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100 three days in a row huh

HRRR is active tomorrow

I guarantee you those differences are nearly all placement. I would bet my life on that. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I think in 2011 New Cumberland had confirmed heat index of 122 or something similar. That's the highest I've ever seen around here. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Adam overweights ENSO. That works in super Nino years like this, 23-24, 15-16 etc, but outside of that it fails. It’s especially egregious to do that during weak ENSO like this past winter (weak La Niña). So yeah, Adam is probably going to be more right than not this year not because his process is good, but because his process happens to work during super ninos. That said, sometimes over analysis can be harmful. At a high level super ninos are warm and wet in the east, whether they are east based, basin wide, +PDO, -PDO etc. This is where I agree with him saying it won’t be a difficult forecast this winter. It’s ok though, we got a ton of snow this past winter and the past 2 winters have been cold, so im ok with the warm lovers getting their way this year.

We've never hit 4 days above 100. I don't think weve had 4 days above 98 or 99. in a week a bunch will be in d3/d4 territory with no real break in 16 day forcast. 1966 was in a different stratosphere. In the midst of a 3-year severe drought and going into June with 15% rainfall. If you want to see something left look at the low temperatures not summer it would fly up into the mid and upper 90s and drop down to 60 at night. Basically we turned into Arizona Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

They can play with anyone. They have the talent, just don’t play to their potential really ever

Storm #3 Aug 1924 tracked is so very close Nantucket (look at the track attached), it is essentially a landfall. Splitting hairs here I know, but the RMW and core would be over land so practical purposes, this I think it can count. As for 1930s extremes? You want to talk about "wx whiplash?" (cheesy made-up term by the media, but sometimes you have to fight fire w/ fire!). How about this? In ND during 1936, only 5 months apart, all-time record hot and cold temps for the state were set. 121 F occurred at Steele on 7/6 and -60 F at Parshall on 2/15. The 1930s was a lot more than just the Dust Bowl for U.S. wx extremes, and for the globe as well.

This one is going to be bad. It also sets us up for a legit possibility of something worse later in July if drought doesn't break. I think the bigger story is due to the frost and our current trajectory, PA agriculture, especially in this area is going to have top 3 worse year in last 100. I have no idea just how bad it may become for them. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Pete is a wasted bandaid. 3 years from now he's Chris Davis. And they are not ready to win now or in the next couple years.

The CORE has struggled since mid 2024. No one has gotten better. Thats the problem. No money spent on FA starters doomed them as well

Another awesome photo!

Can we sell the GM and Manager too. This team is awful. I loved when they puffed there chest out after taking 2 of 3 from the dodgers saying they can play with anyone.

I had some testing today so spent far too many hours waiting in between tests. Enough hours to download 50gb or so of all kinds of reanalysis data for land, soil, atmosphere, hydro. Anyways. Here are the top heat analogs when taking into account hydro and soil. 1999, 1966, 1991, 1953. Here is some info attached. 2011 thrown in for recent and ungodly dewpoints. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

You’d be surprised about how nice the heated steering is. And the ventilated seats are great. I bought a used Mazda CX-5 that has both. It’s probably ruined me for lower trim levels from now on.

This team should sell everyone. Absolutely terrible. The worst thing for the Orioles future is how bad the AL is right now. They’re delusional.

Yes and I really like my cooled seats too.

Since we cant do cold and winter storms down here for the most part, I'd say lets got for the bit torch and set records. We know the piedmont can do heat no problem at all. We got that down toa science here

Moonrise.

So I saw the point fcst today for BOS, the NWS (NBM likely) had 104 for Thu. 12z GFS MOS has 96. I can see 100 at BOS, but 104? You really think going 8 deg above MOS at DY3 is reasonable? As I have said, this is not a classic Bermuda High set up, nor is it solid NW flow subsidence for big heat coastal SNE. So hardly a 1-2-3 fcst. There are many caveats. You have a dirty ridge for lots of clouds at times that can reduce peak heating potential. Waves of convection a wildcard as to mucking up the low levels across the NEUS. And why doesn't anyone talk about this, at least for coastal locations? A rule of thumb for sea breezes is looking at the sfc pressure difference between PWM and BOS. For the biggest heat period, it is 2 mb difference or less. That means local sea breezes likely, which again, reduce max heating potential. Sure, BOS likes to flip at 5-7 pm to an offshore wind and the temp spikes, but that often knocks off a few deg for the high temp compared to if there was no sea breeze. Oh, but NBM is "it" and to heck w/ human forecasting skill, knowledge, and subjectivity? This goes beyond just the met science. 104 would tie the all-time record temp for BOS. Psychologically, that is big, and makes the hype ever worse. This has real social and economic impacts, one big one in the form of cancelling and shutting so much down excessively. How is this a good thing overall? One should not fcst all-time anything w/o a darn good reason to. Models not all in agreement BOS will tie its all-time record high temp. That's one strike. Second strike, pattern recognition comes into play here, and for the biggest heat a solid Bermuda High or NW flow set up Like August 2, 1975 is historically needed to BOS to have something like a 104 max. We don't have these here.

I was also 17. Skinny, 110 lbs, and allergic to hay. It was miserable. My older brother had it worse tho. He cut tobacco that summer in Calvert county. He’s still scarred.

Under-mixing. It always seems to be the issue in these set-ups. Edit: Looks like the 0z and 12z HRRR 'only' had a high of 91, so it seems overzealous DVN was just being its usual self.

High of 89F at DCA, 90F here. not great.

Some lean times ahead in the Atlantic.

I agree with mostly everything you said, except believe it or not, this current hurricane drought is not the all-time record. That record is the 42 year drought between a hurricane in 1896 and the 1938 hurricane. But we are definitely very overdue for one to say the least! Also, it seems like the 1930s were extreme for both heat and cold records. You had the 1930s Dust Bowl and then you had the coldest temps ever recorded in February 1934. I suppose that there is a degree of randomness to everything.