All Activity

Very light but happy to see that the drizzle type activity here tonight is in the form of sleet. Hopefully that is the case in the morning.

NAM increasing qpf again

They have the DGZ too warm for a lot of that

Absolutely great to see this Euro run.

6z NAM a tad bit colder for those directly on the edge. Noise at this point.

Pressure map sane time frame comparing WB 3K NAM to HRRR; not much difference.

6z Nam looks a lot better than 0z...much more in line with other models

WB 3K NAM is warmer aloft than 6Z HRRR. For example, 11 am Sunday. We will see which model is wrong.

Yes, because it was the ONE YEAR I was home during this period of NAMM and the Grammys since they were cancelled for Covid. And WOULDN’T YOU KNOW IT…. A FAILED Disaster Storm happened. Of Course. FML.

Not buying it

WB 3K NAM does not have the thump like HRRR. I think that is part of its problem or the reason it transitions to sleet faster

Yes

GRR is sitting at -16. Daily record is -20. All time is -24. There’s some -20s showing up in more rural areas nearby though. It seems like higher dewpoints are holding temperatures higher some places. It’s hard to get extreme lows here in West Michigan as normally westerly flow off the lake doesn’t diminish until the coldest core of 850 temps has passed. This is kind of a rare setup where the 850 cold pool is stalling directly overhead with light winds.

8.6/-6.6

A slight improvement, perhaps?

Wow TWC app radar is showing snow is currently just west of Nashville. And future shows it in knox around 8am. Not sure how accurate their future radar is.

0Z GFS, NAM runs tonight appear to be coming in line with 1 - 2 in. total icing, in ETX this weekend. Either way, things are definitely still looking highly impactful there.

Nope it warms up just as fast

Nam so far is coming in colder initially and the high is a little stronger, lets see if that ales a difference

39/19 in Tega Cay with NE @ 7 Up from 34 at midnight Clouds beginning to filter in

Years ago, before I met my late wife and moved to South Park, and later Bethel Park, I grew up and lived in Westmoreland County. If you know where New Stanton is, about 5 or 10 minutes from there. Usually when a big storm like this would hit the area, I would almost always get more snow, and usually quite a bit more, than Pittsburgh and Allegheny County. After moving to the South Hills, and storms hit, my parents would always tell me they got more than me. Looks like here is one rare instance where I may get more than them for a change IF that warmer air gets to them and cuts their totals down some. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

I think that's more of a warm finger rather than a warm nose at this point lol.