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Nam coming in flaccid

GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says

Yet another mayhem tacking day ahead of us.

Re-weight models: Euro / UKMET → pattern control, blocking, timing GFS / CMC → sensitivity to phasing and coastal capture Ensembles → probability space and risk envelope AI models → early signal detection, persistence recognition This is why a west-leaning GFS + west-leaning GEFS can be taken seriously even if the Euro “scores better” overall. Bottom line Yes, the Euro is statistically the best model overall But that ranking is dominated by 500 mb and synoptic skill Northeast snowstorms depend on lower-level and mesoscale details that are not heavily weighted in those scores As a result, model rankings ≠ snowfall accuracy For East Coast storms, trend consistency and ensemble behavior often matter more than raw skill scores

Safe guess is warning level stays closer or even South/East of Philly. EURO seems to lead the train with the GFS being a clear outlier.

how do they know its one last shot. I love these blanket statements when nothing is set in stone as to what will happen until usually the day after the event.

Gets viewership

Up to a coating

Kind of annoying what looked like a pretty awesome period is failing down here. Yesterday was a non event, Tomorrow looks similar and Monday has its issues as we have discussed

Interesting summary on model scoring and performance from the all mighty AI: Why the Euro still “wins” — but can mislead The Euro: Excels at 500 mb pattern evolution Handles blocking better than most Is more conservative with amplification That means: It often looks right early It resists dramatic coastal solutions It avoids overreaction But in snowstorm setups: That same conservatism can equal early suppression It may be “right” synoptically but late on sensible weather It often makes small late corrections that have huge snowfall implications This is why many historic Northeast storms looked “meh” on the Euro at Day 4… until Day 2.

I actually enjoy the sun. Could care less what melts at this point, I just care more about getting events now.

Like others on here with travel issues - I have my first client trip of 2026 to Phoenix early on Monday afternoon - meaning it will snow!

I flinched when I saw "GFS MODEL"

Your 6z image trend above really does show things well, that's not a bad look. Would want h5 further south at the base if we could choose, and it is a bit north from prior runs. Overall though, with that evol I would have expected a big time storm further NE.

Fortunately, up here, we can focus on what looks like a pretty decent storm Friday and Friday night. I would have to think that how that storm evolves in the secondary that develops will have some impact on Sunday and Monday.

Deal with it.

Full clouds here, snow now bullet proof after the rain snow freezeup. 34⁰

Any Saturday morning implications? Road wise in Torrington area by chance? .

Yeah potentially. Heights are higher behind at their peak (compared to 00z) but also not as steep in general since the pacific trough jumped north a bit. Go back to the prior PNA look and maybe it results in a steeper ridge behind the wave?

Let's get these 12z runs rocking and rolling. Just a few more ticks with the Euro trough consolidation/orientation and the coastal folks are happy. Just something to work with is what I'd hope for. I think the AIFS is a happy medium and reasonable solution right now. A plowable snow along the coast is looking more likely now, at the least. My family is flying down to see me in Tallahassee tomorrow morning, supposed to fly back Monday morning back into Philly... We'll see if that ends up happening but I'm leaning towards a day cancellation

Only ACATT would cheer on overcast on a precipless day in late Feb.

Not until we get thru these next two storms and get into sustained warm

End of Feb. time to let go

The last I saw was that the AIFS held an edge 4-5 days out but they were comparable within 3 day or shorter timeframes.