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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Below is an analysis of when our daily climate records have occurred here in Chester County PA. Temperature, Precipitation and Snow daily records. Of note the decades of the 1930's through the 1950's accounted for 39% of our record high temperature records. The most daily record highs were recorded during the 1940's. The decades of the 1970's through 1990's recorded 40% of all of our daily record low temperatures across the county. With the 1980's recording the most daily record low temperatures. Precipitation wise the 2010's saw the most daily record precipitation records while the 1960's saw the greatest number of daily snow records. -
Good bit of boom with em
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Yeah the overall look on LR - weeklies never looked particularly warm, last week for ex. Talked about it then
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71.4° SCT skies Beautiful day
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is like 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole. -
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Chuck, I just dropped this over in the ENSO thread because I believe that's relevant -
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grateful for the comma head graze job as we could use the rain
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Typhoon Tip replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state. -
Might see a little bit of a spike happening in the next few weeks/months
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Had .3" yesterday and another .15" overnight from heavy drizzle. Still looks good to pick up at least another .5" from this storm today.
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Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27) -
Lawns looking great across the area
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Not really much of a signal yet, but if there’s a window for homebrew I think it’ll be early. Really hope I’m not hopping on a flight to chase a 45mph TS this season.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
What choice do I have? If it's a super El Nino with the RONI lagging the ONI like 2023, then it will suck...just pray for one good storm and an exit from Bluewave's warm-pool nightmare. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You don't want to bite the bullet with a Strong Nino STJ. I guess it matters a little more in the Mid-Atlantic. -
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
With any luck, this El Nino will provide the impetus for the exit of this west-warm pool oriented decade, as snowman suggested. I understand that may mean biting the bullet this year. -
It feels so hot already at 85, I'm dreading upper 90s! I bet on Friday we see temps sinking thru the 50s during the afternoon with showers and a stiff east breeze
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yea, this is why I don't think the Modoki is really going to matter. I think it's more about how it relates to the ONI. -
I'm probably gonna hit 94 or 95 today which is a few degrees hotter than yesterday. Gonna have to go pretty far east for that advertised cooldown today with the backdoor front.
