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Hopefully around .25" falls, but could end up closer to .10"

That must have been quite the bomb cyclone. Wicked loop there with the low pressure center passing from Chicago to La Crosse, Wisconsin, and then drifting southwest into Iowa.

Same leaf-edge browning here, especially on ash. If it's cicadas, it's a variety that makes no noise. We're actually seeing some non-swamp colors earlier than usual, due to 5 straight mornings in the 30s and/or drought.

Light rain has started in mclean

That looks reasonable for up in my area. I'm thinking along the lines of .10 - .20" at most up this way.

It was a LOT colder back then though, so Africa was probably pretty temperate, especially at elevation. Well, for most of that time... per AI, it sounds like homo sapiens first evolved around 300,000 years ago, so they would have been around for a couple of glacial cycles and lived through the somewhat warmer Eemian interglacial. Of course, more importantly, the population was tiny compared to today.

I appreciate the posting of the UK model because like you stated it is often overlooked.

One of the worst forecast busts you’ll see. Parts of CNC got put under a FFW for up to 5-8” of rain in isolated spots and they won’t even see a drop! Here we went from 1”+ and 80% chance of rain all day to mostly cloudy I didn’t publicly call this but I said to my wife last night when we were talking about plans today if it was going to rain but I said it seemed the low was much further east than models were initializing so I wondered if we would get less rain all day. Did not think it would be this dry across the entire area though!

Through 10z Wednesday the latest HRRR has less than 0.25" QPF north of US 50 in Maryland.

LWX is back up.

The 9/16 12z HREF:

Not always. Sometimes in these confluence situations the northern edge is too far north since dry air just eats away the precip. If the ridge or confluence to the north ends up weaker, the precip can climb north.

Looks scattered and models won't be able to hone in on the exact areas that get a good downpour-obviously NYC S and E favored

Great Q, big ten fan! 1. The UK has been found to be a top tier model when looking at average errors over the longterm. 2. I like to post all of the majors, good model or not. But I like to post the UK also for some other reasons like: -it’s the only one I can find with definitive textual output that’s easy to post without taking up image space and it allows one to post the entire run for a TC on just one page -so, it’s also good for documentation purposes for when one wants to look back at it for a particular TC or a TC that never formed like the recent Invest 91L -this complete run’s textual output comes out earlier than all but the Icon of the majors -The UKMET is often overlooked. You see lots of Icon, GFS, and Euro posts, but hardly any UK despite it overall being a good model. So, I happily fill in that gap.

Rain spreading into Lanco now .

Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here.

Dont worry, we sizzle this friday and the last week of september + first half of october.

Ant would be quite prolific lol

there would be lots of wishcasting, posting of every model run, and radar hallucinations lol

it looks more like a noreaster to me, Larry

It's Karma if that happens, for the cruelty we do to other animals.

People will still say they can adapt, remember humans came from Africa, so if we evolve to that kind of climate all over the world, we'll just return to our roots

Yes! Not drought / rainfall related... 100% cicadas related...

This feels like winter and wondering where the cut off will be lol. Either way, if this kind of system happens in the winter, there will be a lot of hair being pulled out watching ACY get 20 inches of snow while this area probably wouldn't even reach 6 inches.

As do I, but again....don't expect the pervasive of an RNA.