All Activity

We agree that the absolute 3.4 temp has been blowing away its record since summer on OISST. But a portion of that difference from prior records is obviously due to the globe being near its warmest on record: -Avg trop ocean warming since 1997 is ~0.6C. So, without any of that warming, 2026 OISST would still be warmer going back to Sep 1st. But the diff would be ~0.6 smaller. -Avg warming since 1982 ~~0.8C. So, it would still be warmer than 82 w/o the GW since then but would be ~0.8 smaller diff. -It has warmed ~0.3C since ‘15. So, even after taking into acct GW, it would still be blowing away ‘15. -It is pulverizing ‘23 as that was a much weaker Nino at this point vs the other 3 and there’s been some GW since then. -Also, keep in mind that cyclonicwx’s OISST graph has been ~0.4 warmer than NOAA’s OISST the last 2 months. They used to be within ~0.1 apart on avg. I don’t know why, but it’s possible Alex’s OISST has been skewed a few tenths higher due to a bug for all I know. -Even after taking into account both a possible bug in Alex’s graph and GW, ‘26 looks like it would still be at a record in 3.4.

Maybe they tried to execute the NAM in Tennessee.

Started clear then mostly cloudy from about noon -3. Then mainly sunny again

It’s perfect out there…pure sun and 69-70 degrees. No clouds here. Hopefully you cleared out.

Wow, what a beautiful day. The foliage this year is amazing in the Whites. If you any of you can get up there tomorrow, this is the day. Monday's fropa will take down many leaves but what a year this is.

1. The concept of RONI applies to all ENSO. 2. ONI is a good measure of the combo of GW and ENSO. RONI is a good measure of ENSO, alone. 3. NOAA officially currently has 1972-3 at +2.0.

I'm sure Will remembers the exact date too . I was surprised he didn't chime in during the nor'easter???

Any word on how long it will take Tropical Tidbits and Pivitol to update/reprogram their web sites and bring these new models online in the right positions and remove the old ones ? ?

Industrious. Slacker you are not.

Nino 1.2 really went for broke this past month. ECMWF September forecast and spread overlaid with verification.

front hovering over MD/VA

We can debate oni v roni all we want but you still have at least four different SST analyzes and climatologies and roni adjustments and scaling at the bom, cpc, ukmet, and ecmwf. So good luck!

Very solid rainfall ongoing here.

Last hour stay of execution from the govenor.

We really giving the flu and other cold viruses credit for cold deaths lol.

Well considering of all the people in the world that die from temperature extremes, cold causes outnumber warm by a ratio of 9-to-1, I must be doing the right thing for humanity.

Temp has dropped all day, currently 55.4/54.6 with rain at 3 pm. Closing in on 2/3's inch since it started.

says the person doing exxon's work for free

This is a huge downgrade. The NBM has been awful!

RONI vs ONI are not important to me this year because both are well above the threshold for super on the daily index, and will be for the 3 month index eventually. for records, I only care about absolute SSTs. similar to how we measure record heatwaves based on setting the absolute temperature of say, 105 degrees, not the “record anomaly.” We are currently above record SSTs in the 3.4 region.

Just under an inch and still moderate rain...about time!