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Radar has degraded so much in just the last hour. Thank goodness.

One thing I do like is stating "tropical storm conditions possible." Yet the actual forecast is for 15 to 25 mph *sustained* winds. That is well below the threshold. Last I checked, tropical conditions are sustained 39 mph or more. So there is hedging here is excessive IMHO. Gusts to TS force are not the same as sustained TS force. They are conflating things. I see this a lot. And really, how often does TCL and esp. ATL, get sustained winds of 39 mph or more? It is practically unheard of. So climo comes into play here. It would have to be an exceptional event for such winds, but Isaias as a hurricane and going ET are not by all forecasts. This is not like Helene from 2 years ago. Just b/c something has a non-zero chance of occurring does not mean you explicitly mention it in a forecast. Once again, hedging and inflating reasonable risk. Wording matters as to how ppl will react, and then you get into the issue of things being cancelled and shutdown *way* too much for a run-of-the-mill event. Also, Isaias will no longer be a TC by the time ATL gets sig impact, and perhaps even TCL. so their wording is incorrect. They should be saying "gale force winds", not tropical storm conditions. This is a slippery slope. Almost every winter storm on the E Coast has winds of TS strength, but you do not call them tropical storm winds! They should be headlining a wind advisory or high wind warning, not mentioning tropical in this case for TCL and ATL.

I’m going to be providing OBS from Wright FL for the storm. I will provide them periodically as long as conditions/infrastructure allow me too. I saw this highlighted on X a bit ago and it gave me some pause…. .

Latest satellite images shows the shear starting to effect the storm. Also the thunderstorms around the eyewall has collapsed.

Clouds now moving in

WB 12Z GFS

Thanks all. Tough cancelling it twice this fall, but it is what it is.

Based on their graphics out right now I don't foresee them issuing a Flood Watch. Hope that doesn't come back to bite them. Looking more likely that Isaias won't have time to weaken significantly before landfall and the continued east-of-track motion is aligning it more with the shear vs running into it. When the mid-level winds run into the mountains its going to be a fun time.

Imelda getting retired, but not Idalia, doesn't make sense though: Imelda: Cat 1 (90 mph), 3 fatalities, 2 injuries, $10 million damage Idalia: Cat 4 (145 mph), 12 fatalites (8 direct/4 indirect), $3.5 billion damage Idalia was the stronger hurricane, caused more damage, and had more casulties. If Imelda was retired, Idalia should have been as well.

That a hurricane, a made up one by GFS

Rain on Sunday is close to certain

If a HU is a Cat 3 or higher for a U.S landfall, that usually means it gets retired, but not always (Brett in 1999 is an example). Anything less is typically not. The exceptions are when it produces big excessive rains, and you can have only a TS landfall and it will get retired, like Allison in 2001 and Imelda in 2019. And exception will be outside the tropics or subtropics Like a Mid-Atlantic or New England landfall Gloria in 1985 was a Cat 1 at LI landfall, and it was retired. I think that is largely due to the rarity of HU landfalls here, so overall impact is more since these areas not "used to" HU landfalls, unlike from Hatteras S.

Disregard my last post I know the answer I should be pouring in Jacksonville and Daytona y 5 and 6 pm ,,, I should have left earlier today ,,,, I will just punt and leave Sunday ,,,,, sorry for the banter guys

From a sensible wx impact for winds, there is big difference if a HU is intensifying vs. weakening at landfall An intensifying storm is more efficient in mixing down the very high winds found only 300-500 m up due to better convective updraft/downdraft couplets. This is one reason why Andrew was so nasty. You do not have this in a weakening HU. The convection is not as intense and often only partially encircling the center, so mixing down of the much stronger winds aloft is less. What you can get regardless of the trend, esp. just inland, is some very high gusts due to the collapsing convection in the form of downbursts.

High Wind Warning hoisted for the WNC Mountains above 3500 ft from midnight tonight until Sunday morning. Wind Advisory hoisted for the Mountains below 3500 ft for the same timeframe.

GOM hasn't had any significant tropical activity this year so the waters are quite warm. That helps.

Thank You ,,,, and Suzook or anyone else ,,,, if I left charlotte today ( I can be out of here by 1 pm ) I could be in Jacksonville and heading farther South by 6 pm would I be asking for trouble doing this drive at that time today as I know landfall is sometime this afternoon ,,, thanks again in advance

The main issue some of us have is the double standard of concern in Tuscaloosa vs virtually no concern in ATL (at least earlier…maybe this will change). The forecasted conditions for during the GT/Duke game in ATL Sat. afternoon are far worse than those for even the tailgating period (6 hrs before kickoff) in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, the forecast for ATL is actually quite a big deal, which along with thunderstorm chances has a high wind warning and thus would be far worse than the typical breeziness of a Miller A:

We have been "spoiled" since 1995. Trust me, 1970-1994 was a bad time if you like Atlantic TCs. Not that there were not some biggies and some areas got hammered, but overall, it was quite lame.

she needs more time

We tend to recall the ones that did RI just before landfall, and that human nature and the wx weenie in us! But the flip side of the coin is just and important. What causes RI is just as important as what causes RW from a forecast POV, both short- and long-term. It remind me growing up, how frustrating it was in ern MA trying to figure out if the tstms coming in from the W would hold together or weaken./collapse. @CoastalWx knows this all too well I know. So that drives you to learn, figure out the deal, and it makes your a better forecaster.

Last night a lot of talk about how it would not get this strong and fall apart quick. It’s a new age now and a great increase in hurricanes that maintain and even strengthen at landfall

Looking windy and warm this weekend with upper 70's both days. Could even tag 80. Not a bad hand heading into mid October.

That's a good point. TIMING is everything! But I see far too often a wx event is taken as "all day" and so events that will clearly be before or after sig storm impacts are done and do not be to be cancelled. I mean, you now get *indoor* events cancelled for just some typical wind and rain now. Really? We can fine-tune forecasts better than ever now w/ models like the HRRR, RRFS, and HAFS, so we do not have to just issue a generic, blanket forecast. esp for the short-range. Having this capability saves an enormous amount of $$ and allows business and commerce to function better. It reminds me of something years ago. One evening, I went out to get pizza, and when I picked up my order, the person said "it's been slow tonight b/c of snow forecast!" You know what the forecast was? 1-3" of snow starting *after* midnight. So my previous posits about business and commerce being impacts is valid, and it hurts revenue for many businesses, big and small. You see how incessant hype and not quantifying risks/threats properly are detrimental to society. Cancellation of a major sport event is non-trivial as to costs, and it goes far beyond just that single event. They have to reschedule and that has downstream impacts often to the entire league. I often ask myself, what if the SB was in MSY or MIA, and there was a MDT or HIGH risk for svr wx for that day? I would not want to be the one to make the decision! In this case, the ante is extremely high on both sides! Actually, I do recall a case like this. In 2004, the Indy 500 was held despite a HIGH risk svr and a sig tor outbreak was likely. And when the event was over and people were leaving the area, there were tornadoes occurring in the IND area not more than 5 mi away!