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Mesoscale Discussion 1197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of VA/MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081704Z - 081830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard but a tornado and sporadic hail also are possible. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is develop early this afternoon in a weakly unstable airmass in the vicinity of an effective warm front draped across northern VA toward coastal MD. As additional heating occurs over the Blue Ridge, thunderstorm coverage should increase and storms will move across the Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay vicinity through the afternoon. Overall instability and midlevel lapse rates will remain modest. However, effective shear around 30-40 kt will support organized cells. Where steeper low-level lapse rates develop amid stronger heating, strong/severe gusts will be possible. Low-level shear will be somewhat enhanced along the warm front, as is evident in the LWX VWP, which shows a mildly enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodograph. Rotating storms interacting with the warm front could pose a risk for a brief tornado or two. The area is being evaluated for possible watch issuance. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38987851 39297781 39267736 39157695 38847623 38407580 37587544 36967538 36607571 36577610 36557726 36777834 37207889 38027910 38577893 38987851 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Was any rotation, or rising motion visible?

Smoky/hazy from Sugarloaf

Nice and sunny at the deer park outlets

MCD up... 60% chance of Watch

Decent is subjective, but there is rotation

In case the smoke wasn't thick enough by itself, the white pines decided this was the day to unleash the pollen clouds. Just ridiculous looking outside.

Looks like decent rotation west of Stafford on Radarscope

Decent amount of rain pushing through. Starting to get brighter as we get to the backside. Was actually surprised it did not get torn up by the mountains.

my brother lives in Lakeland.. I would hate it lol ill visit anytime of year though

The velocity signature showed up right over my house, but everything was, and still is very calm.

Special Marine Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1247 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Special Marine Warning for... Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 1247 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located 8 nm west of Aquia Creek, moving northeast at 15 knots.

Very confused

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Stafford County in northern Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1245 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Stafford, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Stafford around 1250 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ramoth, Widewater, Aquia, Roseville, Glendie, Garrisonville, Arkendale, Ruby, and Cherry Hill. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3843 7758 3858 7745 3852 7737 3850 7730 3855 7728 3856 7726 3858 7726 3859 7725 3856 7724 3856 7722 3855 7724 3849 7728 3847 7728 3848 7727 3845 7728 3845 7726 3837 7754 TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 233DEG 20KT 3843 7752 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

Tornado Warning for Stafford VA

It's too hot the sun is too strong here even in January. Dews creep up to 77 or so at night here by Tampa Bay. Idk, I don't get the appeal of living here. It's fine to visit in winter or late fall early spring but other than that? No thanks.

Tornado Warning Stafford county

Get storms at least down there too. Yeah I’ve been there several times in the summer and it doesn’t bother me too much.

WB 15Z HRRR shows heavier rains moving through west to east around 5pm.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1196.html

I usually go in July every year.. It actually doesn't bother me when I'm there. but hate when dews get 70 plus at Home.. I guess its a different vibe or I'm on vacation and don't care

Hmmm Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1211 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and Northern Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 081610Z - 082210Z SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue through this afternoon with an expectation that scattered thunderstorms will develop and produce heavier rates. Given the moist and sensitive antecedent conditions, the additional rainfall is likely to result in some runoff problems and flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery along with regional radar data shows areas of moderate to locally heavy rain falling over portions of western and southwest PA down through the MD/WV Panhandles and into northern VA. This rainfall is being driven by the arrival of a shortwave trough from the OH Valley which is promoting a northwest to southeast corridor of isentropic ascent and frontogenetical forcing along and just poleward of a warm front lifting gradually northeastward into the region. Meanwhile, solar insolation is seen taking place farther west across central and northern WV and western VA which is allowing for some CU/TCU development over the higher terrain. Surface-based instability is expected to continue to increase going through the afternoon hours, and with convergent flow along the front and orographic forcing over the higher terrain, there should be the development and gradual expansion of some heavier shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. It should be noted that moist low-level southeast flow is expected to become better established into the Blue Ridge this afternoon as well, and this may yield some locally more concentrated areas of convection in these areas. The environment is pretty moist and the 12Z RAOBs at KPIT and KIAD showed 1.42 inch and 1.62 inch PWs respectfully which are at or just above the 90th percentile of daily climatology. This overall environment should favor at least above average rainfall efficiency across the region and especially with some of the forcing that will be occurring this afternoon in the warm layer of the column. Rainfall rates with the instability driven convective elements this afternoon from southwest PA down through northern VA will likely be quite high and capable of reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour. The 12Z CAM guidance suggests that some localized rainfall totals by this evening may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches where some of the slower moving cells evolve. Given the wet antecedent conditions and high rainfall rates, isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are likely. Orrison ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

SPC is considering a Watch soon for this area...

Yesterday was a significant (derecho?) severe weather day for AL/GA/SC. There were late night supercells producing wind damage in MS/AR, long after the squall line exited the area.

We're still holding onto mostly sunny here although I do see clouds building to my south.