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You continuously come on here with these snarky gotcha-style posts which misquote me. I was discussing with you how the mismatch analogs were colder and not warmer than what the Euro seasonal was forecasting for last winter. And that the mismatch years had significant differences from 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11. The common thread was the PNA mismatch and not a specific snowfall or temperature outcome. But I will chalk it up to misdirected anger on your part at how bad the winters have been in Boston since the 2018-2019. But it’s still a very bad look on your part and a few other posters. We have seen numerous examples in recent years how these current patterns have become warmer and less snowy than when a similar process like a mismatch occurred in this much warmer climate. I use a data driven approach to seasonal forecasting and release more specific outcomes when the data presents itself. My first call from last October was that it would be more of a +PNA mismatch than the models were calling for. This turned out to be correct. But I had to wait until the winter got underway to see the exact magnitude which was record breaking. Extremes like that are very tough to get ahead of time. So I was just happy to get the directional trend correct and let the finer details work themselves out. Next I posted my snowfall outlook in December when that early indicator pointed toward another below average season. So I was correct to say back in October that there were other factors working against snowfall and temperature outcomes of the previous mismatch years. But the magnitude of how much warmer and especially less snowy than previous mismatch winters would become took time to unfold. In the old days, a La Niña mismatch winter like 2024-2025 would have become a slam dunk cold and snowy winter. But the climate has warmed so much since the 15-16 and 22-23 baseline jumps, that these old patterns repeat as a significantly weaker reflection.

What about 5 miles away?

No, warmer and wetter than last winter is my guess.

Then move to the south Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

49 for the low on the home Davis, beautiful morning!

38 for a low here.

So warmer and drier than last winter but not as touchy as 2023/4 correct? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Low of 59 in Marysville with 57 current dew point. Glorious morning weather!

I called for the mismatch period and explained in petty vivid detail why I didn't think it would be as good of a winter as 2010-2011 or 2017-2018 ....I was ultimately too warm, but not by much.

Okay...lets poll this....how many in this thread think Chris would have been too cold if he had issued a foreast last season?

Define "difference"......will it mean a below average temperature season with above average snowfall? Probably not....but will it prevent a wall-to-wall disaster with some periods of poleward Aleutian ridging and some blocking...probably.

60 when I left the house with a DP of 56 and one McDonalds breakfast. Glorious.

I said it was cooler in much of the east than 2021-2022, which is was. Really, now you want to compare 2010-2011?? I thought it was unwise to compare a pre 2015 season to this "new, warmer climate"?? I guess we can when convenient. I think you need to start issuing forecasts if you want want to try to claim some sort of victory. I think we can find a redeeming aspect of everyone's narrative, but the trick is to put out numbers and have it verify close to reality.

51 here on the water at Pit2. Three miles away checking in at 47.

64/56 amazing

62.8 with a dewpoint in the lower 60s. SO much better.

57.3 low. Should be it for 50’s until sometime in Septorcher

A+ AM.

Skim ice forming on ponds. Skating soon.

47.8F here. First 40s since early June.

65/61

I only got to 60. Lame lol

Min 48.8° HIE 37° CON 47° SLK 34°

Low of 53, with the help of box fans I got the house down to a lovely 63 degrees this morning. I know this is a short lived break but I'm enjoying it.

65.8. This is glorious.