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Yeah going to be volatile tracking for sure. Jan-Feb 2014 had most events pop up in short to medium range. @Bob Chillmentions this. But the more shots on goal we get, and at peak climo as @psuhoffman said, the better chance we get.

It wasn't a good 12z cycle because the modeled trof structure got more hostile for a big east coast event on every single model. And this is occurring during a time period where the run-to-run variability begins to significantly decrease. This is a difficult setup to get high QPF along the coast. There's a reason why so few individual ensemble members on the EPS, GEFS, or GEPS over the past few days have shown big hits. It could definitely happen next week - and I'm rooting as hard as anyone. But right now, statistically, we are more likely to be skunked than to get a major snowstorm.

Oof didn't see the image of all the panel members, but it looks like under 2-3 legitimate hits for the 15th storm. Upper level progression is quicker, closer to 0Z result than 6Z which was a general improvement. Seems like the Ridge out west is more robust and pushing our trough along faster than we would want.

Me as well, but I don’t buy the gfs evolution one bit and even so, it’s ticking west with every run. The GEFS doesn’t agree whatsoever with the op. I think the CMC has the solution that looks most sensible right now. That first storm digs, climbs the coast and becomes a 50/50 low that provides the cold air feed for a WNC special on the trailing system.

I think I joked about that recently....Someone in the SE is going to get a snowstorm, SNE remains to be seen. Happy for them, but seriously where are our crumbs?

so give us your take on the models at 12Z...........

We so back. The bus is loaded.

Drink up kids! This is gonna be a fun week ahead! Hopefully....

Ok lets just keep this energy up until march!!! .

I don't think he forgot at all. Looks like a west and middle event - of course it will change iterations again in 4 hours so this probably doesn't matter. He was just saying the east looked ok too.... Overall, the pattern looks to be moving into a position conducive to something other than rain in the SE. Next step, get something within day 5/6.

Can we ban posts with model maps beyond hour 200?

These storms are highly unlikely to play out as modeled, but the multiple windows Carver's has spoken of are definitely in play. The Canadian would be 1985esque with heavy snow state wide and well below zero cold.

Yeah, basically the more the trough digs on the first storm the more it sets up the second storm to take a favorable southerly track. For once I'm not overly concerned about suppression after the cold air is established

Then you don't agree. Because he's dismissing the potential .

Can you just text me 3 days before so I know it’s worth tracking? I can’t do 5+ days of tracking with the emotional ups and downs in here

agree - still nothing to get specifically excited about except for the POTENTIAL

I haven't been this excited for a big snow event in 5 years! I know it's still far but him saying it was a disappointing 12z runs in my opinion is not right, the biggest potential for big storms not 2-4 inches snow is next week

-EPO/+TNH is a highly volatile pattern where even a slight difference can lead to the difference between a raging SE ridge and Jan 2014 cold. IMO the pattern looks like Jan 2014 at this juncture, don't think we'll get a big dog but multiple 2-4", 3-6" events are on the table, maybe even a 6-10" event.

At this point I think the only real thing to note is that we have a deep trough over the eastern US and several shortwaves that appear poised to dive in over a west coast ridge which may (or may not) help amplify the broad trough into distinct storm systems. Otherwise we just have to wait and see because (and I may be wrong) I doubt this will be a great setup for models to get right with more than even 4 days in advance.

Good luck with that.

We need a surface reflection in the southeast for the Thurs. event. Otherwise it's likely light rain/warm or an offshore low. Shortwave energy and low surface pressure in the Lakes region torches our lower levels. It's a symptom of a positively tilted trof collapsing on itself. We need more PVA in the south, not the Lakes. But we are moving away from that idea.

Weathergeek on one end, you on the other and reality hopefully in the middle. .

Looked pretty good for West and Middle I would say as well - I think sometimes we forget the forum is the entire state lol

GEFS still not thrilled about the 15th.

Decided to finally read up my Northeast Snowstorms book now that I have the tools to understand it. Will be taking some notes and sharing them here later to help in the future tracking.