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I remember this happening during an SWFE back in February 2008 and it was a big surprise 6-8 inches of snow -- the changeover happened after the heaviest snow moved away and ended as drizzle. Everything had to be timed just right, the heavy snow came in like a wall at around 2-3 am and it snowed heavily into the morning and ended around 9 am as drizzle. It came in so quickly that it just didn't have a chance to changeover during the meat of the storm.

I’m modestly intrigued. I said in my forecast that if there were an EC threat this year it’d be a shorter fuse wave that develops in the western Atlantic. That lead wave fits the bill. But it’s all just speculation at this point.

Btw…happy 22nd day of fall!

I'll tell you what the "fake cold" is good for though, cooling surfaces down so that when it starts to snow it sticks better. Many times the city will get snow, but we are sitting in the upper 30s waiting for precip to drag our temps down to freezing. Meanwhile several hours earlier some locations were radiating and cooled into the 20s while skies were still clear. That allowed for surfaces to cool down nicely so that even if temps did jump back to the mid 30s when clouds moved in, surfaces are not cooling down from being in the 40s because of solar insolation from earlier in the day, they are warming up from being in the 20s. It makes a nice difference in terms of stickage.

87/81. Yesterday featured very intense rainfall and loud thunder in the early-mid afternoon hours, then after sunset, great lightning show. Today looks to repeat that here in S FL. A vacation marked by extreme humidity and heat indexes over 100. typically lasts from mid-late may thru early october, such is life in the only tropical rainforest climate zone in the mainland USA.

Do not have a great feeling about the ravens game tonight

Mabel or Mildred would be brutal oh, there's a Karen this year. That would be a doozy

I have never been able to unravel the mystery of airport snow-depth reporting.

another in a long line of excellent posts!

Welcome! Also, in non new met news - had a bald eagle cruise past me about head high over by the bridge .7 miles south of Monkton Station on the NCR trail while I was walking my labs this AM. He/she landed on a branch about 30 yards from the bridge hanging over the river. Absolutely awesome in all respects. Breath-taking being that close to one.

Up to 3.85" for the month now (3.53" avg), and that looks to be about it for a while. Another foggy, misty AM. Sun broke out for a while yesterday aftrn before the fog rolled in again. Today, and tomorrow look to be about the same set up before things change. BTW, MRCC has a new website now. Very cool with a lot more tools on deck. https://mrcc.purdue.edu/

OMG that is just glorious!

sun is sloped and tepid, getting more sloped and cooler ... soon 60+ dps will only make the side streets sweat - nothing else of consequence. the reason is because the sun doesn't dump in enough energy to keep both a higher dp air mass afloat, while also providing enough energy to simultaneously elevate the kinetic temperature. granted this is all more so the environmental limitation (at this latitude) by mid oct+ ... but is already more challenging.

That is an absurdly narrow band of high QPF. You have to think it’s a little more widespread than that.

This looks like a good pattern for snowy noreasters in the winter if we get the right storm tracks. Forget tropical threats I'm completely over the tropical *season* or lack thereof.

Perfect clear blue sky down in Calvert right now. I didn't see any clouds this morning.

That's awful.

We had PD1 in February that winter that fringed the area but was still enough for over a foot of snow for the city and Long Island. I wonder if anyone on the south shore saw close to 20 inches in that storm?

Recon will shortly tell us more.

Current SST anolaly

1983 was definitely the hottest summer here (and hottest until 2010), but what I find incredible about 1983's summer heat was that it was also our wettest year on record. We dried out enough for the summer for all that record heat from June through September!!!!

3k is nooseworthy too.

Kidding aside, if CON-MHT pull 2-4” and I’m counting hundredths I may need to leave the board.

Driest Year during the 1980s: National: 1988 Northeast: 1980 New York City: 1981 Driest September-August during the 1980s: National: 1987-1988 Northeast: 1984-1985 New York City: 1980-1981 Driest Summer during the 1980s: National: 1980 Northeast: 1983 New York City: 1981

DOJ just released the 12z NAM