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1.98 two day total so far

Luck was still involved in general, as it always is....this is why I finished below average snowfall in each of those seasons, as I have each season since 2018-2019.

frictional convergence is enhancing the rain on the coast with subsidence inland

The big story last winter was diminishing snowfall returns from past La Nina strong +PNA mismatches. The past La Nina’s with strong +PNA’s from December into January all featured at least 35”+ in NYC going back to the 90s. Since this was the first time in 30 years that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax during this pattern, NYC only recorded 12.9”. So we weren’t able to see a repeat of the 38.6” in 20-21….40.9” in 17-18….40.0” in 05-06…35.0” in 00-01….75.6 in 95-96. The only times the Pacific Jet has been able to sufficiently weaken since 18-19, was during DJF 20-21 and January 22. So no luck was involved during those winters. Just solid fundamentals which allowed 20-21 to be the only snowy season in NYC out of the last 7. But there were some issues during December 2020. First, the Greenland block linked up with the Southeast ridge causing the storm to track very close to ACY. This shifted the record 40” snows to go inland near BGM instead of closer to the coastal plain. But thankfully, the late January into early February event took the classic KU track and delivered for much of the region. The January 22 pattern favored eastern areas for the heaviest snows. But it was still a great month for snow and cold due to the classic MJO 8 pattern. January 22 was the last both cold and snowy winter month for many across the region. Going forward we’ll have to see if maybe we can get at least one solid winter month for snow and cold like January 22. That was MJO 8 driven which allowed the Pacific Jet to weaken for a short period. As the Pacific Jet was really dominant in the other two winter months that year.

We have to bring in the Global South too. I see that some people want to give African nations a pass, but those are nations that are experiencing rapid population growth, we can't skip them either.

I feel the beach erosion along the NJ Shore is going to be a lot worse due to the more NNE wind component rather a more easterly one. Look at any of the beach webcams and that current is hauling north to south.

Could be interesting for a few hours early AM from just north of Los Angeles to just north of San Diego

ugh that reminds me of being up in NE PA when there's a race going on at Pocono Raceway. Traffic jam for miles as if I'm back in NY lol. Actually worse out there.....

Yep it shocks me when people try to downplay 1-2 inches of rain and sometimes even 2-3 inches of rain.

There will be some large differences from the 2013-2014 season, but for some reason, only a certain charcter of divergences are being discussed. I don't hear much mention of the fact that this season is likely to feature more high latitude blocking. It's indirectly referenced....ie, the poor QBO match will be offered as evidence against the analog in general, but little analysis elaborates on what that may entail; a weaker PV. And I've seen the research linking the -IDO to reduced coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, and linking -QBO to reduced poleward ridging. Be that as it may, differences in an of themselves don't necessarily perclude a similar sensible weather outcome after accounting for CC.

Rain and gusty winds here in Brick, NJ for a solid 24 hours now. I'll probably take a ride down to Seaside today to see how things are down there.

Lows;EWR: 34 (2012)NYC: 34 (1875)LGA: 39 (1988)JFK: 37 (2012) wow October 2012 was really cold even before Sandy. 1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1876: New York City recorded its earliest 32° reading with a half inch of snow. Snow fell from Virginia to New England with 3.5 inches reported at Fall River, MA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1846's great hurricane was a Cat 5.... I wonder how strong it was in PA? Is there a track map for this storm, Tony? 1876 must have been an epic event, that record has held for 150 years lol.

.09” on the event so far and I’ll honestly be shocked if we finish with more than .25”. Have had some drizzle this morning, actually more than yesterday though. Winds are still gusting though doesn’t seem as bad as last night. If this was snow it would of been March 01 all over again.

Look on the bright side: At least we had more rain this October than last October. I still can't believe that we recorded 0 precipitation for an entire month.

Exactly. The whole globe really has to go all in. If bits and pieces do, it really won't matter much at all.

bands rotating in from the SE here...off and on light to moderate rain all morning-over 2 inches now

Which storm is that, February 1978?

I think that happened here in early December around 2008 or 2009. We had a light snow event occur simultaneously with our first freeze. I remember my mom's impatiens were still alive and covered with snow.

And you have 4x more rain than I've gotten only 13 miles away as the crow flies. But since I had a freeze, my garden is done, and this doesn't bother me one bit.

Yes and this includes China and India. The most highly populated countries cause the most damage so we have to start with them.

Pretty normal storm. Im in Winthrop right on the water. Gusts around 40

It has to be global. If ALL huge economies don't buy in, it is pretty much meaningless.

Rain seems to be struggling making it past Monmouth and ocean but models have a bit more through tonight so we'll see

Far Rockaway has been inundated with coastal flooding, this is a major noreaster!

Good thing that Columbus Day Parade was canceled.