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Another horrific acorn year is here. Picking up all these limbs and they’re loaded for bear WTF

Extreme Heat Watches hoisted

81 / 56 partly cloudy as some clouds move in from the north

JFK highest was 99 in 1949: Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) June 1 73 53 0.00 0.0 June 2 71 53 0.00 0.0 June 3 70 52 0.00 0.0 June 4 75 56 0.00 0.0 June 5 76 65 0.00 0.0 June 6 79 64 0.00 0.0 June 7 84 61 0.00 0.0 June 8 73 53 0.00 0.0 June 9 72 53 0.00 0.0 June 10 69 55 0.00 0.0 June 11 79 62 0.00 0.0 June 12 80 66 0.00 0.0 June 13 76 65 0.00 0.0 June 14 76 65 0.00 0.0 June 15 79 65 0.00 0.0 June 16 82 67 0.00 0.0 June 17 82 69 0.00 0.0 June 18 82 70 0.00 0.0 June 19 81 71 0.00 0.0 June 20 82 69 0.00 0.0 June 21 87 73 0.00 0.0 June 22 91 71 0.00 0.0 June 23 88 68 0.00 0.0 June 24 86 65 0.00 0.0 June 25 85 71 0.00 0.0 June 26 99 75 0.00 0.0 June 27 93 66 0.00 0.0 June 28 77 62 0.00 0.0 June 29 75 60 0.00 0.0 June 30 76 62 0.00 0.0 July 1949 JFK Airport Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) July 1 81 62 0.00 0.0 July 2 84 67 0.00 0.0 July 3 92 72 0.00 0.0 July 4 96 76 0.00 0.0 July 5 96 76 0.00 0.0 July 6 83 69 0.40 0.0 July 7 80 64 0.03 0.0 July 8 78 65 0.00 0.0 July 9 78 65 0.00 0.0 July 10 77 69 0.05 0.0 July 11 84 67 0.00 0.0 July 12 78 71 0.21 0.0 July 13 83 70 0.67 0.0 July 14 88 70 0.00 0.0 July 15 83 72 0.00 0.0 July 16 81 72 0.00 0.0 July 17 76 70 0.83 0.0 July 18 90 74 0.00 0.0 July 19 89 75 0.00 0.0 July 20 87 75 0.00 0.0 July 21 91 78 0.00 0.0 July 22 94 76 0.00 0.0 July 23 91 73 0.00 0.0 July 24 84 64 0.00 0.0 July 25 90 71 0.16 0.0 July 26 84 71 0.00 0.0 July 27 84 71 0.22 0.0 July 28 98 70 0.00 0.0 July 29 94 76 0.00 0.0 July 30 93 77 0.00 0.0 July 31 86 74 0.00 0.0 August 1949 JFK Airport Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) August 1 85 67 0.00 0.0 August 2 83 67 0.00 0.0 August 3 83 72 0.08 0.0 August 4 78 73 0.52 0.0 August 5 84 72 0.00 0.0 August 6 90 70 0.00 0.0 August 7 89 71 0.00 0.0 August 8 89 72 0.00 0.0 August 9 95 75 0.00 0.0 August 10 94 76 0.00 0.0 August 11 99 76 0.02 0.0 August 12 88 70 0.88 0.0 August 13 80 68 1.53 0.0 August 14 79 68 0.00 0.0 August 15 78 64 0.00 0.0 August 16 80 68 0.02 0.0 August 17 78 65 0.00 0.0 August 18 74 64 0.00 0.0 August 19 80 62 0.00 0.0 August 20 77 55 0.00 0.0 August 21 83 56 0.00 0.0 August 22 80 63 0.00 0.0 August 23 82 61 0.00 0.0 August 24 83 69 0.36 0.0 August 25 78 61 0.00 0.0 August 26 82 63 0.00 0.0 August 27 85 70 0.00 0.0 August 28 81 72 0.00 0.0 August 29 84 69 0.39 0.0 August 30 80 65 0.00 0.0 August 31 78 68 1.47 0.0 September 1949 JFK Airport Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) September 1 82 63 0.08 0.0 September 2 74 53 0.00 0.0 September 3 76 56 0.00 0.0 September 4 76 59 0.00 0.0 September 5 78 67 0.42 0.0 September 6 78 59 0.19 0.0 September 7 70 54 0.00 0.0

It's possible the srfc temps could be tainted at times with erly flow, especially at the coast. But weaken the erly gradient enough and with 18-20C 850 temps....you'll have one of those 85F ESE seabreezes on runway 090 at Logan while West Roxbury is 96. It does seem like we may try to trough more towards the 4th. At least on the EPS.

I think they also changed the product name from "Excessive Heat Watch" to "Extreme Heat Watch" too.

Happy solar noon on solstice day!

These complexes can be very frustrating!! Countless times I have watched radar thinking there is no way this is going to miss and 10-15 minutes later, it is like some secret power has blocked your backyard from getting anything fun!! Joe Lundberg from Accuweather kindly spent some time educating me (like 20 years ago back when JB and Ken Reeves were all there) about LLJ dynamics and thermal and energy impacts on these complexes. It really helped me and I fully understand what is happening but still amazes me when a massive red blob 15 miles or so on radar can be heading right for you and you get nothing!!

Also the occasional chipmunk! Did note 14,000 outages in MA and scattered reports across eastern NY and Northern New England... Bottom line is the New England region has an aging dense hardwood tree canopy with an abundance of diseased and previous damaged trees! We need either a derecho or CAT 3 to clean house...

Scott's right in that assessment ... it's a warmer than normal mid latitude continent synoptic and super synoptic ( tendency...) through 300+ hours. The GFS actually rolls big heat back in by next Saturday, and I'm not completely sold on the idea that Thur and Frid will really turn out that corrected. Even if so, it transient and would likely yield the bigger signal with at least episodic heat returns. GGEM is essentially the same.

Also the occasional chipmunk! Did note 14,000 outages in MA and scattered reports across eastern NY and Northern New England... Bottom line is the New England region has an aging dense hardwood tree canopy with an abundance of diseased and previous damaged trees! We need either a derecho or CAT 3 to clean house...

Go up to Gaspesie National Park, Forillon National Park and Percé next time. A million times better than Maine.

Don't remember the last time I saw this alert three days early URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 212 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106-201915- /O.NEW.KPHI.XH.A.0001.250623T1200Z-250626T0000Z/ Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Honey Brook, Lansdale, Allentown, Collegeville, Pottstown, Bethlehem, Easton, Chalfont, West Chester, Morrisville, Oxford, Doylestown, Reading, Kennett Square, Perkasie, Norristown, Philadelphia, and Media 212 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 107 possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday morning through Wednesday evening. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during extreme heat and high humidity events. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Low temperatures will hover near 80 degrees in urban areas. Heat will have a cumulative effect on the body as the week goes on as little relief will come overnight.

These models are actually responding to the rapidity of the ridge burst in the larger synoptic sense. The MCS zygote is already skirting E through the NP Saturday but then it moves into a favorable differential thickness packing where the ridge/heat suddenly expands NE... It's possible the CIN shuts the door in NE while the NAM is still "sort of" right about the outflow boundary.. I could see that being a burst of wind and a coughing shelf cloud field that doesn't have anything aft of it. So sort of mid way between the global and meso idea -

It's extremely intriguing. These type of setups are absolutely brutal to forecast in the northern Plains/upper-Midwest (where I think they are "most common") so imagine how much of a pain for us. Obviously there is going to be a hell of a cap in place plus we will have heights rising...but this could be offset a bit in a NAM solution. But this is something where if you're just looking at QPF alone...you could totally miss/disregard any convective potential and all of a sudden inside 12 hours mesos start going wild.

Congrats Maine.

yes ...it does, whenever in the winter the Euro's given the base a dopamine jolt and the gfs' shittin' in punch bowl blows the Euro out of the water

Yesterday's action:

I thought toys would be worse but it’s quite nice out. 77 at 12:45 with a 10 mile breeze that is refreshing.

Good call. My lawn gets mowed tonight.

NAM is fascinating .. it's doing a classic plains outflow boundary severe response on the trailing edge of a derecho outflow boundary at 11am Sunday, then... rolls that mess out in time for big heat numbers by 20z later that afternoon.... Below is 11am... by 4pm, it's 90+ with no trace of this and west wind everywhere. GFS does not have this ... ends up 95 to 99

I thought the GFS was schooling the Euro as some thought?

On a different topic are we going to get a big northern lights display from this? https://www.newsweek.com/nasa-satellite-extreme-solar-flare-us-states-blackout-map-2088388 Large parts of the United States faced a radio blackout on Thursday following a strong solar flare from the sun. The "extreme ultraviolet flash" was captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. The solar flare, categorized as X-class in scale—the highest scale, was triggered by an active region of a sunspot on June 19 at 11:50 p.m. UTC. Radiation from the X1.9 blast caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean, leading to a loss of signal at frequencies below 25 Megahertz (MHz). Amateur radio operators, especially in Hawaii, may have noticed the signal loss. Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation from the sun. The most powerful explosions in the solar system, they can can contain as much energy as a billion hydrogen bombs, according to NASA. Solar flares are classified according to their intensity, with X being the highest on the scale. X-class solar flares can cause planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

So is the MCS on or off ?

wow what the heck was going on in 1949 lol, was that the 1940s version of 2010? I wonder if JFK had many 100 degree days that summer, I know they had three in a row in 1948. Come to think of it, 1948 and 1949 sound a lot like 2010 and 2011....