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IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA. So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. Yesterday's GEFS forecast: Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast: Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad. All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

I would be shocked if we hit mid month without a solid warned event for much of the region....strongly doubt we make it that far.

I also see people posting to the effect that what we have on the ground "isn't going anywhere"....well, it's going to be near 40 today and tomorrow here on the cp, so last time I checked, snow goes down the drain at that temp.

The last few seasons have felt like eternity.

Yup. But look what we just went through with yesterdays storm …this is still an eternity away.

You're too quick. I deleted after I saw that. Lol

6z Eps

Well you’re looking at snow depth 2 days later?

Were you the one that said +10 for October?

Euro op was close.

This system in Feb or March coming in at 10am would most likely be white rain even if it were cold.

That same gradient yet again...so often you do much better than I do. 1" on the back end for a 2.5" total. Only good growth was at the end.

Bro, go do something else for god sakes. WTF? Please..do everybody a favor and Check the F Out!

MoCo-HoCo band! It's missing the 5 inch lolli over Mt. PSU though

Well 7-8 days away, we know how these oscillate…modeling is dung so.

Lock that max total stripe in right there!!

It will be in PA by tomorrow.

Had a low of 23 this morning. Looks like the south central mountains will be all rain this Friday. Looks like hopefully the north central mountains will get snow or a mix. Just looks like the CAD will be too weak for half the mountains which is weird but whatever.

6z Euro keeps the LSV in the game for a light snow chance on Friday.

The 10th to 11th starting to look like dung now. Hope it comes back.

The good thing that I see with regards to the mid-month ridge rolling through is that it is temporary on all ensembles this morning. It is always in the realm of possibility that the ridge is a pattern change, but for now it looks transient at best(3-4 days at the longest). That ridge, as long as it rolls through, could very well set the stage for the coldest air of the season(so far) to fill that trough behind it. There are pretty strong mechanisms in place to deliver cold air d10-15.

But I’m not snowenouthere and I’ll eat my shoe if wrong

One thing that might help this snow compared to many other storms is when we have to wait for the cold to bleed in before precip. Not with this one so whatever precip does fall won’t be lost to temps

I'd take a nice covering of the streets and ground. 1-2" would be nice. Anything more - and its a small chance - would be gravy.