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mmm. I'd say your 43 is believable
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77 in NW DC.
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A bit too strong of a S flow here. Only 67. GON 48, lol.
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Ha...wow, add the Canadian Extended to the list... NO summer for you, ONE YEAR!
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I may be running a little high on the Davis, but the backyard is just beginning to dry out. Most of the area is U30s.
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Some of the American long lead products are doing the same thing, though. heh...I've never been fan of the weeklies. Not gonna start being a fan of the CFS2v tickled shits whatever it is, either. I've found that beyond 10 days, they are not significantly more dependable than just running the regular ensembles members out to kingdom come. Until a D19 long lead is shockingly on point, I'l defer to those for entertainment
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Was thinking the same thing. Did a bunch of yardwork today and backyard is all set up for summer minus the pool being open. I'll be cracking a Tree House in a little while. Cheers buddy!!
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I'm actually surprised there's that much water in the air this early in the year. huh
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+1
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72.0/43
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2026-2027 El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Those were the nyc totals i posted btw, bc newark didnt start til the 1930s. I figured nyc was very close. -
That will bust with the MJO to phase 8 to 1, with 1 being the warmest for this time of year in New England. You’ll probably see the cold anoms in the mid Atlantic, Long Island to del Marva.
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Yeah... it really just looks like those long lead products are assuming the winter pattern never stops. I'm not necessarily offended by persistence - it is what it is. The onus is on Earth to change it. LOL Fwiw ... not that our druthers have any say in matter, but having neggie anoms in the 3rd and 4th week getting toward the arrival of he solar max isn't a terrible reality, necessarily, either.
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2026-2027 El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Mid Atlantic (DCA up to PHL at least) had a decent 6"+ storm in December, 1982 that was supposed to stay south in VA. Great Sunday night surprise as I remember it well. When I asked JB about it when he was still at Accuwx, he said he was jumping up and down saying it would come north but other forecasters overruled him. -
Caribou or International Falls
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UKMET has been one of the better models in recent years. It’s going ~+2.05 for Sep ONI and would likely rise a few more tenths from there. Then take off ~0.5 to convert to RONI. So, ~+1.5-1.6 C RONI in Sept and rising per UKMET. Euro ONI is just over +2.2 in Sept and rising, but it has tended to verify too warm although not as much warm bias verified on average in actual El Niños. This all suggests to me a mid to high grade strong RONI peak as of now. I’ll continue to update.
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Weeklies have 4 weeks in a row BN starting the 20th following the Neg Nao theme with well below normal heights for New England
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Wonder if we're getting some d-slope compression off the ORH hills
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Yeah I have lots of memories of this time of year in Lb. At least it’s sunny. The worst days are zero vis fog and raw wind. Those days feel especially cold, meanwhile it’s 80 and sunny in NJ. .
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75 ...73 at KFIT about a 7 to 10F MET bust. Brian can you confirm that?
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
They don't make 'em much better than today. Glorious conditions. -
Upper 40s in Long Beach. Water temp still around 43. Ouch.
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Maybe it will come down to the last game of the season. The Flyers will win in a shoot out and go all the way to the... Ah, never mind.
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2026-2027 El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December…. -
He needs to move to Alaska or something.
