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Looks like it's factoring Nina with Blocking.

It’s based in the peak MJO 5 phase in October. Since the MJO weakened into phase 5 after moving through phase 4. But even if that 2.42 made it into 5, then it would still be lower than the 2.76 to 3.35 of the mismatch years.

I any event, I do agree that the PNA will not be as positve as last winter. Not arguing that point.

-NAO only as good as the cooperating Pacific. Otherwise enjoy a cold rain in NYC

Wednesday night

Yeah but it's not been warm either. That's why I said a normal Winter is coming, which is unusual for the last 10 years. Also said the odds of something like 02-03 this Winter are much lower than usual.

BWI: 19.7 DCA: 13.8 IAD: 18.1 RIC: 12.1 TB- LYH: 11.3

Are there any metal working hobbyists that are interested in an early 80’s Hechinger wheelbarrow project? I feel bad retiring it and even worse if I just trash it.

I usually agree with Coz for the most part but, this time I see no reason to. La ninas typically have early Winter cold followed by mild Feb. He's probably banking on losing the Nina early Winter and thinking that should lead to a cold end. If anything, if early typical nina cold does materialize and it progresses to neutral and the end turns like he thinks, that could mean a long cold Winter.

The core of the winds moves through Wednesday night. It will be windy Thursday morning to begin, but gusts subside through the morning

I see 1.463 in phase 5 on the 29th and 2.422 in phase 4 on the 24th.

My estivation is over. Although I woke up and still lived in this bleep hole called Philadelphia. .

That far out in the future on the seasonal models is strictly for entertainment purposes. Hell most of the time the operational/ens LR models are as well at D15.

Agree on the wave reflection, but I also suspect it's followed up by a SSW, thereafter.

It’s more Thursday with the sun out and mixing

Still weak

Winter is here

It seems most NC AWOS METARs have returned. Only KJNX, KSCR, KMCZ, and KIXA are still missing. No MD AWOS METARs have resumed. Here is the complete list that are missing currently. KJNX.TXT 31-Oct-2025 21:01 83 KDMW.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 83 KCGS.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 96 KCGE.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 83 KCBE.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 85 K2W6.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 95 K2G4.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 93 K0W3.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 108 KW29.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 91 KSCR.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 90 KMCZ.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 85 KIXA.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 75 KFME.TXT 31-Oct-2025 14:41 75 K7W6.TXT 31-Oct-2025 07:50 85 The following MD sites are sending manually-taken METARs and are going to WMSCR: KESN KFDK KMTN

Spoke with Ryan Breton, He's taking Carson's shifts.

Weaker MJO 5 peak this October similar to the non PNA mismatch years like 2022, 2021, and 2016. I was expecting this since we haven’t had two back to back La Niña PNA mismatch winters before. So a milder signal for temperatures than last winter. Could still be some +PNA intervals just weaker than we had last winter. http://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt October 2025….Phase 5 peak +1.302… October 2024….Phase 5 peak +2.762…ONI….latest weekly only -0.3 October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7

Yeah that's just wrong lol. I will say, as good as he has played early in his career, I question how durable he can be with that lanky build.

Flacco was incredible yesterday for the Bengals, but he found out, like Burrow, that regardless of how amazing you are on offense, having one of the worst defenses in NFL history is very difficult to overcome.

18z NAM trended a bit more towards the GFS with the wind potential Wednesday night

I spent about 2 hours today making some phone calls to reach the right people who can perhaps turn up the pressure. This isn't going to be resolved overnight though.