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That's funny as hell !!!!

That’s wild. Was absolutely never a thing when I was growing up here. The only deer then were on the barrier islands and way out east. Nothing in western Suffolk or Nassau

The mean gets down to a mere +10, which compares to +14-15 on the prior run and +18 on several runs before that! I estimate 35-40 % of members with a very early season major SSW (10 mb wind reversal), by far the highest yet! Here’s a 3 run animation showing the weaker SPV trend: The last times late Nov/early Dec was this weak was 2009-10, 2000-1, and 1996-7 with 2016-7 almost as weak. The last time there was an actual major SSW (reversal) in late Nov or early Dec was way back on 12/7/1987! The last time there was one at any point in Nov or Dec was on 12/29/2001. Before that there was 12/16/1998, the aforementioned 12/7/1987, the legendary 12/31/1984, 12/3/1981, 11/24/1968, 12/7/1965, and 11/30/1958. So, it having been a whopping 24 years since the last Nov or Dec major SSW meaning we’re extremely overdue. Prior to the current 24 year drought, the longest on record between early season majors was 13 years followed by 11 years. The current average return period is 8 years. Regarding these 8 early major SSWs, how many were after allowing for a lag period followed by a notable long cold period in a good portion of the E US? -12/29/2001: no notable cold -12/16/1998: cold 1-3 weeks later -12/7/1987: cold 3-6 weeks later including intense cold 4-5 weeks later -12/31/1984: cold 2-6 weeks later including extreme cold 3 weeks later -12/3/1981: cold 1-7 weeks later including extreme cold 5 weeks later -11/24/1968: cold 2-7 weeks later -12/7/1965: cold 5-9 weeks later including extreme cold 7 weeks later -11/30/1958: cold 1-6 weeks later So, 7 of the 8 early season major SSWs were followed by cold domination starting mainly 1-3 weeks later and lasting for 2-6 weeks with a one week period of intense cold in 1/2 the cases.

Trade: Titans are sending edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones to the Ravens for a conditional 5th-round pick, per sources. 4.5 sacks in 4 games definitely a good pick up for ravens!!!!

Small hail here now. Or graupel?

Well it was definitely pretty large ice pellets. I didn't see any lightning or hear thunder and really didn't look at radar closely so I wasn't sure but now that I see Alex had a thunderstorm it was definitely convective

They are everywhere. I've already seen one accident in Muttontown on 25A, deer hit passenger side fender of an SUV. I stay in left lane to avoid any potential deer jumping into right lane from yards, etc.

Just missed hitting a full grown buck around the corner from my house. The southern area of Commack has deer, my first time seeing one though. Will have to adjust for looking out for deer at night now. What a pain in the ass!

First mention of flakes for the winter on Weather Underground! 11/10 High of 37 Low 23 with Rain/Snow

November 2024 was moderate strong and 2023 was stronger.

Relatively strong line of storms moving through the Pioneer valley. Thunder

we thinking first freeze in the cities?

Yeah - lightning in Litchfield County, CT... Was not expecting that... (Nobody expects the... oh well, nvm)

We had 6” in October and closing in on 1” in the first 3 days of November… good drought buster

I’ll stop wishing when the well fully refills immediately after a load of laundry.

Good! Hopefully you'll stop wishing for rain.

Raining

Probably graupel/small hail? This is probably the heaviest burst of rain I had all warm season.

Some long range confusion on the long range GEFS right now. It's the only model that has a strong MJO Phase 7 wave occurring But it's developing a -PNA look You guys are keeping track of this more than I am.. Has strong Phase 7 in late November been hard to happen the last several years?

Looking at mid 30's for us next week. Could be our first frost and freeze if it runs colder. That is early for us. Usually doesn't get that cold until 3rd or 4th week of November.

Pouring rain and lightning here! Crazy weather

Cool and rainy day here. Low of 51, high of 60. Picked up .42" today and .09" yesterday. Sun managed to come out after 3 pm.

Playing Cocheco Country Club in Dover, NH tomorrow. Should be pretty interesting considering the wind gust forecast.....

Thank god it's dark by 5PM now. I can come out of my coffin an hour earlier now.

I think the predominate MC forcing constructively interferes there, whereas it decontructively interferes with +PNA in conjunction with the enhanced Pac jet.