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IOD is forecast to be neutral be early December.

Moreso from the perspective that the house was 75-77 at bed time.

That’s unfortunate. Harbaugh going to blame bad injury luck for this failed season when it’s obvious the problems are much deeper.

Grey and overcast. 78 with cool breeze.

I get it...but I want fall to feel like...fall. I want to sit down on a dark, cool Sunday afternoon with a bowl of chili watching the NFL games. I want to sit in my backyard in the evening with a sweatshirt on by my campfire. And it's gotta be pretty chilly for me to be wearing a sweatshirt.

Yes, the people we call *Native Americans* and who used to be called *Indians* actually came from SE Asia, likely Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia). The interesting thing about the Pacific and this colder denser water, it can hold more oxygen and nutrients and must be vital to fish and other sea life. So warming of the oceans disrupts the entire marine life cycle and eventually us also. We're disrupting the entire planetary life cycle which will lead to a global mass extinction. Humans won't go extinct but there will certainly be more famine, starvation, etc.

Madubuike done for the season.

1989-1990 was very extreme we went from record cold and widespread severe weather for Fall into early winter (December) and then historic warmth for January, February and March.

well the sun is out now so we'll make a run at 80

Snow in Spring is wonderful, it's when it's in the 40s and raining that sucks lol.

To be fair, last Fall was warmer than this but the Winter was quite cold, we just didn't get the precipitation timed quite right.

I got ~0.05” last night. That gets me to 0.95” for MTD. There is a small band moving SW from S SC that may give me a little more soon.

The SE US dodged a potentially very deadly bullet. Whew!

Well 11-12, 15-16, 22-23 and 23-24 all had roughly Richmond tier temps right? In our bad years (and there are many more now), we may as well be a southern Virginia coastal town.

I think it depends on how you define "snowy." If you mean above the 1991-2020, then, yeah, it would be extremely bold to predict that. The atmosphere remains capable of fluke heavy snowfalls all the way down to the Gulf Coast, as occurred last January, where it is much, much warmer in the winter. But if you mean say 50 inches, then, yeah, I think that's plausible. Because those kinds of seasonal snowfall totals require sustained cold and frequent snowfalls. If we say New York winters have more of a historical Richmond, Virginia flavor, then 39" might be the conceivable top.

Most of this ENSO stuff is over my head, but I do enjoy reading Ray's and others winter forecasts and reasoning, and have for like 15 years plus. I learn, and if I even only "get" some of it, I come out ahead. Also, I am a big time winter enthusiast, you could say, it's my favorite time of year for a few of my favorite pastimes (surf, snowboard), and just having winter outside my window. I even like to shovel snow, ha. And for my landscaping company that I work for in Brattleboro, I do tractor snow clearing. It's fun. Anyway, this page was linked on Boston.com winter forecast article today. It has ENSO info, so figured it was OK to put here. I do not really like the forecast temp and snow this particular Web site (the one in the link) provides, but I am never one to "shoot the messenger." https://opensnow.com/news/post/noaa-2025-2026-winter-forecast

If we didn't have these highs building in wedges from the NE it would be really warm like the mid south. No true fall cold fronts showing up on the Op Euro through Mid October

Of course not lol

Still kinda learning about AI, but after creating a few neural nets and slogging through understanding activation functions, gradient descent, loss functions, etc, it makes sense why these models (whatever architecture they’re using) could perform well on handling all the dimensions and chaos involved. It’s pure math and stats under the hood. The challenge will be dealing with the black box nature of deep learning algorithms, though I know explainable AI is becoming a thing. Computational cost is another topic as well.

Get us a non-shitty Halloween, then lets slam into winter.

is that a serious question?????

Yeah it's always both now. Getting a BN normal month is like pulling teeth.

If only it were either or.

The warmth is better in spring when people are sick of cold from winter. It sucks to have it now because we're exhausted of the heat. It's like people complaining about a cold snowy spring but the flipside.

I'm not so sure. The PDO in 16-17 was essentially an anti-analog of 13-14. If anything, it may be a reason why it torched from November-February. The PDO is too far negative to be in transition. At best, we might have a 12-13 type deal. Maybe if it continues to rise through the spring, then we could call 26-27 a transition year, like 76-77 or 13-14.