All Activity

I thought the saying was big storms go northwest? That is what I have been telling my wife for 3 or 4 days now. It was just a year to two ago that models would consistently show a big storm hitting one area and 2 days before the storm came it would start a western shift. Everyone was happy who ended up in the jackpot zone to only watch models shift even further west the day before. I remember a number of storms showing southeast PA in the jackpot zone to only be let down with a rain event because the low cut through eastern PA? I am not saying that will happen with storm but maybe we are in a good position if this is true. We can only hope. FYI - I am not a Meteorologist. Haha! That is what I am still banking on.

I refuse to believe this crap on the RGEM

Boxing Day

it's an AInagent that has been injected with all available computer models out there on the internet that came up with that track!

It's sarcasm but it's also true, at least at hour 60.

I wouldn't believe it if it weren't repeated across so many model runs on different models

The Icon has been HORRIFIC the last couple days and pretty much it’s whole existence/inception.

Ok later on we get some minor negative changes that offset it. Looks like it'll be pretty similar to 18z

0z RGEM is a big hit!

Can't tell if this is sarcasm (if so ya might wanna avoid that in pbp)

Rgem almost identical also. I dont know how the gfs and euro managed to shift so far from their prior runs at 18z at this stage of the game.

One thing I will say those are some high-quality graphics for such a new model lol.

The high res models, though at the end of their ranges, all very much dislike this storm for East Tennessee. RRFS, NAM 3k, HRW FV3, even the NAM to some extent. I don't like that so I'll choose to ignore them

how many teraflops to run this

assuming its even real, and not just a convective feedback phantom, as some have postulated.....

When are we ever not at that part of the storm? Unfortunately when looking at the synoptic pattern, it is a real possibility. This LP could rather easily be punted East, especially with the baroclynic set up near the Bahamas and the confluence at play. I am not saying its correct, just saying, see what the rest of the suite does. Also, I believe it has some of the drop sonde data. Of course, grain of salt and watch the patterns emerge as well as what the rest of the suite does, but I would not simply toss. Yes.

RDPS looks consistent

RGEM is five miles better tilted!

That lee enhancement

ICON wasn't showing a storm at all until 2 runs ago. Toss. I trust the Euro suite.

We can pray.

Oh, I agree. Been here my whole 33 years

The RGEM looks like it may want to play ball in its completely 100% reliable and for sure not innacurate long-range

At 66h RGEM might be a hair better looking at 500mb