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Expounding on this part of your post: Why would anyone necessarily somehow think (if they are) that we MUST have a "top 20" snowstorm sometime this month? I mean seriously. What if hypothetically we have a somewhat colder than normal month overall and get a couple of good warning-level events, with more potential on the table for another similar event in March? That's supposed to be a "fail" somehow??? I just don't get it.

Good in Destin Florida, woke up to 24F this am.....

Like an injured fawn limping through a field while a wolf salivates from the wood line.

The 12z AI EPS is similar to the regular EPS. Temporary ridging this run in the east starting around the 10th, but by the 14th, we are back to a workable look.

Of course that was the storm of the winter

definitely.

Save is relative. It can mean anything from saving us from falling short of climo to saving us from making the futility list.

in the real world, the short full on east coast window failed. carolina’s ftw, though.

90% of our winters end in disappointment. March snow has nothing to do with it.

I also have an ice dam. The roof melt tablets didn’t really help. If you have ice water shield under the shingles you should be ok

https://x.com/judah47/status/2017978663052947770

PD is a different date each year. Baltimore had a top 20 snow on Feb 19th. That’s layer than PD 90% of the time. So now we’re just talking 8 days? Yes there hasn’t been a too 20 event from Feb 20-28. But there have been big snows after that. It’s a fluke. If anything it means we’re due to get a storm that week! There are so many weeks without a top 20 snowstorm. They are so rare and some weeks have 3 of them meaning there are many weeks with none. The last week of December. The first week of January. January 9-21 have none! Why don’t you obsess about those? you do this with lots of things. You seem to try to assign meaning to randomness. The fact a super rare event hasn’t happened in the 140 years of records that one week is just a product of random chance. There are several other weeks without a big snow and I promise you if we had records that went back far enough you’d see that storms can happen those weeks and this is just random chance over a limited period of time.

I was able to clear some of my snow, the ice underneath is semi permanent at this point but at least with the snow gone the daytime sun should help. But yeah fully expecting the telltale signs of water in my ceilings shortly.

I'm not hoping for March to "save" us, but I sure as hell would be all in for a solid March event if we were to get one. And come on people, it's Feb. 1 for God's sake! It seems we have some people already writing off the ENTIRE month!! Again, I'm not saying we'll have an epic February (likely not), but geez, if we get a good event or maybe two (doesn't have to be a HECS), then have something in March, that's a HUGE win in my book.

2.76" here for January. Of that, 1.55" (56%) was from the snow event last weekend. The rest of the month was nickle and dime stuff. Unless things change in February and March we're going to be heading into Spring with a pretty large precipitation deficit. Not a problem now but it could well be by April and May unless we get some solid widespread precipitation over the next 2-3 months.

This isn't me punting to March, I'm just commenting on March's track record.

It does show some undercutting energy that could give us a mixed event or moderate snow if we could hold onto enough cold. Early for details, but it’s not a total shutout

Exactly. And I'll even mention another year that I'd take any day of the week...the first part of March 2015. We got a minor ice event around the 2nd, and then got a nicely timed wave right after a cold front passed that dumped 6-8" or so snow on us on the 5th. And it was COLD then too (for March), as well as daytime snow. Or for that matter, I'd take anytime in March 2014 of course. There's so much tendency in here to wave off March snow as a waste.

Look at the EPS from today that i just posted… we punt for maybe 4 days, lol!

I've brought this up before, if we're hoping for March to "save" us it usually ends in disappointment.

A March 2018 is possible. If we could start the cycle a week earlier and get a little more luck in our area could be good. That month was so so so close to epic and we got about as unlucky as possible to only get one decent snow that month.

Notice I just said February this time. I'm talking from PD-end of February we have never gotten a big snow. We've gotten a couple smaller ones though as you have pointed out. I did not say it was impossible to get a big snow in March...I just don't like relying on March for that because it's so rare and hard to do.

Of note is that the drought monitor still shows widespread drought conditions, even after last weekend's storm. I'd bet money January was below normal in many places despite the storm, and February may end up the same or worse. All of the relatively minor events in the past or yet to come won't add up enough to reverse long term trends.

And btw, the pattern we just had really delivered. We just didn’t have all of the luck on our side. Could just as easily have had 2 blizzards in one week, so if I see Jan 2026 analog again, I’ll by honking loudly about it.

The 12z EPS continues with a workable look through the 15th & then week ridging shows at the end of the run. There is no punting until March on the EPS…