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I have a basic understanding of that. I just see that it’s bumped up a little bit but we’ve been consistent with .5 to .7 for three days so seeing the nam makes me be very confident in 4 to 8. And this kind of scenario is a 4 to 8 or 6 to 10 kind of scenario I think.

The 6z GFS was likely the best case scenario & low likelihood of verifying, but my goodness is it beautiful for Sunday. Just 1 time could it be right?

I really fail to see how anyone can take these two images in and be at a loss for where this is headed.

I expect things begin consolidating within the next couple runs, then we parse details on ratios and location of the IVT. That is truly a difficult task in these setups too, so that could be a truly short term trend monitoring which I hate lol

It’s like dryslot opined yesterday. When something major is imminent, you are inevitably going to see some huge hits. It’s just not there currently

Or they basically said they don’t know lol to much uncertainty They don’t mention the op euro guess it’s not part of their thinking

HA, I didn't realize there was a thread for this already. I thought this was from several weeks ago

It has done this 4 times already this season and stubbornly caved starting at 2.5 days lead time. Why will this be any different?

Was there a 6z CMC para run?

That is about what I expect for a track...makes sense.

Getting some good rumbles.

I appreciate your wisdom.

Big clue on where this is going.

Very. We’ll track this though until they become 0…

Pretty locked low odds

The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.

I trust Hurricane Schwartz, Larry Cosgrove, and even dare I say DT more than a FB blurb only posting model output.

The GFS is just one tool in the tool box, but we don't base full forecasts on it. We also deviate from the GFS when it's on an island, so there are times (More frequent last few years) we take a non-GFS forecast approach and blend other guidance accordingly. WPC consistently beats the GFS on precip, and that's because we deviate from it when it's applicable.

I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both.

That east trajectory is going to haunt us, not gaining enough latitude for something good

What does it say though that most of the models aren't that great? Pretty much no one knows much until 48 hours out

Need some to start tracking over the elbow soon.

It’s tough with Facebook anymore. Everything is monetized and every weather page constantly posts nonsense, their thoughts, every model. It all brings views and in turn monetization. I don’t trust anyone or anything. .

Let’s get more of these EP AIFS members NW