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Models correcting stronger with the blocking to start May as this El Niño is developing at a record pace for this time of year. So the growing El Niño combining with other elements will cap the high end warmth potential for a while. We saw something like this back in the spring of 2023 following the April record 90°+ heat with that El Niño which formed early also. New run Old run

In effect that is what happened with the El Niño in 2018-2019 which had La Niña elements preventing it from fully coupling. Perhaps if the RONI and ONI can come into closer alignment it could suppress the Southeast ridge more than we saw back in 2023-2024. But that is really speculative at this point. It looks like we are headed for over +2.0 again on at least ONI and can use this as another test case. None of the seasonal models back in 2023-2024 were able to correctly forecast the stronger ridge building down into the Mid-Atlantic. As they all had the stock El Niño composite.

So what we're really saying here is that a weak to moderate El Nino will act like a La Nina while a strong or Super El Nino will act like a strong or super El Nino with a SE ridge. Sorry Mid Atlantic. lol

The 2023-2024 event highlighted the weakness of relying on RONI for that super El Niño when the surrounding tropics were so warm since it amplified the warming even more than the ONI value due to dual warming centers in the Pacific. When the RONI paper came out most of it was focused on the La Nina intensity getting masked by the rising Nino 3.4s while the differential between the WPAC warm pool driving the EWBs suggested the lower RONI than ONI. So the paper never really focused on higher end El Niño events with dual warming centers lowering the RONI. So the new RONI isn’t really a one size fits all solution or an adequate replacement for ONI with higher end El Niño events. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02971-1 During the 2023-24 El Niño, the July 2023–June 2024 average global mean surface temperature peaked at 1.58 °C above pre-industrial levels, associated with a record 0.36 °C year-over-year rise. Here we use statistical models and a Green’s Function method to explore the causes for this rise. We show that sea surface temperature accounts for ~92% of the interannual warming, highlighting the critical role of El Niño diversity. Unlike typical El Niños, dual tropical Pacific warming centers in 2023-24 and an eastward-extended North Atlantic jet stream synergistically amplified sea surface temperatures across tropical basins, accelerating the pace of global warming. From an energy balance perspective, ocean heat content accumulated during the preceding La Niña and a continuous increase in absorbed shortwave radiation over the ocean drove sea surface temperature rise. Accelerated warming may push the climate system closer to critical tipping points, emphasizing the need for enhanced monitoring, mitigation, and adaptation strategies.

Will the Phillies win before AJ Brown is traded? Will there be snow in May? Will the sun go down before it gets dark? Will the Flyers win it all? Will my garage fridge still have beer in it come Sunday? Will the Sixers fool the NBA? Will it hit 90 in May? These questions and a whole lot more at eleven.

Poor Pats https://x.com/gregabedard/status/2047187856255295520?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

No Russini After 6/1

Yea, good example is the 1991-1992 winter season being a -QBO, which is of course, not a good match to the coming season. However, since you are going +NAO, anyway, it really doesn't matter much.

Yea, it's going to be a bit before we can glean any insight with that.

Our orchards are really got hit the other night. Many think they lost of 60% of the crop this year thanks to that hard freeze. It could be a really bad year for them since the blossoms all came out earlier with the heat, now this week… It is time to warm up now. How about we just get some seasonable weather for more than a day? No heat nor air conditioning needed for a bit? How about it Mother Nature?

Happy Draft Day! Any pingers this weekend? Who does the Patriots take at 31? Does AJ Brown get traded?

In the 2 days since this post, the projected next WWB is gaining strength on the models. It is going to spawn even more TC’s with the associated WWBs in their wake. IMO a super El Niño is getting very close to being a lock

Draft Day today! Temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow. Any pingers this weekend? Who does the Eagles take at 23? Does AJ Brown get traded?

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites · · 6 AM EDT 4/23/2026: While we'll be dry today, the next 6 days look like they will hold several rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms. The rain will add up to between 1 and 2 inches for much of the state. The rain will be welcomed by the drought-stricken south-central and southeastern counties.

00z model guidance in so far certainly does nothing to quell concerns for Monday. Could be a widespread outbreak based on just about everything I'm seeing, and the trough/EML looks to favor discrete convection for a pretty lengthy window. Going to need a dedicated thread for this soon.

Paul Roundy says this is going to be the strongest DWKW in history Very rapid surface warming in the eastern regions (1+2 and 3) has started. +5C anomalies showing up at the surface now OHC is exploding too, up to +1.90C. This is from a South American meteorologist: ^Translation: “04/22/26 Sub-surface thermal structure in the tropical equatorial Pacific. - Warm Water Volume +1.90C (increase) - #KelvinWave strengthening++ - #SubsurfaceHeating continues, emerges to the surface along the equatorial Pacific.”

We’ll be in FL for 2 months next winter….mid January-mid March. FL experienced widespread severe wx during the winter of 97-98 which is unusual but the coming Nino may be a decent analogue. We’ll see how nao behaves.

Heavy rain here

What we really need is a stalled frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure riding along it. Instead we get lows going into the OH valley and mostly dry fronts leading to NW flow behind it and cool air.

Following the Op Euro. Still the best model ever created

It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.

91-92 is one of those very rare situations, and I don't think it should be used for anything unless there's a major volcanic eruption, or if you have a hunch there's going to be one.

Confirmed smaller than pea size hail.

Big rain drops falling right now. Pelting my house. Now pinging... Possible hail.

I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.