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Looks like I'll close out the year 2025 with 39.55in of rainfall. So we'll carry over the current drought to the new year. Maybe it will be a little wetter next year, and we can put drought behind us.

Yea, I'm ready to risk winter and get on with it.

Going to need Nina to end then maybe we can get some precipitation

Well that both well for you. If you're away on vacation somewhere warm. You're not going to be missing much. Might as well do it now so you can come back to hopefully some good stuff. Enjoy

The monthly departures at GRR are fairly significant at -4.3°F so far. Here is a monthly chart that would make even @beavis1729 happy. It has sure been a cold month in Fairbanks. They are averaging about 17.6°F below normal for the month.

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.

he said 2 days ago the 10 day would be dogs hit pattern

Yup, and we can talk about cold patterns two weeks off but unless the overall, large scale pattern shifts then that just means it's cold and dry. Which I guess some people like, I don't care I just want the drought to end.

what?????

One of my favorite winters. We need to have a few bigger snowfalls thrown in away from the mountains to have it truly match up. In other news, looks like MPV is on pace for a -5° December. Even though I would like a deeper snow pack, the ground has been pretty much covered since mid November. We melted out during the torch a couple of Friday's ago but it was covered back up later that even with a light dusting.

Every winter even the great ones take breaks. But the good December Ninas usually have a Part II in Feb or even Mar. The Part II often involved blocking that slowed down the Pacific and allowed one or two KUs. This winter has not been favorable for KUs yet because it's been northern stream dominated with the same fast Pacific flow, we were just able to capitalize on luck for once with smaller clipper type systems to get us above average for snow with the cold. 2020 had a huge Dec coastal storm, Jan 2018 had the huge coastal storm, Dec 2000 etc. We'll have to see if this can be a winter where we have a good Feb-Mar without having a major Dec coastal storm.

Enjoy the ice pack till Morch there

It knows where the drought is

Yeah ... true, and also, a large number of the engagers in here really probably don't have to capacity to follow along with this stuff. Have to be patient. So anyway, it's a pretty text book -EPO thrust and then 5 or so day evolution after the fact into either a quasi PNA or outrightly so ... whence the cold comes S-E the rest of the way to the coast out there. As discussed ad nauseam ...yeah it may warm up during that 5 days, but that's not the end game. In theory...heh As far as events when it gets more after that ... I dunno. Hopefully the flow doesn't end up too compressed through all that. It could just be warm, then cold then nada

We (North Felton DE) actually got a light dusting this morning, which was not expected.

Please stay very safe

Nothing new

That mild few days might be 30’s

Metfan comin for you

Theres another light snow event Sunday night/ Monday

One common theme is not much precip over us either way over the next 15 days

For me, this is the only map that matters. Until this map starts showing a sustained change, it's all just wish casting.

Just took down all the Xmas lights on house and bushes. Some semi buried in snow/ice, but with a few snow events over the next week and cold, didn’t want them to get more buried . If only could get the tree out the house today

Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

It seems people don't look at models, and just make their own conclusions/forecasts based on the emotions of others lol