. The vegetation around here generally doesn’t reflect the severe lack of rain thanks to this; it looks more mild to moderate…

Yup, we are reduced to waiting for the weekly drought monitor for weather excitement. Should see an expansion of the red area.

I think we'll see a month that is decidedly positive.

0.94” here definitely over performed hrrr was out to lunch

Radar not looking impressive. Probably waves of mist on stiff easterly wind for the most part here.

If one is looking for an idea of the warmest potential for any winter (month, season, or year) in the current climate regime (defined as the most recent 30 periods e.g. winters), one can come up with confidence intervals from a linear regression equation. A 1-in-1,000 year probability for the current regime would be the 99.9% confidence interval. For NYC, that value for a winter mean temperature is currently 44.8° (record is 41.6°, in 2001-02). The coefficient of determination for NYC is 0.545. Recently, though, some cities have seen months or even seasons breach this threshold e.g., July 2023 in Phoenix.

46.0° Should be an exciting drought monitor tomorrow.

45F for the low, drought continues...where was this nice weather in the spring!

Friday could be the warmest day at JFK since 8-25 since we are finally getting an offshore flow. Moderate dewpoints and steep low level lapse rates. So mid 80s are possible from the forecast soundings.

Poolesville mesonet site has recorded nearly 1" of rain in the past 24 hours, yet the 4" soil moisture values have barely moved. Plants must really be soaking things up.

Low of 57 with a very solid .53” in the gauge. Could really hear it coming down through the night at times.

43F for the overnight low here BOS at -2.2F MTD ORH up to -0.8F should be AN soon