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Everyone is whacking it to the cold, but at the end of the day, the MJO still hasn't spent much time in the phases conducive for east coast phasing/major cyclogensis..it's largely been either null and void, or in the MC, which is what I forecast in my outlook. That should improve somewhat later...

The second blizzard in 1978 was in February, that storm dropped another 16" at my house. That was an epic east coast bomb that obliterated New England. I think Philly did well with that one, while the one in January targeted the mountain regions. 1978 was the first big winter in my lifetime, and outside of the blizzard of 1983 (I was a senior in high school) was the only real winter excitement during my entire childhood. Those were some very lean years...big snows when I was a kid were of the 3-5" variety most winters. I'm done reminiscing.

I don’t want to have to chase, never did, but this year is the year I would do it. Hope not.

Since it looks like temperatures will go above freezing with this next system, I cored the snowpack for liquid here at our stie in the valley for this morning’s CoCoRaHS report. Our snowpack currently contains 2.42” of liquid, which is the highest I’ve recorded so far this season. We’ve really only had a couple of notably warm storms, since maybe all the way back to some point in November? And those events either minimally degraded the snowpack here or resulted in a net gain in snowpack liquid equivalent. And with the deep snowpack in the mountains, they easily just incorporated any of that liquid for a net gain. We saw how much liquid was in the Mansfield snowpack from PF’s report a few weeks ago (12 to 14 inches), so it’s got to be even more than that now. It should be interesting to see how things go with this next system based on the most recent modeling.

did you not know how weather works before today? Some username....

I think it's a combination of that AND the predominate MC forcing directing what opportunities for phasing there are, west and east of this region. That MC forcing is a Deconstructive influence on NE US phasing, which coupled with the overall trend for less phasing is BAD news for us. I'm confident the MC forcing will shift eventually...it's the overall trend for somewhat less phasing that probably won't. Least of all, there is some bad luck, too...but the majority is more than that.

How come you never post anything to support your claims ? In addition using that model past 5 - 7 days is at your own risk.........

yup...sometimes you just need to swing to the fences

You're missing PDO cycle in the right part of its 6-10 year cycle and being in a solar minimum! Oh and for Ji to approve of the risk from the time it shows up 384 hrs out on the OP GFS...easy stuff to be honest?

This sort of hearkens back to the comments I made a month or so ago. There's a pretty clear leitmotif over recent decade(s) that basically boils down to this statement: The atmosphere can't seem to sustain cold without shearing disruption and/or negative interference. When ever it relaxes ... the bounce backs tend to be too warm. There's no attempt at subversion of CC into this idea ... it is what it is whether that's a part, or not. Anyway, even if that's just 40 ... 30% increased in circumstances, that's a pretty big chunk of standard frequency storm numbers lost to discord, which then means over the longer haul our probabilities are weighting down.

I don't mean to imply that a weaker RONI is never good anymore...it absolutely can be, but you have to analyze the ENTIRE hemisphere...especially the western Pacific, in order to contextualize ENSO, and discern what exactly the RONI indicator is trying to convey. It's a forecasting tool intended to bridge the gap between yesterday and today's climate...misuse it at your own peril.

Low of 34. Looks like the rain is indeed cutting back on the forecasted highs for saturday, as I'm now down to 51. Maybe Friday will pop with a bit of early clearing. After starting this stretch of warmth ~4 degrees BN, MDT will end it ~4 degrees AN. Then things turn "interesting" again.

Hey, I would take a Kyle Schwarber pattern in a second after this Pokey Reese stretch we've been in. I'd rather roll the dice with some higher end storms vs cold/dry - C-2", cutter, rinse wash repeat.

You have a great memory. I have pretty vivid memories of the blizzard, it was the first time in my life that bushes in our front yard were completely buried. I honestly have little to no memory of the first 2 storms that week.

Right...it had a weaker expression in the hemisphere because it was partially masked by a competing MC influence, which is NOT favorable.

Glad you have those records from way back!

Obviously, I was still fairly young in 1978 but I suspect that if I was a little older, that week might have been my best week of winter weather and not the weeks in 2010 or 1996.

That’s the only solution that works. The core is almost there with Keyshawn, Sarr and tre. Adding this Trae as a true point guard will help but it better not be this year!

Only +1.50 as per the OND peak: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Yes, read the excerpt I just posted above.

After 23-24 I feel like most posters here would rather take their chances with a decently +PDO if we have to deal with a stronger Nino. The -PDO with the mc forcing seemed to make things worse for sure.

Given how I think the upcoming pattern is all about phasing potential, we're likely going to see some wild swings within OP solutions. What we want to continue seeing is either northern stream energy continuing to amplify or timing of northern/southern stream to be enough to yield potential for a phase as we get closer. Usually in these patterns or setups I don't focus too much on SLP output because whether a storm is shown is dependent on the phase. It's definitely an intriguing look but as Scott said it isn't perfect so its best to go through with caution.

1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be. The blizzard of 1978 was very unique in that snow totals were highest in NW PA and lowest in Philly. Uncommon for huge east coast storms.

Makes you wonder if we will ever see anything like 2014-2015 again due to that pesky MC forcing. Then again, February 2015 was generationally cold here and rivaled January 1977 in terms of anomalies (-15), so it would be tough to repeat that even without the warming.

ah.. sorry. I zone out usually after dark - unless there's something really going on