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If accumulating snow looks possible for Monday out in Canaan, I might have to head out Sunday and hit up Stumptown Ales. I wonder if @jonjon has sold it yet. He was talking about moving to Berlin, I think.

Odds are the strat would only save New England for he second half, not the mid atl.

January was much cooler but Feb was slightly warmer lol

What is the Oct 2020 event BOX is talking about? Severe and wind .. no recollection

Could be quite the impressive temp drop between Sunday night and Monday morning, from 70 to wind chills in the low to mid 20s

It's still going to get quite windy tonight and there is still the risk of localized wind damage if an organized convective line can develop to our west today and maintain as it crosses the region tonight. But for a good 4-5 hours overnight it will still be very windy. There will still be some trees/limbs that come down and there will be some power outages.

operational supports its ensemble, and temperatures were quite chilly (around freezing, even in dc), meaning that snow might stick lol!

I agree. There’d be nothing bad about “front-loaded”. A “front-loaded” near normal DJF averaged out with colder than normal Dec-Jan 15th/warmer than normal Jan 16th-Feb would be much better than a “no-loaded” warmer than normal DJF. And Febs have been mild for awhile when averaged out (though with variations year to year) regardless…so mild Feb kind of expected in La Niña.

Yesterday’s video was great. It seems like the cold risks late month are increasing as long as the Pacific cooperates. Either way, I’m glad we’re back to serious discussions before Veterans Day. That’s a rarity of late.

Could be a fun 12z suite today. The high country and foothills of eastern TN seem to be locked in to a healthy NW flow event, but if that energy at the base of the trough can slow down a smidge and gain some negative tilt, many more of us are at least going to get some token/mood flakes east of the mountains.

Yeah. I suspect the new forecast came in cooler thanks to what is showing up in the extended forecasts for December. Unless we get lucky with the strat as you said, the Niña totally collapses into something like a weak Niño, or just plain luck, I'm already brushing up on my 4-letter word vocabulary for February.

I think January will have a considerable period of +TNH, but likely outweighted by a Pac jet dominated torch prior.

Awesome. Looks like we are only going to be in the 6th circle of hell rather than the 8th.

The Growing Season is ending

2025 baby. Whatever can meh, will meh.

I recall last winter, the Apple App did well locally for the first couple of snow events we had, and then the average joe accepted it as gospel for the remainder of winter and got burned.

Agreed. Unless we see a major SSWE and SPV destruction or close to it, I don’t see how we avoid a canonical La Niña mid-late January and especially February and March

We've had more, just noting that particular one. But I typically yawn at anything under 60. Give me 70+. Kind of tough here to top Oct 2021 for wind. That was NE not NW.

6z EPS (yes, this system is finally getting within the medium-range now), shows a total of 26 hits (at least flurries at one of the airports) out of 50 (52%), and lots of panels are still trying to snow on us! Very aggressive, but perhaps it's onto (or on) something?

The internet archive archives this site. So it's saved there if nothing else.

ok that was freaking fun. Such low expectations due to the conditions. Hitting chip shots with all clubs (9 iron from 90 yds; 7 iron from 120). Teeing the driver 1/2” off the deck. The wind blowing a putt into the hole.

All of them

Amazing that we don’t really get anything out of that massive trough the Euro advertises for next week.

Maples really popped in color along 25A.