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confirmed tornado ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BLADEN AND NORTHWESTERN PENDER COUNTIES... At 103 PM EDT, a tornado producing storm was located over Kelly, or 21 miles northwest of Leland, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

Heaviest rain of the day here. Over 2.5” and adding up quickly now.

2.48 rain so far today

2.11” of rain so far. Hrrr had me getting another 1-2” we shall see.

tornado warning south of Raleigh (Clayton, Smithfield)

Another CC drop on an unwarned storm near Creedmoor

Over 1.5”

Well that’s what we get in October anyway…it’s mid October not mid December. A trough in the east is not pacific/zonal flow. And Vortex95 said just the opposite.

47 minutes ago- tornado damage near Fayetteville Airport

Yes, but if you use the slide function to put the forecast in motion, the cooler waters are making a bee-line east. Should they continue after the end of the forecast period (7/27), you'd probably at least end up with a La Nada next winter, if not a weak Niña imho. I guess the question then is why wouldn't the cooler waters continue east? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=global&pkg=ssta&runtime=2026101100&fh=1

Four tornado warnings in NC

Looks like it’s OTG again just northwest of RDU on 540

Time sensitive, but you can really see some decent convergence setting up in the western suburbs. Maybe angling for some heavier rain later on? https://mesonet.umd.edu/media/graphics/wspd_10m_plot.png?v=1791736880

They said mild PAC flow which is what it is . It’s one brief cool shot in and out . A brief of cool in a sea of warm. It’s not a deep cold long trough which is what was said . Look at the country

First flakes across New England next weekend? Kiss of death for winter?

System total is around 2.5” IMBY (estimating from outer Cocorahs gauge).

2.72 not sure ill make it to 3 but still a pretty significant event

2.05" and raining.

Hrrr shows an area of heavy stuff later circling the low. Whoever gets under that might pick up 1-2” more on top of whatever they got.

It did start its rapid weakening just before landfall. Now the sting development offset this somewhat, but a string jet is not a tropical feature. Posted this on the Tropical Forum. SAR imagery is DA BOMB! Enlightening for @CoastalWx? He proby will go, "how can I use SAR imagery to help me better for an impending or ongoing snowstorm?! Conventional GOES imagery SUX, I need something more!" ----- This SAR image clearly shows a sting jet, which is a characteristic of a PT/ET low pressure, not a TC. Also, prior to landfall, there was no coherent, focused wind center. It was quite elongated. So despite the satellite appearance w/ all the deep convection, structurally one could argue it had transitioned to more PT/ET than tropical prior to landfall. That sudden jump of pressure up 12 mb to 970 on recon when it has been holding steady 958-960 mb also indicates a rapid change structurally to away from tropical status. That suggested a distinct cool/dry air penetration into the core (front). Once that happens, a system is PT/ET. Note: SAR shows sustained winds max 110 kt. The SAR tends to have high bias. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/socd/mecb/sar/sarwinds_tropical.php?year=2026&storm=AL092026_ISAIAS I have always said when a system is transitioning like this, there should be a ramp down to subtropical status before PT/ET status. Why not? If a system can go from ET to ST to tropical, there is absolutely no reason to think it can not work the other way. This is what should have been done for Sandy for its landfall. A TC rarely goes instant PT/ET in just 6 hr. It is *process* that takes time. And I don't want to hear about the messaging issue. ST storms get names just like tropical storms, and the watches and warnings are the same ST or tropical. In fact, a few years ago, JTWC started assigning operationally ST status as systems transitioned from TC.

This is what the 12z Gfs drops after 2pm today.

1.6” here in Linglestown so far, 55 degrees, 2nd cup of coffee.. I love October.. .

He seems to strikeout as often as the white sox do..lol

Marquette set a record high of 81° yesterday. Detroit was "only" 71°.