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Regarding the lake breeze, again I’m about 2 miles north and 2 miles west of lake village The lake breeze ripped through here and dropped it to about 52 degrees with stiff north winds Around 4 o’clock the stiff lake breeze relented and we made it to about 58 degrees By around 5 o’clock when I get back from picking up my wife we were at about 64 degrees and the neighbors flag was showing winds out of the E/SE. After the tornado passed just south, and before the next rounds of storms, the humidity came back and it felt like a stormy night But just before it hit, SE winds and it wasn’t very humid or juicy feeling out Anyway, just sharing. I was glued to the weather and being outside yesterday

it's not totally alone and eps did nudge south with accums in WI, this could in fact be your moment

Whatever you want to call it…it has more momentum on the BD angle of the front. The “cold” over upstate NY gets bullied out pretty easily by the WAA push.

Seems weird. They went off for about 90 seconds right when our phones buzzed. I know you know what you are talking about, just not sure I agree with it This morning has been a trip realizing how close it was. Definitely let my guard down due to how quickly the sirens came on and then turned off

I would agree. The remnant outflow was clearly visible on satellite for a long time before the cell interacted with it. It appeared to move south for several miles and then became stationary.

someone who is good lucky should start a thread...

When will watches be issued?

Someone mentioned last night that they shut the sirens off. That is the typical procedure. Once a tornado warning is issued, they sound sound the sirens, usually for 2-3 minutes, depending on the jurisdiction, then shut down. Another misnomer is that they sound them when the threat has passed. The sirens will sometimes be sounded a second time if it's a long leashed warning, say 15 minutes or more before the tornado actually gets close to the siren's warning area. As someone who used to work on them, you don't want to hear that for 15-30 minutes if you live near the siren.

lol GFS consistently giving us biblical amounts. Can’t wait for the inevitable cave. thinking 3-6 is a good first guess here

Watched that storm on HiRes Sat throughout its life and that was the most impressive sustained updraft with intense rotation up through 50-60k ft I've seen in our sub. I'm also curious how that early lake breeze that moved inland and stalled right around the IKK area affected it. That storm sure looked like it got rooted into that stalled outflow boundary that collided with the warm front. Some extra enhancement there? Thats a rare updraft for even TX hail country to be juggling 5-6 inchers 5 miles in the air. Truly epic updraft.

This is true remember last month when some well known not to be named METS online were discounting the chances of any snow the last half of February ?

Technically not a back door front. Not according to WPC's last analysis. It 'sa front coming down steeply from the N but it's not back dooring this is more synoptically driven than a meso-beta scaled BD effect. Also, with that high building ESE toward the Maritime the way it is modeled to do so means that there is no way to 'retreat' or really even mix out that mass prior to main frontal sweep early tomorrow. Case closed. enjoy you're dog shit New England curse.

I potentially have jury duty tomorrow. I fully expect a wave to form on the front that the models aren't currently picking up on and it will bury us under 14-20" of snow tomorrow morning while I'm on the road. 54F

using an off hour run of the GFS OP

Should get well into the 50s today

euro more of a thunderstorm look here while ukie/gfs selling some cement either way, should be another nice chunk of qpf to keep the d1 away free bowme

39 for the low @ 42 light breeze, shop heat back on....

Another 1.7" of snow in the books. And tomorrow night could be another 6+" along the shore here.

Yes some years the sun angle is not as high and the ground temp has a significant influence on higher up levels of the atmosphere along with temps being in the 40's for weeks prior and next weeks cold outbreak along with the other cold outbreaks to follow on guidance doesn't count - welcome to the weather world of Phileaglesfan712....

Just put on a new roof two summers ago

lol, yeah. Roofers gonna be making some big money around here. Alas, needed new gutters anyways.

wild

I think someone already mentioned this, but your shingles are toast.

Absolutely. It knocked down a ton of branches though.

And he thought he could protect his pack. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=G3147&hours=168