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Yeah nice opposite correlation the last 3 years lol. Meanwhile the CANSIPS can't even get days 1-5 right.

When I die and go to purgatory I expect the weather will be just like this forever

Convection has not been persistent enough. For developing systems, you do not want irregular blobs pulsing. There has been no curved banding evident yet for the system. 1016 mb c.p. shows a high environmental pressure field w/ synoptic gradient weak from the high centers to its NE and W 99L is in a very narrow margin area. Look at the WV loop attached, Strong shear evident t toe S, more starting to press in from the NW, and deformation zones N-W-S. 18z SHIPS output environment is not good. Shear is high and 700-500 RH quite low.. https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2026/al992026/stext/26091818AL9926_ships.txt Intensity models usually for nascent systems are bullish in taking them to min TS quickly, but about half of them currently do not even do that. A testament to this Atlantic season I suppose when nothing can go "right!" TD status appears mdt-high, but TS is more of challenge.

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

^Much higher correlation in the Southern Hemisphere Winter, wonder if it means Northern Hemisphere Winter will respond more

You sure? You better ask @EastCoast NPZ lol.

Just brutal

Different visual on the AAM, but to the point of the latitude AAM chart posted. It's telling the same story. Namely that the tropics and SH are still in the spotlight WRT +AAM. Meanwhile the NH, is still on the sidelines for the most part. Very clearly broken down on the bottom half of the chart via regional contributions. Which remain around neutral for the NH components. One other thing to note is regarding the +AAM spike upcoming. That looks to be a byproduct of a recent rather large +MT event in the SH (Andes) mostly. Which is the same thing that happened with the previous ones we've seen to date thus far. So that's not too surprising given the state of the SH vs NH as discussed above and in this thread. These are all obs, not a forecast. We'll see how it goes from here but the NH apparently still needs to be brought into this game as of right now.

There may very well be a reduction in the # of storms due to GW because it has warmed the poles much more than the tropics. Because tropical systems bring heat out of the tropics to higher latitudes, it’s possible that the lower contrast means fewer storms albeit with perhaps stronger storms on average due to the warming oceans. Indeed, we’ve had stronger storms in the Atlantic basin with more cat 5 since 2016 per year than for the prior period. But OTOH, I do wonder if just having warmer oceans is enough to generate stronger storms. Isn’t it the contrast of the avg tropical ocean temp vs the avg global temp that matters most? The oceans in the tropical/subtropical regions are obviously warmer, but the rest of the globe is warmer, too. It used to be that ~79F was a crucial SST to support TCG. Is that crucial SST going to warm up due to GW? Your thoughts?

0.25" of anvil rain here. More rounds of rain to come.

Sunday looks shot, but if we stay dry most of the week it may be mostly 60s with 40s/50s at night. It's just a lot of NE flow.

It's early in terms of timing, but Sunday afternoon/evening appear to have the highest chance of heavier rain.

Look at how bad it did south of the Aleutian islands That's why seasonal models showing a -200dm +PNA this Feb I don't think will be right. The pattern hasn't been happening recently.

Models keep on wavering from a significant cool shot to maybe a backdoor front that would mostly benefit the East. I honestly hope for just normal temps by the end of September. This never ending summer has run it's course. 84 for a high today which is stupid for here.

I hope the rain holds off until the evening. I'm having a house warming party Sunday afternoon and there's 20 people coming. I'm hoping to be able to use the deck for an indoor/ outdoor party.

Do you believe in the magic of the Equinox?

Mine has too, hope to thicken the lawn this fall.

We aren't there yet. This upcoming period is probably only marginally related to the Nino. The atmospheric response in our area will likely become more notable in another month or so. Right now its about obliterating the drought. Concern about the thermals is way out there, and we know it will be problematic.

Nothing at 5pm

The signal that Katrina was the sure sign of global warming causing ever increasing destruction to the USA was Gore style hype.

I mean it is a niño, precip isn’t a problem. It’s the thermals you gotta watch come wintertime.