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At least Black Friday is trending colder and colder

I don’t dislike the Euro for next weekend at all. .

Yeah it's 75-80 east of the Blue Ridge today even. SER is strong the next few weeks. Hopefully it decides to go on vacation until March

Exactly the same amount here.

We’ve generally had at least respectable winters in the recent +TNH years.

Hopefully, that'll expand East. It appears they're starting to correct from the Trough continuing in the SW. That's really showing the SER Print, lol

Topped out about 40 here, nice sunny day. Now getting a few mood flakes, not sure how since it's still pretty warm out. Hoping for a December 07 repeat here but avoid the massive January (I think) cutter that pretty much wiped out pack almost out

Which Ensembles ? Just looked at the 12Z GEFS and we have only a couple days of cold outbreaks then when the storm approaches it cuts because of the southeast ridge and no blocking through the 1st week of DEC

EPS is cold To end. That’s a massive vortex in Canada. Would be nice to get some NAO ridging.

At least snowpack should build in the Midwest the next few weeks..

That back edge in view from Treehouse

Negative to neutral NAO and PNA to just cooperate.

Need Neg NAO and that all important strong HP in southeast Canada anchored and a weakening of the southeast ridge - storms will cut west of us before this happens........seems like this is repeated here every year over and over - we all know the routine...........

Several things: 1) There remains a lot of uncertainty how the stratospheric warming will propagate. Propagation could be a big factor in prolonging/strengthening or bringing back Atlantic blocking. 2) Even as stratospheric warming often (not always) propagates favorably to build or prolong/strengthen Atlantic blocking, one should not immediately dismiss hints of evidence to the contrary. Confirmation bias is bad for forecasting. Such evidence exists e.g., here's the AO forecast from the EPS 46-day forecast: Although the below table talks about considering climate change-related impacts on forecasts, I highlighted the section that relates to how and why confirmation bias skews forecasts: A systematic forecasting framework allows one to acknowledge such evidence while avoiding rash decisions from model noise. As I don't have a crystal ball to have 100% confidence in whether or not the above AO forecast will verify, I have made a note to continue to monitor developments. Needless to say, there is more to it than such a framework. Each scenario has clusters of outcomes (not discussed above). It should be noted that such frameworks don't guarantee accuracy, but they do reduce the risks that can otherwise lead to bad forecasts, especially when one is dealing with timeframes over which model skill is limited or worse. Finally, the 11/22 12z guidance has reaffirmed the December 1-10 idea. Indeed, more than half of the 11/22 0z EPS ensembles suggested 1" or more snow in Detroit and Toronto (a good signal for measurable snow prospects from this far out). I expect those figures to hold up with the 12z cycle.

Its not guaranteed but the signals are looking good. Ensembles are still showing a favorable pattern. Op runs will still flip flop

Starting when? Favorable for cold outbreaks is a guarantee - Snowstorms are not a guarantee YET IMO ......Need blocking to set up

Exactly

As we know, there’s a multitude of ways it can fail (our recent history says it will), but you have to admire the look at least.

Depressing but informative .

Yes there is, the AO looks to go positive but it's only temporary then return negative or neutral state within the next two weeks. The weeklies also keep an negative EPO which did well last winter. I also don't think we are losing a negative EPO as all forecasts have it diving deeply negative some even have it below -4 sigma.

The 12z Euro deterministic also kicks out the energy out of the Southwest. The EPS is a little slower to do so, but I am going to guess it does the same. Both the 12z GEFS and EPS have a formidable cold look now. The SER flexes are short lived. Just file this one away for later used. I would say 75% chance that what we saw yesterday was feedback across all modeling. It caused havoc downstream from that. I would suggest modeling in the d8-14 is still in the process of correcting.

I always have hard time realizing that people are illogical. It like really evokes some nasty stuff when warm forecasts are mentioned, for what I would say is a majority.

Actually the 12z GEFS looks completely different from the 0z EPS over the N. Pacific. It actually has a trough in the gulf of alaska where the EPS has a ridge. EPS has been doing better so far, but it's an interesting split. I would guess the 2 models are handling the MJO differently?

There is a lag

The 12z Euro has correct as well. Storms are kicking out of the Southwest as one would expect. Now that modeling is getting that fixed, we should see some downstream corrections. I would expect for something to track pretty soon.