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The weeklies have gotten even colder and stormier.

Would rather get this out of the way early.

WB latest EPS weeklies centers the coldest period in December around the holidays now with normal precip. Maybe we will be able to do more than dream about a White Christmas this year. Definitely does not look like a torch right now around the holidays.

The 5 day forecast mean has a deeper trough in the West and stronger Southeast Ridge than the typical phase 7. That’s why I used the term elements or similarities. Still no change in the dominant storm track through the Great Lakes into early December.

WB latest 12Z EPS: temps average near normal/ slightly above through Dec 5. Precipitation looks like it will pick up toward the end of the period but nothing extreme. Looks like any big storms will track NW of the MA during this time frame with the NAO slightly positive and the PNA slightly negative.

Fixed

Yeah, I was thinking that run had some CC infused flavor to it. The southeast ridge was pumped up like a Nino December lol

LOL Looks like the quite a few members jumped the train today...lol

I mean really this is just a repeat of the start of our past La Nina winters for the past decade, including the model delay of cold air. What I am really interested in is this....With this shakeup on modeling, does it displace the entire pattern cycle by at least 7-10 days IMHO??? That may well leave us cold to start January - maybe.

Its definitely phase 7.

I forget which winter it was recently…maybe 23-24? The EPS was awful all winter long with the MJO, November right through March. It kept showing amplified waves propagating right through phases 8-1-2 in the long range over and over again and it never happened once

The EPS tends to dampen the convection near the Maritime Continent beyond day 10 too much. For some reason the GEFS tends to do better. That region near 150E will probably have more forcing showing up in future EPS runs as we get closer to early December.

You mean 3 days

Embrace the dark side. Imaging watching the game in a ripping snow storm Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

all fun and games until one day you wake up with a memphis climo

Thinking the same thing @ Carver.Like Jeff metioned a week or two ago,its gonna take a couple CF's to beat down the SER,before it can get really cold,otherwise its just gonna be transient cool down i agree also the Euro suites struggle with systems out west,more than likely today with that trough out west.GEFS dont show much change today,not perfect but not as extreme as the EPS

this is a pretty obvious P8 signal. there is very little, if any forcing showing up on the EPS over the Maritime Continent

There should be some wild model swings, but we are gonna have to let the dust settle after the past 24 hours of models flip flopping. They may go back cold like the AIFS. They may trend much warmer if that cutoff is really. So things to watch? Does that cutoff leave the SW or does it stall out? If it cuts of and stalls -> SER here. If it ejects -> big time cutter w/ cold following. Until that gets worked out, just guess work.

I had a ton of posts up this morning, but as I dug through modeling one thing was clear...ensembles and their deterministic runs were signaling a big warm-up after the Thanksgiving cold. How long does it last? IDK. In a rare move, I deleted all of those posts. Why? When modeling moves in unison towards warm...something is afoot and it usually isn't cold. The MJO argues for a very sharp cold trend in LR modeling which is not present yet. Sometimes, modeling doesn't "see" the MJO until about d10-12. The problem is the MJO really doesn't drive winter weather until Jan/Feb...and maybe late December. Right now, everything is very volatile after d10. Extreme cold is still on the table but kicked to December 8th or later IMHO. Outside of experienced mets, nobody knows what is coming w/ that cutoff low and SSW projected. An amplified pattern appears likely with wild swings between cold and warm.

There could be some MJO 7 elements in the mix for early December. But the convection lingering near the Maritime Continent may not translate into a purely 7 composite. So with more of a split forcing pattern perhaps a variation on the phase 7 theme. I agree that the phase 8s have been a big challenge since January 2022. Even when the RMM charts indicated a phase 8 verifying, lingering phase 4-6 convection didn’t lead to the desired outcome. The record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent had been altering the convective forcing and sensible weather patterns.

Yeah, sure bet SSW is wrecking havoc on what looked like a good pattern without it. We have seen this many times during the past winters -> good pattern at range gets wrecked by an SSW. The only positive with an SSW is that it could put very cold air over the eastern US. My guess is that it dumps into western Canada and Montana and SLOWLY oozes west over a period of 1-2 weeks and modifies greatly. The big thorn in the medium to LR is a cutoff low over the SW which dives into Baja to start December. Until modeling works that out, the EC wx pattern is probably wrong. If that is real, that will pump a monster SER over the SE. There is ample precedence for this. Sometimes modeling is correct. Sometimes it is feedback. The 12z Euro goes absolutely bonkers with it. It creates a chinook over the southwest which pumps record heat into the souther half of the United States - like summer time heat for early December. I have looked at major ensembles today at 12z, and they are just wrecked. No other way to put it. What do I mean by that? Consistency is just shredded. In "general," the can has been kicked by a week at least. The Weeklies caught this first. I may just start using the Weeklies...LOL. However, the MJO and ensembles definitely foretell of a huge trough over eastern Canada by d14-16. Problem? The SER is flexed big time, and that standing wave is gonna have to get knocked down w/ several cold fronts. It cuts the bottom out of the trough. Seasonable cold looks like the outcome if today's iteration is correct, and it probably isn't. Let's hope the EURO AIFS and GEPS are correct, and they could be. For now, I am kind of watching the timeframe just after Thanksgiving. I wouldn't be surprised to see a NW flow event or storm pop w/ that. 500 vort maps are not missing by much when it comes to both streams. Overall, I think the cold is coming, but any time models start "can kicking" in unison, be very careful about expectations. I wouldn't be surprised to see a record cold outbreak. I wouldn't be surprised to see it completely vanish at our latitude. My gut says extreme cold is coming for the Mountain West. Why do I think this? 15 years of watching it do that 90% of the time. It will make its way here probably between Dec 10-25. Then we warm up. I suspect the cold reloads quickly and we see another bout to start the new year. While I am bearish now for early December, I still think we see a reloading cold pattern which is prob the result of the SSW. But for now, I am "out" on early December extremed cold. I think it will be seasonable to AN for week one, transition week 2, and maybe a cold week 3 before warming back up...and reload.

Well, yeah. It would take a little time to imprint on the circulation. Perhaps it's only one run but it was the same one. I would have expected to see some differences on the model if there were interference with the signal. Totally agree with you regarding phase 8. We'll definitely want to see the suppressed phase center itself over 120E to achieve the proper effectiveness IMO.

Models usually get wonky when dealing with Stratosphereic Warming.

See what it shows this afternoon,shouild update in about a hr and a half

Close to record heat the 4th if that were to materialize. You can see huge motherlode of cold in Canada. That'll drive down on the heels of a major cutter. Then a boundary should ultimately setup somewhere along the Apps overall until the MJO goes toward late Ph 7. or the NAO goes negative. Either will drop that Boundary furthe SE. IF both coincide then the upper SE should see Snow Opportunities. If MJO ph.8 coincides with Blocking, fun and games for the deep South likely, imo.